Comments on: Who Ruled the Top Defenses in 2010? (Part I) http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Hyman Doonan http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-53896 Thu, 10 Nov 2011 23:47:23 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-53896 Greetings. This post was brilliantly helpful, and kind of gave me a kick in the pants. Thanks.

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-22671 Fri, 13 Aug 2010 16:24:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-22671 "What people who hate on Kobe needs to realize is that he has bailed out these Lakers on various accounts when they either didn't give him the ball in key moments by thinking they could get it done themselves. Or when they don't run the offense through him because they feel that he scoring all the points."

See efficiency/offensive % possession rate model...not that is hasn't been explained a billion times around here already.

"This is a man who hit seven game winning shots last year. Who is also very proven in the clutch when the game is on the line? Kobe has proven himself over and over again."

Game winning shots are among the most overrated events in sports. They're great, help your team win and get you on Sportscenter, but people who get caught up in them will obviously overlook players that perform well enough at the end of games where a game winning shot isn't even needed to win.

If basketball games were played over the span of 10 seconds, Kobe would easily be one of the best players in the game. But they play a full 48 minutes.

"What happened when Jerry West said LeBron is better than Kobe? Kobe put that noise to sleep real fast by hoisting his fourth ring."

Only in the minds of (most)Lakers fans of course. Objectively LeBron is STILL the best player in the game, and Kobe isn't even the best player at his position.

"What happened when Kobe was quote on quote not as good as Kevin Durant? He quieted that noise in games 5 and 6 when shut down Russell Westbrook! Swept Utah! Beat Phoenix in six! And Won the Finals after beating Boston in seven! No matter how much you hate on Kobe he is proving people wrong time and time again."

Geez, because he sure did all those things by himself didn't he? It helps to play alongside a player in the middle who outperforms you in the Finals in WS/48 mins and is your virtual equal in SPM. Gasol was the best player for the Lakers in the playoffs.

Also, I love how people claimed he "shut down Russell Westbrook" when he simply did something that Fisher didn't do -- play off of him, rely on team defense to defend drives and force him to make the outside jumper. Kobe is a better defender than Fisher, but he didn't exactly do anything revolutionary here.

"Once Kobe gets his sixth ring he will be the greatest Laker of all time."

Ugh, more flawed "rank players by team accomplishments" logic. Skipping this one...

"That fine but Shaq wasn't in top shape for the one he lost against Detroit. And if he would have stayed (315lbs) the years they won as oppose to a whopping (360lbs) when they missed it one year and were eliminated by San Antonio in the second round another then we wouldn't even be having this discussion because Kobe would be at seven right now as we speak."

So wait, how did Shaq come into the conversation now? I thought Kobe won all those titles for LA by himself and was "DA MAN"...? You know, the guy that uses his awesome SUBJECTIVE skilllllllllz to MAKE teams win????

So by that ridiculous argument, how is it not his fault when his team's DOESN'T win?

"SO let’s be real people I'm one of the biggest MJ fans out there and I could tell you that Kobe is right there!"

Oh, but I'm an objective basketball fan. And Kobe is NOT right there. Or even in his zip code.

That was fun.

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By: Abed Fede http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-22097 Thu, 05 Aug 2010 19:35:30 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-22097 Kobe is often critique by his volume shooting or average field goal percentage as some of these haters would imply over and over again. But what is overlooked is Kobe's ability to get the job done when his play is most scrutinized or questioned by these same haters. Kobe always finds a way to shut haters up for their bickering of him not equating to Jordan or whatever the case maybe. What people who hate on Kobe needs to realize is that he has bailed out these Lakers on various accounts when they either didn't give him the ball in key moments by thinking they could get it done themselves. Or when they don't run the offense through him because they feel that he scoring all the points. This is where all this Kobe isn't playing within the team system comes from. And when he has a bad game which is common people are so quick to say he is done or past his prime. When he put that noise to sleep when his knee was drained. This is a man who hit seven game winning shots last year. Who is also very proven in the clutch when the game is on the line? Kobe has proven himself over and over again. To me those who hate on him are just speaking banter! Like Kobe said to Magic and Kenny Smith when asked about these haters, "they are stupid to doubt my abilities, I just what they say as motivation." What happened when Jerry West said LeBron is better than Kobe? Kobe put that noise to sleep real fast by hoisting his fourth ring. What happened when Kobe was quote on quote not as good as Kevin Durant? He quieted that noise in games 5 and 6 when shut down Russell Westbrook! Swept Utah! Beat Phoenix in six! And Won the Finals after beating Boston in seven! No matter how much you hate on Kobe he is proving people wrong time and time again. So my suggestion is for the haters to hating this is the only way Kobe will not have an edge. Why do I say that? Because when Kobe is dissed by the haters he uses it as fuel to the fire just to see people run and hide when proves them wrong. I personally knew he was going to pass Shaq on titles. Obviously these guys have tension from one another. But what a lot of people fail to realize or don't know about Kobe is that he has the ultimate respect for Jordan. He doesn't want to pass up Jordan like he wanted to do so with Shaq. He wants to be better than Jordan when it’s all said in done because of his competitive drive which rivals M.J. You've heard it from Tim Grover (both MJ and Kobe's trainer) that it is a tie between them and their work ethic. Keep in mind Tim Grover has trained D. Wade and LeBron ad hasn't said those same things about them in relation to MJ. Once Kobe gets his sixth ring he will be the greatest Laker of all time. Because he will have 6 rings 3 finals mvps to Magic and Kareem's 5 rings and 3 finals mvps respectively. Then he will be in the conversation with MJ. Once he wins seven rings he will eclipse Michael Jordan at that point. That will have put Kobe in 7 wins out nine tries versus Magic's 5 out of nine tries. Kobe would have beaten three worthy opponents (Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat), to Michael's two (LA Lakers, Utah Jazz). Kobe would been in the finals nine times in seventeen years with seven wins versus Michael's six finals appearance in fourteen years with six wins. Michael will have the massive edge on not losing ever in the Finals. But Kobe will have an edge to that boasts he's been there more than Michael and won it more. Some may argue well it took him nine times to get seven but MJ got six out of six. That fine but Shaq wasn't in top shape for the one he lost against Detroit. And if he would have stayed (315lbs) the years they won as oppose to a whopping (360lbs) when they missed it one year and were eliminated by San Antonio in the second round another then we wouldn't even be having this discussion because Kobe would be at seven right now as we speak. Kobe has dominated two eras (2000-2010), (2010- ). Jordan has dominated one (1990-2000). SO let’s be real people I'm one of the biggest MJ fans out there and I could tell you that Kobe is right there!

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By: Ralph Chantry http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21951 Tue, 03 Aug 2010 00:59:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21951 Look at Roy's numbers and the fall off against lower defenses. He is saved and lower players carry the load then. Roy is called upon to carry the team against the better defense.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21690 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 21:23:18 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21690 Any one player is going to have a large amount of noise in their APM, but over the course of a bigger sample -- say thousands of players -- the errors are going to be reduced and we can achieve a general, unbiased sense of what the impact of each box score metric is on team performance. It's never going to be perfect, and there are always going to be cases where the prediction breaks down, but that's the part of efficiency we admittedly can't explain. Either way, explaining 3/4 statistically and missing on the other 1/4 is better than trying to explain the 1/4 via subjective means and missing on the other 3/4 as a result.

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By: Gil Meriken http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21689 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 21:01:25 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21689 89.

"Gil, I'll repeat what I was saying in another thread: we can explain more than 3/4 of offensive impact (plus/minus) from the box score alone."

Neil, I think I am not understanding how it is you believe you can separate each individuals' impact, even with (especially with) the noise in plus/minus, and the reality that combinations of players may be better than others, so that the whole of any combination may be more or less than the sum of its parts.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21683 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 19:07:18 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21683 Gil, I'll repeat what I was saying in another thread: we can explain more than 3/4 of offensive impact (plus/minus) from the box score alone. Almost everything that matters offensively is being tracked right now. The problem is, was, and always has been with defense, because almost nothing is tracked. Even with a team adjustment, we can explain less than half of defensive impact. So if you're complaining about the premises, you need to focus the majority of your criticism on the fact that we can't really differentiate performances on defense with a great deal of certainty, not offense (and remember, this post deals with offense only).

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By: Gil Meriken http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21681 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:51:52 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21681 87.

Consistency won't help if we can't agree on the beginning premises.

If I begin a mathematical proof with 2=1, even if my math from them on is flawless and consistent and logical, I can get to some crazy places.

In this case, the beginning premise is that something like "if player A scores 21 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists and player B scores 18 points, 4 rebounds and 10 assists, I can make a correct comparison of Player A's impact versus player B's impact with no further information". You can refine it to be PER or Win Share, I haven't found a model that incorporates the elements of individual impact. I would start believing it if the modeller told me his model was incorporated some kind of geo-positioning and differentiated contested rebounds from uncontested rebounds, assists for dunks from assists for threes, and assist for mid-range. It doesn't have to be unbelievably complicated, just based on more sophisticated inputs that it uses as its bottom units, since that is how the individual impacts the game. A "point" is just a result that a team generates, not an individual, which is why I stress that I'm all for the team stats.

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21677 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:09:43 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21677 That's exactly what I'm saying Gil.

I just love it how people want to slap the "subjective" label on any analysis using stats such as this site, then turn around and scream at people for not putting Kobe (or any player of your choosing) on top of a best player list, all while using their own, um, subjective criteria to justify the argument.

No one has to agree with any particular opinion here, but would using some consistency hurt?

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By: Gil Meriken http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063&cpage=2#comment-21671 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:54:41 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7063#comment-21671 85.

Talking to myself: Using statistical analysis on basketball with the current stats out there is objective, but only in the sense that it is methodical and consistent given the model.

But if the model and its interpretation are flawed, being objective and consistent does not mean it is right.

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