’09 Playoff Preview: East #5 – Miami Heat
Posted by Neil Paine on April 16, 2009
Coach: Erik Spoelstra
Record: 43-39
Last NBA Title: 2006
5-Year Playoff Record: Won 7 Series, Lost 3, 1 Final, 1 Title
Championship Odds: 0.0%
Key Question: How far can Wade single-handedly carry this team?
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | LgAvg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | 107.8 | 20 | 107.6 | 11 | 108.3 |
| Pace | 89.9 | 22 | -- | -- | 91.7 |
| eFG% | 50.0 | 16 | 50.1 | 16 | 50.0 |
| TO% | 13.7 | 3 | 16.7 | 4 | 15.2 |
| ORb% | 24.6 | 24 | 27.1 | 19 | 26.7 |
| FTA/FGA | 28.2 | 24 | 32.5 | 22 | 30.6 |
| 3P% | 35.7 | 22 | 38.9 | 28 | 36.7 |
| 2P% | 48.9 | 12 | 47.6 | 9 | 48.5 |
| FT% | 75.4 | 23 | 77.1 | 18 | 77.1 |
| 3PA/FGA | 24.5 | 8 | 23.7 | 21 | 22.4 |
| Ast/FG | 55.1 | 22 | 56.4 | 15 | 56.5 |
| Blk% | 6.7 | 5 | 9.2 | 2 | 7.6 |
| Stl% | 7.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 5 | 7.9 |
Regular Season: After a miserable 2008 that saw Dwyane Wade miss half the season and the team win a league-worst 15 games, the Heat bounced back nicely in '09 under 1st-year head coach Erik Spoelstra. Wade played the most games of his career and was as dominant as ever, rookie Mario Chalmers was a pleasant surprise, top draftee Michael Beasley improved as the season progressed, and a midseason trade for Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon seems to have at least partially resuscitated the big man's career and given Miami a Shawn Marion replacement in the process.
Prime-Time Players: 1. Dwyane Wade. If it weren't for LeBron James and (perhaps) Chris Paul, Wade would hands-down be the best basketball player on Earth right now. He dispelled any notion that his aggressive style burned him out by having a monster Olympics and following that up with a great NBA campaign in 2009. And remember the shows he usually puts on during the playoffs? He's capable of single-handedly winning at least 1 series for Miami.
2. Mario Chalmers. "Superintendent" Chalmers has been surprisingly good for a rookie, even after considering his turnover issues. He can knock down shots and does a good job of picking his spots on offense, plus we know he can make game-changing plays if called upon.
3. Udonis Haslem. One of the few remaining veterans of Miami's '06 title run, Haslem doesn't put up gaudy numbers but he's a hard-working role player that every team needs at least 1 of to make a difference in the playoffs.
But don't count on... Jermaine O'Neal. JO has made Miami a stronger team inside, especially on defense, but he has a long history of invisibility in the "second season". Even with the change of scenery, I don't think Miami fans should expect any different from O'Neal this time around.
Why they can win: Wade is amazing, and has repeatedly shown the ability to lift mediocre teammates to heights they'd have no business going otherwise. Plus, the Heat are a pretty solid defensive team.
Why they can't win: They're a one-man show on offense, and while that one man is awesome, he can't go it alone. There's also the question of experience: while Wade, Haslem, & O'Neal are old hands, they'll be using a whole lot of fresh faces as well.
X-Factor: Avoiding the beasts of the East. By securing the 5 seed, Miami drew Atlanta in round 1 rather than one of the elite 1-3 seeds. And as luck would have it, Atlanta's just about the only upper-half Eastern Conference team they have any shot at upsetting.
| Heat vs. | Off. | Def. | Reb. | Coach | Exp. | The Skinny | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | Push | Push | Atlanta isn't upset-proof | Hawks in 5 | |||
| Boston | Can Wade carry them past injured C's? | Celtics in 6 | |||||
| Chicago | X | X | Thank goodness for home-court advantage, huh? | Heat in 7 | |||
| Cleveland | Not much Miami can do against deeper, better Cavs squad | Cavs in 5 | |||||
| Detroit | X | X | X | Remember when this series was a marquee matchup? | Heat in 6 | ||
| Orlando | Heat barely offered resistance in season series | Magic in 5 | |||||
| Philadelphia | Push | Push | Push | X | Miami wins… but by the slimmest of margins | Heat in 7 |
(Key: "X" = Advantage; blank = disadvantage)