2010 APBRmetric All-Stars
Posted by Neil Paine on January 21, 2010
Tonight's the night we'll finally know this year's All-Star starters -- and if the balloting updates are any indication, we'll be seeing monsieurs Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson occupying 2 of the coveted slots after a great deal of, um, questionable fan support. Even Ray Allen, himself going through a down year by conventional numbers, spoke out about how messed up it is for the fans to vote in players who have no business being All-Stars. On the other hand, I have no doubt that this situation will be magically rectified by the league before tonight's announcement. I mean, you don't really think they'd let McGrady start, do you? How embarrassing would that be?
Whatever happens, everybody's weighing in with their opinions on the real All-Star teams (you know, the players who are having the best seasons in 2009-10, not the players with the biggest fan bases in China), so I thought I'd throw out what the rosters would be if we were going strictly by the numbers...
(Note: Players had to play a minimum of 597 minutes to qualify for rate stats.)
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guards | Guards | |||||
Dwyane Wade* | MIA | 5.70 | Brandon Roy* | POR | 6.39 | |
Rajon Rondo* | BOS | 5.43 | Chris Paul* | NOH | 6.32 | |
Mo Williams | CLE | 4.43 | Kobe Bryant | LAL | 6.24 | |
Joe Johnson | ATL | 4.34 | Steve Nash | PHO | 5.83 | |
Forwards | Forwards | |||||
LeBron James* | CLE | 10.43 | Kevin Durant* | OKC | 7.29 | |
Chris Bosh* | TOR | 6.71 | Tim Duncan* | SAS | 6.33 | |
Gerald Wallace | CHA | 6.48 | Dirk Nowitzki | DAL | 6.28 | |
David Lee | NYK | 5.53 | Carmelo Anthony | DEN | 5.35 | |
Paul Pierce | BOS | 5.01 | Zach Randolph | MEM | 5.34 | |
Josh Smith | ATL | 4.85 | Centers | |||
Centers | Nene* | DEN | 5.63 | |||
Dwight Howard* | ORL | 6.19 | Marc Gasol | MEM | 5.17 | |
Al Horford | ATL | 5.71 | Andrew Bynum | LAL | 5.14 |
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guards | Guards | |||||
Dwyane Wade* | MIA | 24.72 | Chris Paul* | NOH | 16.66 | |
Raymond Felton* | CHA | 13.70 | Steve Nash* | PHO | 14.66 | |
Charlie Bell | MIL | 9.91 | Kobe Bryant | LAL | 12.92 | |
Vince Carter | ORL | 6.77 | Andre Miller | POR | 11.50 | |
Forwards | Marcus Thornton | NOH | 11.34 | |||
LeBron James* | CLE | 25.08 | Forwards | |||
Luol Deng* | CHI | 16.82 | Chris Andersen* | DEN | 23.26 | |
Anderson Varejao | CLE | 14.87 | Dirk Nowitzki* | DAL | 16.63 | |
Gerald Wallace | CHA | 13.43 | Kevin Durant | OKC | 15.12 | |
Danny Granger | IND | 12.96 | Ryan Gomes | MIN | 13.64 | |
Centers | Centers | |||||
Ben Wallace* | DET | 13.12 | Nene* | DEN | 20.46 | |
Brendan Haywood | WAS | 12.50 | Marc Gasol | MEM | 15.23 | |
Dwight Howard | ORL | 11.92 | Chris Kaman | LAC | 11.10 |
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guards | Guards | |||||
Dwyane Wade* | MIA | 9.11 | Chris Paul* | NOH | 9.23 | |
Rajon Rondo* | BOS | 5.08 | Manu Ginobili* | SAS | 7.49 | |
Gilbert Arenas-x | WAS | 4.03 | Kobe Bryant | LAL | 6.53 | |
Stephen Jackson | CHA | 2.45 | Brandon Roy | POR | 5.89 | |
Vince Carter | ORL | 2.31 | Jason Kidd | DAL | 5.60 | |
Forwards | Chauncey Billups | DEN | 5.28 | |||
LeBron James* | CLE | 13.15 | Forwards | |||
Josh Smith* | ATL | 6.41 | Tim Duncan* | SAS | 7.44 | |
Gerald Wallace | CHA | 5.16 | Kevin Love* | MIN | 6.33 | |
Chris Bosh | TOR | 5.04 | Kevin Durant | OKC | 5.87 | |
Danny Granger | IND | 4.39 | Carmelo Anthony | DEN | 5.34 | |
Paul Pierce | BOS | 4.38 | Centers | |||
Centers | Marcus Camby* | LAC | 5.93 | |||
Dwight Howard* | ORL | 6.20 | Nene | DEN | 4.60 | |
Rasheed Wallace | BOS | 4.10 |
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guards | Guards | |||||
Dwyane Wade* | MIA | 26.70 | Chris Paul* | NOH | 25.89 | |
Rajon Rondo* | BOS | 19.83 | Steve Nash* | PHO | 23.88 | |
Joe Johnson | ATL | 19.14 | Kobe Bryant | LAL | 23.38 | |
Gilbert Arenas-x | WAS | 18.92 | Brandon Roy | POR | 22.64 | |
Luke Ridnour | MIL | 18.30 | Forwards | |||
Forwards | Tim Duncan* | SAS | 27.33 | |||
LeBron James* | CLE | 31.18 | Carmelo Anthony* | DEN | 24.60 | |
Chris Bosh* | TOR | 26.58 | Kevin Durant | OKC | 24.45 | |
Josh Smith | ATL | 21.67 | Dirk Nowitzki | DAL | 23.29 | |
David Lee | NYK | 21.37 | Kevin Love | MIN | 23.16 | |
Kevin Garnett | BOS | 20.31 | Pau Gasol | LAL | 22.92 | |
Centers | Centers | |||||
Dwight Howard* | ORL | 22.83 | Zach Randolph* | MEM | 22.40 | |
Brook Lopez | NJN | 21.65 | Amare Stoudemire | PHO | 20.46 | |
Al Horford | ATL | 19.86 |
To summarize, the consensus of the numbers is that the following players need to be considered All-Stars (mentioned on at least 3 of the 4 teams above):
Chris Bosh, Toronto; Dwight Howard, Orlando; Dwyane Wade, Miami; Gerald Wallace, Charlotte; Josh Smith, Atlanta; LeBron James, Cleveland; Rajon Rondo, Boston; Brandon Roy, Portland; Carmelo Anthony, Denver; Chris Paul, New Orleans; Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas; Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City; Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers; Nene, Denver; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Tim Duncan, San Antonio.
That's 16 of the 24 available slots, and the remaining 8 should probably (mentioned on at least 2 teams) be filled by some combination of:
Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; David Lee, New York; Joe Johnson, Atlanta; Paul Pierce, Boston; Vince Carter, Orlando; Kevin Love, Minnesota; Marc Gasol, Memphis; Zach Randolph, Memphis.
We'll soon see how well the actual teams reflect the All-APBRmetric teams at the midway point of the 2010 season.
January 21st, 2010 at 3:06 pm
So from these results the starters would be (roughly):
East
G - Wade
G - Rondo
F - James
F - Bosh
C - Howard
(reasonable)
West
G - Paul
G - Nash
F - Duncan
F - Anthony / Nowitski / Durant (tough to separate)
C - M. Gasol
(not as reasonable)
I think Kobe's got to be there. Lakers are playing too well. Duncan should be in at C to open up an F spot for Melo, Dirk, and KD to fight over.
January 21st, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Yeah, Duncan's being listed as a forward really screwed things up, and it's totally ludicrous. The only three big men getting significant minutes for the Spurs are 6'10" Matt Bonner, 6'9" Antonio McDyess, and 6'6" Dejuan Blair. How is Duncan not their center? Were Duncan listed at center, Amare could come of the bench like he ought to be, and Dirk and Melo could both start. It's the less publicized All-Star Game screwup, but a screwup nonetheless.
It's nice to see Kevin Love get some recognition. Wolves fans are just hoping he won't be snubbed and kept out of the Rookie/Sophomore game again this year.
January 21st, 2010 at 4:41 pm
Actually, Nene would be the center for the West over M. Gasol. And you could easily have Kobe start over Nash, since he was one of the only players that all 4 systems considered an All-Star. So you'd have:
G - Paul
G - Bryant
F - Durant (mentioned 4 times)
F - Duncan
C - Nene
January 21st, 2010 at 4:51 pm
And what about Deron Williams???
He deserve to be an all star for me.
January 21st, 2010 at 8:21 pm
1. LeBron James is miles ahead of everybody, even Chris Paul. Amazing. If he continues this stretch of play for another three years, he'll have just about matched MJ's statistical peak - with a playoff run last year that was beyond anything ever seen.
2. I don't really mind the All-Star game being a popularity contest. The game is never played with playoff intensity, so there's no reason to watch the game other than having fans' favorite players in the game. If we want the game to grow, we're going to have to live with people in China wanting to watch their favorite players. I'm far more upset over the end of the year awards being treated like a popularity contest than an exhibition game in the middle of the season getting filled with unworthy players.
January 21st, 2010 at 11:38 pm
Wow, you called it. McGrady was bumped by Steve Nash!
Regarding Duncan, he is announced as a PF even though he plays up. I went to a game SA @ MIL where they announced Dejuan Blair as the starting C; of course, Duncan did the jump ball and defended Andrew Bogut. I'm just saying, whoever fills out the roster wants Tim Duncan to have "PF" next to his name.
January 22nd, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Neil - Good call. I didn't even see Nene's name because it's not linked. My eye just jumped right over it.
January 22nd, 2010 at 2:44 pm
I think it happened because I didn't say "Nene Hilario", so the linkify tool didn't know to put the link in. I'll get that fixed.
January 24th, 2010 at 5:08 am
Should a WS ranking be adjusted for the number of games a team has played?
If the Suns have played 44 G, and the Warriors 41, then equivalent players would have 7% more WS with Phx.
February 5th, 2010 at 10:41 pm
If you fix the outdated positioning of the NBA, and go with something I (and Hollinger) suggested, 1 PG, 2 Wings, and 2 Bigs (and 1 PG, 2 Wings, 2 Bigs, and 2 extra for subs), what would you get?
West Starters:
WS: Paul, Roy, Durant, Nowitski, Duncan
A+/-: Paul, Bryant, Durant, Andersen, Nene
S+/-: Paul, Ginobili, Bryant, Love, Duncan
PER: Paul, Anthony, Durant, Nowitski, Duncan
Consensus(?): Paul, Bryant, Durant, Nowitski, Duncan (would anyone argue with this?)
East Starters:
WS: Rondo, Wallace, James, Bosh, Howard
A+/-: Felton, Wade, James, Varejao, B. Wallace
S+/-: Rondo, Wade, James, Josh Smith, Howard
PER: Rondo, Wade, James, Bosh, Howard
Consensus: Rondo, Wade, James, Bosh, Howard
Those seem good to me.