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2010 NBA Draft: Player Comparisons (Lottery Picks)

Posted by Neil Paine on June 25, 2010

I love the way the web's best draft sites provide comparable NBA players for draftees, because -- while totally unscientific -- it provides a decent framework upon which to build your view of (and expectations for) each rookie. Today, I'm going to look at the comparisons from Basketball Prospectus' Kevin Pelton, HoopsHype, DraftExpress, and NBADraft.net for each lottery pick, and show the best seasons (by Win Shares) for each comp to get a feel for what they may turn into, including potential strengths and weaknesses.

Glossary (mouse over column headers for descriptions)

1. John Wall, Wizards
Age: 19
Comps: Derrick Rose, Kyle Lowry, Russell Westbrook

Player Ag tOR %P tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Lowry 23 113.3 20.5 108.9 -0.09 13.3 53.6 16.2 27.7 17.5 5.29 56.0 29.3 6.1 11.2 0.4 1.9 1.56 69 18 9 4
Rose 21 106.5 27.3 109.1 -2.45 20.2 53.2 27.9 30.3 14.3 3.33 24.6 4.4 2.6 8.7 0.7 1.0 1.61 60 30 6 5
Westbrook 21 104.8 27.6 106.0 -0.79 16.9 49.1 24.6 38.6 17.8 5.92 36.4 9.0 6.0 10.3 0.9 2.0 1.99 69 21 6 5

2. Evan Turner, 76ers
Age: 21
Comps: Brandon Roy, Anthony Parker

Player Ag tOR %P tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Roy 24 122.0 27.0 108.6 -1.32 23.2 57.3 27.7 25.4 10.7 3.95 38.3 16.7 4.4 11.6 0.6 1.7 1.56 55 31 10 4
Parker 31 118.7 15.1 109.0 -0.29 13.2 59.7 17.0 9.9 10.0 1.27 23.0 38.0 2.9 10.9 0.3 1.6 0.73 50 38 8 4

3. Derrick Favors, Nets
Age: 18
Comps: Chris Bosh, Antonio McDyess, Chris Wilcox, Al Horford

Player Ag tOR %P tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Bosh 23 116.6 27.2 105.6 0.90 22.7 58.8 25.0 12.1 12.3 -1.61 54.4 2.4 8.4 20.1 2.2 1.4 1.14 37 38 19 6
McDyess 23 114.1 21.6 100.4 2.88 17.8 57.1 22.6 7.5 14.1 -2.92 35.5 0.2 10.1 19.0 4.0 2.2 0.81 31 47 15 7
Wilcox 24 113.1 18.9 110.1 0.34 15.4 56.8 19.0 5.3 13.6 -2.80 42.9 0.7 8.2 21.1 1.1 1.4 0.67 28 47 17 7
Horford 23 121.4 18.1 104.7 1.82 14.9 59.4 17.4 10.4 12.6 0.14 31.9 0.1 9.6 23.3 2.4 1.1 0.83 48 37 10 5

4. Wesley Johnson, T-Wolves
Age: 22
Comps: Shawn Marion, Travis Outlaw, Eddie Johnson, J.R. Giddens

Player Ag tOR %P tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Marion 27 119.6 21.3 101.0 2.91 18.4 59.1 23.3 6.8 9.0 -0.91 21.8 21.2 8.7 23.6 2.9 2.5 0.77 32 51 12 5
Outlaw 24 110.1 20.3 107.7 -0.27 17.5 54.1 23.1 6.3 11.4 -1.72 28.5 27.8 3.8 14.6 2.0 1.2 0.78 30 52 13 6
Johnson 23 113.3 21.0 110.3 -1.67 19.2 53.7 24.7 10.4 13.2 -1.26 23.1 5.2 7.0 11.4 0.4 1.1 1.02 41 44 9 6
Giddens* 24 98.1 18.1 110.9 -1.06 11.4 51.3 16.1 7.7 20.2 -3.81 28.2 20.5 9.6 15.7 0.5 1.8 0.70 41 39 10 10

* - Partial season w/ Knicks
5. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
Age: 19
Comps: Al Jefferson, Michael Beasley Erick Dampier, Derrick Coleman, Eddy Curry, Benoit Benjamin

Player Ag tOR %P tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Jefferson 23 109.2 26.9 108.0 0.37 21.4 53.5 28.6 7.5 11.1 -3.05 27.3 0.3 11.9 24.7 3.2 1.3 0.90 26 55 13 6
Beasley 21 101.2 24.6 102.5 0.70 18.5 50.5 27.3 7.8 12.3 -2.76 23.1 9.8 6.3 18.8 1.7 1.8 0.88 30 53 10 7
Dampier 28 119.5 18.6 104.5 2.49 13.7 57.3 16.5 4.3 15.6 -3.79 51.1 0.3 16.1 25.5 4.1 0.7 0.60 25 45 21 9
Coleman 26 112.1 25.2 103.0 1.83 20.1 53.4 24.3 15.6 14.9 -1.20 46.9 10.0 9.8 23.5 3.2 1.2 1.22 45 36 13 6
Curry 24 106.3 25.0 111.5 -1.41 20.2 60.3 22.4 4.6 21.9 -8.76 64.9 0.1 8.2 15.5 1.1 0.6 0.79 18 46 23 13
Benjam. 25 105.7 18.6 102.9 3.66 14.8 57.8 17.2 10.1 21.1 -3.50 46.7 0.1 7.8 24.4 4.8 1.2 0.88 45 33 12 9

6. Ekpe Udoh, Warriors
Age: 23
Comps: Jason Thompson, Hilton Armstrong, Jerome Moiso, Chris Gatling, Loren Woods

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Thompson 23 105.8 20.0 109.0 0.80 14.1 51.8 19.2 8.3 15.1 -2.39 35.3 1.3 10.8 20.3 2.3 0.9 0.79 39 42 12 7
Armstrong 24 100.9 16.8 106.1 0.96 11.6 58.5 14.0 4.4 23.9 -5.56 39.8 0.8 9.0 12.6 3.5 1.3 0.56 29 42 15 14
Moiso 24 103.1 16.9 100.8 2.70 11.7 54.2 15.8 5.8 22.7 -4.87 24.0 0.0 10.5 21.7 4.9 1.6 0.61 34 45 10 12
Gatling* 28 117.2 24.0 100.1 1.00 23.4 62.5 28.6 6.6 13.6 -4.19 29.0 0.0 10.8 25.0 1.5 1.6 0.83 22 56 15 8
Woods 25 108.1 14.9 105.6 0.73 8.8 50.3 11.7 3.3 18.8 -3.82 57.3 0.0 14.8 16.1 3.0 1.2 0.47 26 42 22 11

* - Partial season w/ Miami
7. Greg Monroe, Pistons
Age: 20
Comps: Brad Miller, J.J. Hickson, Josh McRoberts, Lamar Odom

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Miller 27 123.0 18.6 106.8 1.96 13.5 57.9 16.4 18.5 15.3 2.44 45.0 5.2 8.5 23.3 2.3 1.3 1.11 61 24 10 5
Hickson 21 108.8 18.3 103.9 0.40 14.9 58.0 19.1 3.9 15.6 -3.86 31.2 0.2 8.2 19.5 1.8 1.1 0.59 24 53 13 9
McRob. 22 113.9 16.0 105.0 1.31 11.7 55.0 16.1 13.5 11.2 1.97 26.0 15.8 8.3 18.2 2.2 1.6 0.83 57 32 7 4
Odom 28 116.6 17.3 103.8 2.22 13.0 58.2 15.8 13.8 15.5 0.89 41.3 14.2 7.8 22.7 1.8 1.3 0.93 57 28 9 6

8. Al-Farouq Aminu, Clippers
Age: 19
Comps: Josh Smith, Thaddeus Young, Marvin Williams, Luol Deng

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Smith 24 109.4 23.3 101.4 3.33 16.4 53.6 20.3 19.0 15.8 1.04 42.2 0.7 9.0 19.8 4.6 2.4 1.28 57 28 10 6
Young 20 109.1 19.4 108.2 -0.87 16.3 54.9 22.5 5.8 12.6 -2.35 19.7 17.1 6.4 11.2 0.7 2.1 0.69 29 55 9 7
Williams 22 116.3 17.7 107.3 0.52 14.9 56.9 18.2 6.3 10.1 -0.76 43.9 24.9 6.2 15.2 1.4 1.5 0.68 34 45 16 5
Deng 21 113.4 21.2 100.9 0.96 17.7 56.0 23.5 11.8 12.0 -0.55 29.5 0.6 5.5 15.9 1.2 1.6 0.93 41 42 11 5

9. Gordon Hayward, Jazz
Age: 20
Comps: Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Luke Jackson, Marcus E. Williams

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Miller 25 112.7 20.8 103.2 0.40 16.9 59.5 21.7 16.5 16.5 -0.29 27.6 44.6 2.3 18.8 1.0 1.3 1.05 52 34 8 6
Dunleavy 27 114.6 21.1 108.8 -0.51 18.0 60.5 21.4 16.1 15.0 0.07 36.1 34.8 2.1 13.7 0.8 1.4 1.08 51 33 10 6
Jackson* 25 107.3 16.6 108.5 -1.11 13.2 57.8 17.3 11.9 15.4 0.00 25.7 37.1 1.9 6.8 0.6 2.1 0.83 52 34 8 6
Williams* 21 75.2 25.6 106.6 -1.59 10.6 26.3 34.3 15.6 0.0 5.88 0.0 0.0 13.5 27.4 0.0 1.5 1.08 48 52 0 0

* - Partial-season data
10. Paul George, Pacers
Age: 20
Comps: Danny Granger, Joe Johnson, Wilson Chandler, Trevor Ariza

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Granger 25 112.9 27.8 108.1 -0.26 24.4 58.4 29.5 13.1 12.2 -1.77 36.0 35.2 2.2 13.4 3.0 1.4 1.15 37 44 14 6
Johnson 28 112.4 25.6 109.1 -1.87 20.8 53.8 28.0 22.0 10.5 3.50 19.4 25.3 3.0 11.4 0.1 1.5 1.40 55 35 6 4
Chandl. 21 101.9 19.9 109.8 0.15 14.8 51.5 21.5 9.9 12.7 -0.94 20.4 29.8 3.5 14.7 2.0 1.3 0.82 42 44 8 6
Ariza 23 111.7 16.7 101.5 1.78 12.8 54.4 16.9 10.4 13.3 0.48 28.4 32.0 6.4 13.5 0.9 3.5 0.82 51 35 9 5

11. Cole Aldrich, Thunder (via Hornets)
Age: 21
Comps: Emeka Okafor, Joel Przybilla, Josh Boone, Eric Montross

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Okafor 26 111.0 18.9 102.1 2.86 15.1 58.1 18.2 3.5 15.4 -4.04 47.8 0.0 12.7 25.2 4.2 1.0 0.60 20 50 21 9
Przybilla 29 123.6 11.2 101.7 4.48 8.7 65.2 8.4 2.0 19.7 -3.07 62.8 0.4 12.8 33.1 3.9 1.0 0.36 24 41 23 12
Boone 23 110.1 15.8 107.7 1.05 11.8 54.3 15.1 5.3 12.8 -1.77 50.0 0.0 12.5 20.8 2.7 1.1 0.57 32 43 18 7
Montross 23 110.1 15.0 109.9 0.87 12.0 56.5 14.4 2.3 16.5 -3.80 45.7 0.2 9.6 18.7 1.8 0.6 0.48 19 51 20 10

12. Xavier Henry, Grizzlies
Age: 19
Comps: James Posey, Martell Webster, Jim Jackson, Thaddeus Young

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Posey 27 124.6 17.9 105.4 1.11 16.3 61.4 18.8 8.4 13.4 -1.25 43.5 37.7 4.2 14.5 1.2 2.9 0.76 38 41 16 6
Webster 23 110.7 16.7 107.8 -0.14 14.6 54.3 19.6 5.0 9.8 -0.93 24.3 52.0 2.9 13.7 1.6 1.2 0.63 30 53 11 5
Jackson 33 106.0 16.9 104.4 0.72 12.2 54.0 18.6 12.8 18.2 -0.78 14.1 45.0 2.1 15.6 0.6 1.5 0.83 53 36 5 7
Young 20 109.1 19.4 108.2 -0.87 16.3 54.9 22.5 5.8 12.6 -2.35 19.7 17.1 6.4 11.2 0.7 2.1 0.69 29 55 9 7

13. Ed Davis, Raptors
Age: 21
Comps: Al Horford, Udonis Haslem, P.J. Brown, Alan Henderson, Cedric Simmons

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Horford 23 121.4 18.1 104.7 1.82 14.9 59.4 17.4 10.4 12.6 0.14 31.9 0.1 9.6 23.3 2.4 1.1 0.83 48 37 10 5
Haslem 24 119.9 15.4 103.6 1.51 11.7 58.8 15.0 6.3 14.5 -1.53 35.1 0.6 10.9 20.4 1.1 1.2 0.59 40 41 12 7
Brown 33 126.9 14.6 103.9 2.13 11.7 59.2 13.7 9.2 13.9 0.00 38.6 0.5 10.7 20.7 2.2 1.4 0.70 49 34 12 6
Henders. 25 113.8 23.4 108.5 -1.07 18.3 53.4 23.6 6.7 12.8 -3.07 51.5 0.8 12.1 13.8 1.3 1.1 0.83 27 47 20 7
Simmons 21 93.3 14.6 107.7 0.83 8.7 43.0 14.7 3.5 15.0 -2.62 25.0 0.0 9.3 13.9 3.4 0.8 0.48 28 52 12 9

14. Patrick Patterson, Rockets
Age: 21
Comps: Carl Landry, Kris Humphries, Buck Williams, D.J. White

Player Ag tOR %Ps tDR DPA P36 TS% %S AR TR PR Fr 3t O% D% B% S% Tp %P %S %F %T
Landry* 26 120.1 23.0 108.6 -0.31 21.0 62.1 22.4 5.0 13.5 -4.19 50.7 0.0 9.5 13.8 2.4 1.0 0.78 21 49 23 8
Humph.* 24 99.9 20.9 105.7 1.98 14.4 49.8 19.5 4.8 14.7 -4.01 49.8 0.3 10.0 26.7 3.0 1.7 0.69 24 48 19 9
Williams 22 115.6 18.5 99.5 2.91 16.8 61.1 17.0 5.9 20.7 -5.49 57.3 0.4 14.1 25.0 2.2 1.4 0.80 31 38 20 10
White 23 132.9 20.2 102.6 -0.03 20.7 65.0 24.0 7.4 7.5 -0.33 24.4 0.0 11.6 14.2 2.2 2.5 0.74 31 54 11 4

* - Partial-season data

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This entry was posted on Friday, June 25th, 2010 at 11:59 am and is filed under Analysis, NBA Draft, Offseason. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

3 Responses to “2010 NBA Draft: Player Comparisons (Lottery Picks)”

  1. Neil Paine Says:
    June 25th, 2010 at 12:08 pm

    Still not sure why the Warriors used the 6th pick on a guy who they can only hope turns into Chris Gatling someday... The Curse of #6 strikes again!

  2. DSMok1 Says:
    June 25th, 2010 at 1:04 pm

    Did you see Kevin Pelton's comps? Those would be interesting to look at as well.

  3. Neil Paine Says:
    June 25th, 2010 at 1:12 pm

    That's pretty good, I'm going to try to add those...

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