Another Measure of Player Importance
Posted by Neil Paine on December 16, 2008
Last week, I talked at some length about how vital Dwyane Wade was to the Miami Heat's offense this season. We quantified his importance using a number of different metrics -- % of team shots taken while on the floor, touches per minute, etc. -- before finally settling on his possession %, the rate of team possessions he uses (through scoring, passing, rebounding, and turning the ball over) while he's on the court. And as it turned out, Wade's possession % was on pace to be the best ever (and it still is; in fact, he's raised it to 37.2% now).
Those aren't the only ways to quantify a player's necessity to his team, though. Here's an old-school metric that can give us another look at who's been indispensable to his team's offense: the % of team buckets he played a direct role in. In other words, take a player's FG, add his assists, and divide by team FG. It's a simple but fairly effective way to see which players are playing a huge role in their team's offensive gameplan, which is nice if you're perusing the boxscores in the morning and you have neither the time nor the inclination to calculate some of the more arcane metrics we used in the original D-Wade post. Anyway, here are the 2008-09 leaders so far (through Saturday's games):
Player Tm G FG AST tmFG %TmFG ---------------+-----+-----+--------+-------+-------+-------- Chris Paul NOH 19 131 229 672 53.6% Dwyane Wade MIA 22 226 160 809 47.7% LeBron James CLE 24 223 154 910 41.4% BaRon Davis LAC 22 150 177 839 39.0% Joe Johnson ATL 23 194 121 809 38.9% Derrick Rose CHI 23 172 145 849 37.3% Brandon Roy POR 25 197 129 910 35.8% Vince Carter NJN 22 172 105 791 35.0% Jose Calderon TOR 20 85 183 781 34.3% Raymond Felton CHA 24 120 144 787 33.5% Caron Butler WAS 21 166 91 777 33.1% Kobe Bryant LAL 22 196 93 882 32.8% Devin Harris NJN 19 137 117 791 32.1% Andre Miller PHI 24 133 144 866 32.0% Steve Nash PHO 21 112 177 911 31.7% ---------------+-----+-----+--------+-------+-------+--------
Wade may be consuming possessions at a record pace, but CP3 is breaking some records of his own this season. That 53.6% mark would actually be the highest in NBA history, surpassing Tiny Archibald's record 53.5% rate in 1972-73 (the year Archibald famously led the league in scoring and assists). Here are the rest of the all-time single-season leaders:
Player Year Tm FG Ast tmFG %tmFG ---------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+------- Tiny Archibald 1973 KCO 1028 910 3621 53.5% John Stockton 1991 UTA 496 1164 3214 51.6% John Stockton 1989 UTA 497 1118 3182 50.8% Chris Paul 2008 NOH 630 925 3164 49.1% Oscar Robertson 1964 CIN 840 868 3516 48.6% John Stockton 1990 UTA 472 1134 3330 48.2% LeBron James 2006 CLE 875 521 2908 48.0% Oscar Robertson 1965 CIN 807 861 3482 47.9% Gary Payton 1999 SEA 401 436 1756 47.7% Gary Payton 2000 SEA 747 732 3108 47.6% Jason Kidd 1999 PHO 310 539 1797 47.2% W. Chamberlain 1964 SFW 1204 403 3407 47.2% Gary Payton 2002 SEA 737 737 3131 47.1% Michael Jordan 1989 CHI 966 650 3448 46.9% John Stockton 1992 UTA 453 1126 3379 46.7% ---------------+-----+------+--------+-------+-------+-------
It's also worth noting that Wade's 47.7% mark would also rank among the best of all-time, so we're really getting a chance to witness two players have historic seasons in this regard so far in '08-09. And remember, they're not just ball-hogs, either -- both have Offensive Ratings that are well above average (Paul's is actually the league's 3rd-highest among regulars, despite the heavy workload). So it's definitely been a privilege to be able to watch these guys operate at such a high level this year... Let's hope they keep it up!
December 16th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
If I'm not mistaken, Paul's assist ratio this season is the highest of all time. I don't think anyone would claim that he's a ballhog. I've talked to some fans, and they actually think he's not shooting enough. This bears out in the statistics (lower usage and 3 fewer shot attempts). His percentages are sky high this year, and he's not really taking shots away from someone more efficient (the only one who beats him in TS% is Posey), so I think there may be some merit to what they are saying. I don't know if his current shooting numbers are sustainable, but his level of efficiency right now is still so good that he could probably afford to take a slight hit in order to increase his volume.
Given this post, it's not surprising that the New Orleans offense kind of goes off the rails when Paul isn't on the court. He is years away from his prime, and he is still one of the best decision makers I have ever seen.
December 16th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Highest possession % is certainly not necessarily "best" or even good. Is %teamFG? How many on the all-time leader list won titles that year?Isn't it zero?
December 16th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Where were Wade's and Bryant's %teamFG the years they won titles compared to years they didn't?
How many times in post Jordan era did the champ have the top or even a top 5 guy?
Did this dominant involvement make Stockton and Payton teams a little to predictable and a bit easier to guard than otherwise despite all the benefits they brought?
No Celtics on this seasson's list. Or Spur on it or the all-time list. Is a more distributed attack the modern way to go? Why does Phil Jackson have Kobe at 12th place?
December 16th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Looks like Wade's %teamFG was 40.4% his championship year, 15% less than now. Is that the highest post title winning Jordan? Kobe's last title season was at 38.4%. What was Jordan's highest when winning the title?
December 16th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
I haven't checked them all but looks like 92-93 Jordan was at 42.9% %teamFG and that probably is his highest when winning the title. That along with the susbstantial record of Stockton and Payton and the rest of the non title winning that year all-time leaders should give some pause regarding the message of this stat for Paul and Wade this season.
December 16th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
"I haven’t checked them all but looks like 92-93 Jordan was at 42.9% %teamFG and that probably is his highest when winning the title."
Makes sense when you consider that he had to average 41.0 ppg in the Finals in order to get his team past Phoenix. Didn't Wade have to average 34.7 to get by Dallas in '06?
A high %teamFG could indicate the "value" and to some extent the ability of a particular player, but it seems to me that TOO high a %teamFG usually means that one person is carrying too much of the load. Such a team may still perform very well, but they probably won't be able to be the best teams, i.e. the teams that spread the burden around better. MJ was an anomaly in that he was efficient enough to carry more of the load and still manage to carry his team to *ultimate* success on a consistent basis. (for the people who get annoyed by how highly he's regarded, that's why - and he's a shooting guard...you EXPECT a big man to be dominant enough to lead a team, but a championship team led by a shooting guard is rare, and MJ did it six times) We saw what happened when Lebron tried to do it for the Cavs in '07...they got swept by San Antonio.
The %teamFG for Chris Paul is exactly why I doubt the Hornets will be able to beat the Lakers or the Celtics in a seven game series. He makes those guys better than they are, but individually, David West and the other guys aren't on the level of Kareem, Byron Scott, James Worthy... I make that comparison because Magic Johnson led the Lakers in the mid to late eighties, but he had players who were excellent in their own right, and therefore could shoulder more of the responsibility when necessary. Without Paul, the Hornets are not good enough. If the Hornets want to get the finals and maybe win, Paul will have to play for virtually the entire game. It could be done, but the margin for error will be less than it'll be for the Lakers and Celtics.
That's why Boston won last season and why they're probably still the best team. They can spread it around quite well. Paul Pierce is not Lebron/CP3/Wade night in and night out, but he doesn't have to be. That's the strength of the team and that's why Miami can't win squat without Wade having a huge game. Obviously Chris Paul has a better team than Miami, but it shouldn't have to be said that it's a matter of degrees when you're comparing bad teams, average teams, very good teams, and title contending teams.