Comments on: Layups: Draft Pick Value Research

By: Mike G

Mike G — Sat, 22 May 2010 22:54:59 +0000

The odds of drafting and signing Gervin and Issel after the ABA already had them is pretty slim.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Fri, 21 May 2010 15:01:54 +0000

The odds of any given second rounder turning out to be a star (20+WSoRP) over the player's first 4 years is about 1.25%. The 31st pick has about a 3% chance; 45th pick is below 1.5%, and below 52nd has basically no chance.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Fri, 21 May 2010 03:48:40 +0000

That's why I said "probably", not "certainly"... But the odds against getting that haul would be astronomical. Picking each of those would be like finding a needle in a haystack of Cliff Shegoggs and Narvis Andersons.

By: Jeff James

Jeff James — Fri, 21 May 2010 02:58:48 +0000

Neil Paine Says: "Good call, I'm sure Justin appreciates it. I loved the graph w/ the Likelihood of Pick Results, btw -- after the top 10 picks, you have less than a 50-50 shot at getting a solid player, which is sobering because a late lottery pick always sounds like a slot in which you would get a decent player most of the time, but that's not the case. If you don't have a top-3 pick, you're probably not getting a star; if you don't have a top-10 pick, you're probably not even getting a solid player." If you had started drafting in 1969 with just the guys in the 2nd round or after (so guys who should have been available to everyone), by 1976 you could have fielded a team of Bob Dandridge Alex English Tiny Archibald George Gervin, and Dan Issel

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Thu, 20 May 2010 23:50:04 +0000

My first effort at smoothing that is up on the APBR thread. I used exponentials in both directions and multiplied together and quadratics in both directions and multiplied together. And a min value of 0. In other words, a lot of coefficients.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 20 May 2010 15:17:00 +0000

That was my thought exactly, it's going to be a pain to smooth that thing.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Thu, 20 May 2010 14:25:57 +0000

I'm going to try to create a smoothed version of that chart, because it is so pertinent. Unfortunately, it is exponential in 2 directions...

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 20 May 2010 13:49:00 +0000

Good call, I'm sure Justin appreciates it. I loved the graph w/ the Likelihood of Pick Results, btw -- after the top 10 picks, you have less than a 50-50 shot at getting a solid player, which is sobering because a late lottery pick always sounds like a slot in which you would get a decent player most of the time, but that's not the case. If you don't have a top-3 pick, you're probably not getting a star; if you don't have a top-10 pick, you're probably not even getting a solid player.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Thu, 20 May 2010 13:27:06 +0000

Thanks for the shoutout, Neil. I thought you had done the research, not Justin. I changed my citation over at APBRmetrics.