Comments on: Adam Morrison, Meet Barry Parkhill http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Jim_Thorpe http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-11081 Tue, 28 Jul 2009 09:58:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-11081 I am tired of seeing sports-statisticians using OLS as if it were the ultimate tool for serious analysis. In fact is really flawed since it fails to account for what it is called endogeneity. Notice that no matter how many variables you actually observe, there are many others that are not observable/measurable. That is why a guy who has never seen playing a guy cannot tell whether he was good, very good or great by his statistics. Whenever those unobservables (say, intangibles) are correlated with other performance measures, OLS fails to be "consistent" - that is, produces bad estimates. Look at your rankings in HOF probability. Manu Ginobili shows up with a tiny 5% which may well decline over the years. To me, Manu Ginobili merits more consideration since he was key in 2/3 rings and is a superclutch player. He chose to be sixth-man and reduced minutes for the good of his team. Being a good teammate makes you worse statistically but it is positively correlated with performance. Starbury or Baron Davis have, accordingly much higher probability - and none of them stands a chance in my opinion. Other methods like GMM are more suited and statistical analysis should improve in that way

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By: Greg Thomas, Ph.D. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10974 Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:19:09 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10974 Neil,
Interesting results with Parkhill and Morrison. I was even more intrigued that Mikan and Chamberlain finished 1-2 in WS/minute. Mikan's dominance is so underrated! Thanks for explaining your methodology of calculating win shares for the players from the past. Anytime you want to share your results for the 1614 players you have analyzed or even the best 100 or so, I think I speak for everyone when I say, I'd love to see them.

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By: ASDFG http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10964 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:09:28 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10964 Hey Neil, this is completely unrelated, but I had nowhere else to ask... But can you possibly do a study on what are statistically the greatest defensive teams of all time and the greatest offensive teams of all time?
I'd be very interested in seeing how today's era matches up with that of yesteryear.

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By: Mike G http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10957 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:57:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10957 I did mention Herrmann, but misidentified him as having >1100 minutes (he had 936). He was only there for 48 games, the last 17 of which were all 24-44 minute gigs. He started the final 12 games, and the team went 7-5.

Subsequent to that rookie outburst, he's had very little to commend him. I don't know about his defense, or where his shot went. The team no longer wanted him in '08, and the Pistons haven't found any use for him.

I guess I don't distinguish between value and ability (talent), because a skill that doesn't apply to winning isn't a relevant ability. A guy may shoot 96% FT, but if he can't get to the line, it's irrelevant. There's no basketball-game ability in that. It's like saying the ability to spin a ball on your fingertip has some potential; but it doesn't.

Anyway, it's generally good to stick to your guns, and put 'the power of language' to your chosen stats. Sometimes that will keep the door open for the stats' evolution.

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By: Justin Kubatko http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10956 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:04:23 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10956 Mike G wrote:

I named all the Bobcats’ players down to 1100 minutes; after that, Jake Voskuhl, Primoz Brezec, Alan Anderson ... I mean, this is desperate territory. You haven’t suggested anyone who can come up with better minutes than what Morrison offered.

You left off an important name: Walter Herrmann. Herrmann shot 52.7% from the field and 46.1% from three-point range while averaging 19.5 minutes per game. If the Bobcats had swapped Herrmann's playing time with Morrison's, I believe they would have won more games.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10948 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 01:56:04 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10948 You only find it to be a logical contradiction because you refuse to understand the difference between "ability" and "value". Morrison performed with a certain rate of production that year, production that happened to be strongly associated with Charlotte Bobcat losses. Bernie Bickerstaff operated under the belief that Morrison's "true talent level" was a higher rate than his actual production, and gave him ample playing time in the hope that his rate of performance would eventually catch up to what Bickerstaff perceived his "true rate" to be. Bickerstaff's beliefs about Morrison's true talent fall under the auspices of "ability". Morrison's actual on-court performance falls under "value". Due to imperfect information there is a difference between the two things, and in this case Bickerstaff appears to have misjudged Morrison's fundamental ability level.

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By: Mike G http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10947 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 01:21:25 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10947 Justin, your estimate of Morrison's wins added (-1.6) and mine (+1.4) are 3 wins apart. That is just about the difference in their actual (33) and pythagorean (30). So, to be more precise, I am not certain that they win more with him than without (since we'll never know); but I am certain they are more likely to win more games with him than without him.

You may be a 30% shooter from the arc. Someone may tell you to never shoot from there, because that's a low-efficiency shot. But having that shot in your arsenal, as an option, cannot hurt your effectiveness; it can only help. If you overuse it, it will help less. You can't replay the season to see if you'd have done better by never shooting it. You probably shot it when it felt comfortable, to avoid the shot-clock expiring, etc.

A low-% shot is clearly better than no shot at all. Sometimes there's a better alternative, and sometimes there's not. A weak player is better than a weaker player. Someone else, given more minutes, may suddenly blossom. I don't see anyone on that '07 Charlotte roster who, even in retrospect, was going to do that.

I named all the Bobcats' players down to 1100 minutes; after that, Jake Voskuhl, Primoz Brezec, Alan Anderson ... I mean, this is desperate territory. You haven't suggested anyone who can come up with better minutes than what Morrison offered.

So to just say, "He's so bad, he's worse than nothing", without offering any alternative that's better, doesn't seem to be especially useful advice. Unless there's some clue in there as to what's not quite right about Win Shares.

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By: Justin Kubatko http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10944 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:54:57 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10944 Mike, I see you avoided my question. Once again, you wrote:

"Without [Adam Morrison], I am sure [Charlotte] wins fewer games."

How can you be sure of this?

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By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10941 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:09:38 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10941 A no brainer really, giving more minutes to worse players is going to be more detrimental.

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By: Mike G http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970&cpage=1#comment-10940 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 23:42:00 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2970#comment-10940 I find this to be a logical contradiction:

"Morrison may have been more talented than his backups on Charlotte that year, but ... That behavior was detrimental to winning basketball"

If they don't have better players to take his minutes, then giving more minutes to worse players is more detrimental. They won 30 games; lots of teams have done worse, and it seems you're saying this team should have done worse. But why would they choose to?

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