BBR Rankings: 2010-01-15
Posted by Neil Paine on January 15, 2010
Rising: Hawks (W-BOS, L-@ORL, W-@BOS, W-WAS), Jazz (L-@MEM, W-@DAL, W-MIA, W-CLE)
Falling: Clippers (W-MIA, L-@MEM, L-@NOH), Raptors (W-@PHI, L-BOS, L-@IND)
(Want to know how the BBR Rankings are calculated? Read this first... "MLE" = Maximum Likelihood Estimate.)
| Rank | Prev | Team | W | L | WPct | SOSRk | Week | MLE | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 30 | 11 | 0.732 | 26 | 2-2 | 1.22469 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | 30 | 9 | 0.769 | 22 | 2-2 | 1.30872 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | Dallas Mavericks | 25 | 13 | 0.658 | 6 | 1-2 | 0.91559 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | Boston Celtics | 27 | 11 | 0.711 | 30 | 2-3 | 0.94013 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | Orlando Magic | 26 | 13 | 0.667 | 28 | 2-2 | 0.75176 | 6 |
| 6 | 8 | Atlanta Hawks | 25 | 13 | 0.658 | 23 | 3-1 | 0.83383 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | Phoenix Suns | 24 | 15 | 0.615 | 14 | 1-2 | 0.69316 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | Houston Rockets | 22 | 17 | 0.564 | 2 | 2-1 | 0.62228 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | Denver Nuggets | 25 | 14 | 0.641 | 29 | 3-1 | 0.56317 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 24 | 13 | 0.649 | 27 | 3-1 | 0.55470 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | Portland Trail Blazers | 24 | 16 | 0.600 | 19 | 2-1 | 0.47483 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | Utah Jazz | 22 | 17 | 0.564 | 8 | 3-1 | 0.37608 | 12 |
| 13 | 11 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 21 | 17 | 0.553 | 10 | 2-1 | 0.32799 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | New Orleans Hornets | 20 | 17 | 0.541 | 21 | 3-1 | 0.25287 | 14 |
| 15 | 17 | Miami Heat | 19 | 18 | 0.514 | 1 | 2-2 | 0.14842 | 16 |
| 16 | 16 | Memphis Grizzlies | 19 | 18 | 0.514 | 15 | 2-1 | 0.16662 | 15 |
| 17 | 15 | Toronto Raptors | 19 | 20 | 0.487 | 9 | 1-2 | 0.10748 | 17 |
| 18 | 20 | Charlotte Bobcats | 17 | 19 | 0.472 | 16 | 2-0 | -0.16433 | 19 |
| 19 | 19 | Chicago Bulls | 17 | 20 | 0.459 | 5 | 3-1 | -0.18610 | 20 |
| 20 | 18 | Los Angeles Clippers | 17 | 20 | 0.459 | 18 | 1-2 | -0.16030 | 18 |
| 21 | 21 | Milwaukee Bucks | 15 | 21 | 0.417 | 20 | 1-3 | -0.43562 | 22 |
| 22 | 23 | New York Knicks | 16 | 22 | 0.421 | 25 | 1-2 | -0.46429 | 23 |
| 23 | 22 | Sacramento Kings | 15 | 22 | 0.405 | 12 | 1-2 | -0.41142 | 21 |
| 24 | 24 | Detroit Pistons | 12 | 25 | 0.324 | 4 | 1-2 | -0.70066 | 24 |
| 25 | 26 | Golden State Warriors | 11 | 26 | 0.297 | 11 | 1-2 | -0.84652 | 25 |
| 26 | 25 | Washington Wizards | 12 | 25 | 0.324 | 17 | 1-3 | -0.85964 | 27 |
| 27 | 27 | Philadelphia 76ers | 12 | 26 | 0.316 | 13 | 2-2 | -0.90250 | 28 |
| 28 | 28 | Indiana Pacers | 13 | 25 | 0.342 | 24 | 2-2 | -0.85244 | 26 |
| 29 | 29 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 8 | 32 | 0.200 | 7 | 1-3 | -1.55610 | 29 |
| 30 | 30 | New Jersey Nets | 3 | 35 | 0.079 | 3 | 0-3 | -2.72241 | 30 |
| HCA | 0.59482 |
January 16th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
It is interesting that both methods have the Cavs and Lakers as the top two but they don't agree on which team is #1.
I think the reason the Lakers are #1 in the MLE ranking is that the MLE is using purely W-L, where as the BBR is using margin of victory. The Lakers have been super clutch in close games (6-0 in games decided by 3 pts or less) while the Cavs have not (only 2-5). The BBR method will give only a slight advantage to the Lakers for this difference as the scoring margin is only a few points difference where as MLE gives a huge advantage for the Lakers as they win the close games.
Is there any studies out there on whether a teams ability to win a close game has any predictive value or is the result of a close game more of a coin flip type of situation.