Comments on: BBR Mailbag: Post-Finals Mega-Mailbag http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19632 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 14:31:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19632 Following up on the fouls debate:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6761

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19631 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 14:01:30 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19631 Good point, Gil. I just didn't want to try to adjust for pace on my own so I took the only advanced stat I saw that had it built in.

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By: Gil Meriken http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19623 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 07:53:44 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19623 Jason - It's also not true in the Celtics-Lakers case that the Celtics got fouled more than the Lakers. Taking the Opponent PFs on a raw basis, Celtics opponents were whistled for 1777 fouls, and Lakers opponents were called for 1737 fouls. Adjust for pace, it not much of a difference, maybe 3 or 4%.

PFs is a better gauge, as FT amounts would be impacted by being in the penalty.

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By: Gil Meriken http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19622 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 07:12:40 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19622 Jason - that is a very interesting question, as you get into the strange situations of "what happens when a team that gets fouled a lot meets a team that doesn't foul a lot?", and "what happens when a team that doesn't get fouled a lot meets a team that fouls a lot?"

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19620 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 06:31:34 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19620 Neil - Is it as open and shut a case as "one team tends to foul more often than the other?" In the regular season Boston's FT/FGA was 6th best in the NBA; LA was 18th best - below average. That is to say that while Boston did foul a lot, they also got fouled a lot, and while LA did not foul often, they also did not get fouled often. So while that may favor the Lakers over a seven game series to some extent, I wonder if they would be expected to enjoy such a large advantage in fouls called, as a matter of degrees.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19614 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 01:27:05 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19614 That's a great point, Gil. Here are the 2010 "leaders" in fouls committed per possession:

Year Team PF Poss PF/Poss
2010 DET 1822 7297.9 0.250
2010 UTA 1859 7722.1 0.241
2010 BOS 1816 7552.2 0.240
2010 MIL 1823 7633.1 0.239
2010 TOR 1819 7669.5 0.237
2010 POR 1715 7257.9 0.236
2010 DEN 1844 7810.5 0.236
2010 SAC 1827 7785.3 0.235
2010 IND 1848 7968.6 0.232
2010 WAS 1752 7571.9 0.231
2010 MIA 1710 7423.3 0.230
2010 GSW 1886 8250.2 0.229
2010 OKC 1743 7681.1 0.227
2010 PHI 1677 7556.2 0.222
2010 SAS 1669 7554.8 0.221
2010 HOU 1712 7799.7 0.219
2010 ATL 1632 7454.3 0.219
2010 PHO 1713 7836.7 0.219
2010 NJN 1643 7529.0 0.218
2010 ORL 1629 7565.9 0.215
2010 MIN 1699 7919.9 0.215
2010 CHI 1648 7720.8 0.213
2010 CHA 1597 7484.1 0.213
2010 MEM 1655 7759.7 0.213
2010 CLE 1591 7528.8 0.211
2010 NYK 1638 7783.9 0.210
2010 NOH 1606 7652.7 0.210
2010 LAC 1581 7601.0 0.208
2010 LAL 1592 7667.0 0.208
2010 DAL 1563 7661.9 0.204

Your impressions were right -- Boston had the 3rd-most fouls committed per possession, while the Lakers had the 2nd-fewest.

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By: Gil Meriken http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19613 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:51:02 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19613 Neil, instead of trying to gauge "Boston's inability to draw the same # of free throws per interior FGA as L.A.", what about the fact that the Lakers simply foul less, and also that the Celtics foul more relative to them (in general, not just this series)?

I'm currently trying to whip up a "Fouls per possession" stat over all 82 regular season game, and if I'm doing it right (this is where I'm asking for your help), it seems that adjusted for pace, my impressions match reality, as Boston and Utah are consistently at the top of the most fouling-est teams in the league.

Instead of blaming the refs for calling the fouls (I know, you aren't doing this, but a LOT of Celtics fans are) shouldn't the Celtics take some responsibility for actually fouling at a higher rate, regardless of who they play?

If I've done my "fouls per possession" calculation correctly, the real anomaly would be that the Celtics weren't called for more fouls in 2008, relative to the Lakers less fouling ways.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19609 Mon, 28 Jun 2010 22:09:31 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19609 Yes, the Roland Rating is a combination of net PER and raw on/off court +/-. I'm not the biggest fan of PER there ever was (I have tremendous respect for John Hollinger, and we do list PER here on the site, but I feel that it suffers from the same philosophical issues as TENDEX, which the industry moved away from 10 years ago), but I like on/off when used appropriately and in the right context....

Anyway, that's not really at issue here. All I'm saying is that when you look at SPM/DPA and the ORtg/%Poss/DRtg framework, LeBron's performance vs. Boston was at best equal to Kobe's, and at worst somewhat inferior. Does this mean Kobe is a better player than LeBron? No. There's mounds of evidence beyond these small samples to suggest that James' contribution to winning is, on average, fairly significantly better than Bryant's. But in May/June 2010, against a common opponent in the Boston Celtics, Kobe's contribution was at least equal to LeBron's, if not slightly better.

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19607 Mon, 28 Jun 2010 20:31:41 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19607 Likewise, I used various metrics to support my position. Not subjective nonsense.In such a comparable series, I question how you can object like you originally did.

I saw the entire series and remember how Andy got benched for the Jamison/Shaq duo. Shaq can't rotate, and KG had his way with Antawn.If you play on some stud defensive team you have an advantage in DRtg. That is its flaws, and I merely pointed that only over a large enough span would I definitively use it with confidence (say half a season or so). You know it is not easy to analyze defense.

So tell me how does 82games (basketball-reference is amazing as well, don't worry) analyze players? Net PER (Game score difference is related to that for example), and some kind of +/- ? That's pretty much my comparison isn't it? SPM and game score difference at key positions.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605&cpage=1#comment-19605 Mon, 28 Jun 2010 20:14:00 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605#comment-19605 DRtg is an individual stat just like DPA. They both scale so that the weighted average of individuals on a team is related to the team's defensive rating. It's just that DRtg is scaled so that the minute-weighted average = team DRtg, and DPA is scaled so that 5 * the minute-weighted average = team DRtg.

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