2010 Playoff Series Preview: Phoenix vs. Portland
Posted by Neil Paine on April 16, 2010
2010 Playoffs Home ▪ 2010 Playoff Previews
3. Phoenix Suns
Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)
Four Factors
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 0.546 | 1 | 0.136 | 17 | 0.276 | 7 | 0.240 | 10 |
| Phoenix Suns - Opp | 0.491 | 11 | 0.116 | 30 | 0.292 | 29 | 0.224 | 16 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats)
| Pos | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | G | MPG | ORtg | %Pos | DRtg | SPM | T/Min | %Pass | %Shoot | %Fouled | %TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C/PF | Amare Stoudemire | 27 | 82 | 245 | 82 | 34.6 | 117.5 | 26.1 | 108.9 | 1.24 | 0.86 | 19 | 51 | 21 | 9 |
| PG | Steve Nash | 35 | 75 | 195 | 81 | 32.8 | 120.8 | 26.1 | 113.8 | 1.19 | 2.46 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 4 |
| SG/SF | Jason Richardson | 29 | 78 | 220 | 79 | 31.5 | 116.1 | 19.4 | 110.6 | 2.06 | 0.82 | 40 | 48 | 7 | 4 |
| SF | Grant Hill | 37 | 80 | 225 | 81 | 30.0 | 114.2 | 16.6 | 109.9 | 0.42 | 0.87 | 53 | 33 | 10 | 5 |
| PF/C | Channing Frye | 26 | 83 | 248 | 81 | 27.0 | 119.6 | 15.7 | 107.9 | 4.10 | 0.69 | 43 | 46 | 7 | 5 |
| SF | Jared Dudley | 24 | 79 | 225 | 82 | 24.3 | 123.6 | 13.7 | 110.7 | 2.99 | 0.66 | 50 | 36 | 9 | 5 |
| PG | Goran Dragic | 23 | 76 | 180 | 80 | 18.0 | 109.7 | 21.9 | 111.6 | 0.71 | 1.46 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 6 |
| PF | Louis Amundson | 27 | 81 | 225 | 79 | 14.8 | 113.1 | 15.4 | 106.6 | -0.09 | 0.52 | 29 | 45 | 17 | 9 |
| SG/PG | Leandro Barbosa | 27 | 75 | 176 | 44 | 17.9 | 105.3 | 23.3 | 112.2 | -1.25 | 1.05 | 44 | 43 | 7 | 5 |
| C/PF | Jarron Collins | 31 | 83 | 255 | 34 | 7.6 | 93.4 | 10.0 | 111.6 | -5.29 | 0.36 | 36 | 32 | 22 | 10 |
| F | Earl Clark | 22 | 82 | 225 | 51 | 7.5 | 88.7 | 21.1 | 111.0 | -7.81 | 0.83 | 38 | 46 | 9 | 7 |
| F | Taylor Griffin | 23 | 79 | 238 | 8 | 4.0 | 87.0 | 16.1 | 113.3 | -7.38 | 0.62 | 29 | 49 | 17 | 5 |
| PF/C | Dwayne Jones | 26 | 83 | 250 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 108.3 | -7.58 | 0.00 |
Best Pure Shooter: Steve Nash
Best 3 Pt. Shooters: Channing Frye, Jared Dudley
Best Scorer: Amare Stoudemire
Best Rebounder: Louis Amundson
Best Passer: Steve Nash
Best Defender: Louis Amundson
Who to Foul: Louis Amundson (54.5%)
6. Portland Trail Blazers
Coach: Nate McMillan
SRS: 3.18 (11th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 87.7 (30th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.8 (7th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 107.1 (15th of 30)
Four Factors
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 0.499 | 14 | 0.121 | 2 | 0.282 | 4 | 0.249 | 5 |
| Portland Trail Blazers - Opp | 0.502 | 17 | 0.133 | 15 | 0.252 | 7 | 0.219 | 14 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats)
| Pos | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | G | MPG | ORtg | %Pos | DRtg | SPM | T/Min | %Pass | %Shoot | %Fouled | %TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PF/C | LaMarcus Aldridge | 24 | 83 | 240 | 78 | 37.5 | 113.2 | 22.1 | 106.7 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 38 | 47 | 11 | 4 |
| PG | Andre Miller | 33 | 74 | 200 | 82 | 30.5 | 111.3 | 24.8 | 108.3 | 1.82 | 1.71 | 65 | 22 | 8 | 4 |
| SG | Rudy Fernandez | 24 | 78 | 185 | 62 | 23.2 | 108.4 | 17.5 | 106.8 | 2.02 | 0.98 | 56 | 32 | 6 | 5 |
| SF | Nicolas Batum | 21 | 80 | 200 | 37 | 24.8 | 127.2 | 15.5 | 106.6 | 3.52 | 0.69 | 43 | 45 | 7 | 5 |
| C/PF | Marcus Camby | 35 | 83 | 220 | 23 | 31.2 | 111.7 | 14.3 | 100.7 | 5.22 | 0.79 | 61 | 28 | 6 | 5 |
| SF/SG | Martell Webster | 23 | 79 | 210 | 82 | 24.5 | 110.7 | 16.7 | 107.8 | -0.50 | 0.63 | 30 | 53 | 11 | 5 |
| PF/C | Juwan Howard | 36 | 81 | 240 | 73 | 22.4 | 106.7 | 14.2 | 108.2 | -3.98 | 0.56 | 41 | 43 | 7 | 8 |
| PG | Jerryd Bayless | 21 | 75 | 200 | 74 | 17.6 | 107.7 | 24.8 | 110.0 | -1.16 | 1.46 | 56 | 27 | 12 | 5 |
| F | Jeff Pendergraph | 22 | 81 | 240 | 39 | 10.4 | 130.0 | 10.0 | 104.5 | -3.30 | 0.26 | 6 | 65 | 17 | 12 |
| PG | Travis Diener | 27 | 73 | 175 | 5 | 5.2 | 84.6 | 11.3 | 105.1 | 3.20 | 1.19 | 78 | 16 | 6 | 0 |
| F | Dante Cunningham | 22 | 80 | 230 | 63 | 11.2 | 111.9 | 16.3 | 104.2 | -1.78 | 0.53 | 23 | 61 | 12 | 4 |
| G | Patrick Mills | 21 | 72 | 185 | 10 | 3.8 | 94.5 | 37.2 | 114.1 | -6.61 | 1.77 | 46 | 38 | 10 | 6 |
Best Pure Shooter: Rudy Fernandez
Best 3 Pt. Shooters: Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster
Best Scorer: LaMarcus Aldridge
Best Rebounder: Marcus Camby
Best Passer: Andre Miller
Best Defender: Marcus Camby
Who to Foul: Marcus Camby (63.9%)
Season Series
| Picks | Most Likely | Second Opinion |
|---|---|---|
| SPM "True Skill" Projection says: | Suns in 7 | Blazers in 6 |
| I say: | Suns in 5 | Suns in 6 |
April 16th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
Channing Frye's SPM is 3 points higher than Steve Nash's??
April 16th, 2010 at 5:39 pm
SPM really hates Nash's defense. It sees his lack of steals and blocks as indicative of a very negative defensive influence. It also sees assists as trivial, essentially meaningless in predicting how much impact a player has on the game. In Frye's favor are better rebounding, steals, and blocks, a better eFG%, more 3PA per minute (it loves players who space the floor), and more fouls (it sees fouls as indicative of defensive effort). This is not necessarily accurate (see Nash's actual +/- vs. Frye's), but you can explain why it comes out with that result.
April 16th, 2010 at 10:12 pm
"It sees his lack of steals and blocks as indicative of a very negative defensive influence."
That's surprising to hear, because I recall Stockton being pretty far up the all-time SPM list. He's not much of a scorer or rebounder.