Comments on: Which Teams Are Allocating Their Possessions Efficiently?

By: Jesse

Jesse — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 17:30:40 +0000

I'm surprised that the Heat and Bucks are that high, but for different reasons. I figured Heat would be calculated as underutilizing the Big 3, i.e. their skill curves can handle more, since they had done so in the past (skill curve has less steep slope on average). I'm also surprised that the Bucks are as high as they are, given that my "watching games" i.e. non-aggregated impression of Jennings is that he's using way too many possessions w/ his inefficient shot.

By: Anon

Anon — Sat, 08 Jan 2011 20:04:39 +0000

"It's not clear whether a player like Tyson Chandler (or even Chris Paul) could actually increase his usage at the theoretical tradeoff rate." Maybe, maybe not; but I think I'd rather see him take a couple more shots per game than Caron Butler, who hasn't exactly been lighting it up this season. Anytime you can give those shots to your big man who has been near flawless from the field this season (its not all just tips and put-backs either, and he's even hitting his free throws now too!), you help your team offensively. He doesn't have to be prime Shaq in the post, but running some more plays for him can't hurt. As for CP3 (who has been playing out of his mind), I think he SHOULD be increasing his usage. That Hornets team outside of him and David West is buns offensively. It looks like a down-south version of LeBron and the Cavs from past seasons. Paul needs to get outta there.

By: NickS

NickS — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:13:06 +0000

I realize that this is a casual study, but might it make sense to remove Offensive Rebounding from Ortg for these purposes?

It seems like if a team decides to put the ball in a given player's hands more often that player will get get more FGs, Asts, and TOs, but won't necessarily get more offensive rebounds.

So when the system spits out the result that people like

Tyson Chandler
Kevin Love
DeAndre Jordan

Should all increase their usage by 30-50% that might go away if their current Ortg wasn't boosted by their offensive rebounding.

By: Coach R

Coach R — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 03:39:20 +0000

Some teams do a good job, however it does not always reflect in wins/losses unfortunately..:( Top point guards are not always given credit when then they hold a good ratio, but when the teams fail.. well its inevitable.

By: P Middy

P Middy — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 02:02:42 +0000

Excellent post. Kind of sad that so many bad teams top the list. talent > efficiency.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:53:55 +0000

Nice post, Neil. I agree with your 4th caveat though. It's probable that the usage break down is pretty much an organic optimization in itself wherein players who are able to get more shots take more and those who aren't don't. Where the change would probably need to take place from a coaching standpoint is more in either overall system or in minute allocation. Very interesting to see.

By: Sean

Sean — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 00:30:16 +0000

This is great stuff, but unless I'm missing something, it's still just an estimate (albeit a very fine-tuned one). Wouldn't we be able to analyze a basketball system much more accurately and applicably if stats such as touches per possession and time of possession (for each player) were recorded?

By: kkopi27

kkopi27 — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 23:20:37 +0000

Very cool stuff. And, lo and behold, there is a small negative correlation between diff^2 and that particular lineup's +/- of -.096.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 21:28:27 +0000

Exceptional work!