2010 Western Conference Finals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Phoenix
Posted by Neil Paine on May 12, 2010
2010 Playoffs Home ▪ 2010 Playoff Previews
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Coach: Phil Jackson
SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Utah Jazz
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus OKC Thunder
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 0.496 | 15 | 0.124 | 5 | 0.276 | 7 | 0.221 | 18 |
| Los Angeles Lakers - Opp | 0.484 | 6 | 0.132 | 18 | 0.256 | 9 | 0.195 | 2 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 31 | 78 | SG | 109.1 | 31.4 | 104.4 | -0.73 | 25.0 | 48.7 | 32.9 | 81.1 | 23.8 | 13.5 | 0.36 | 34.5 | 19.2 | 3.1 | 12.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 |
| Pau Gasol | 29 | 84 | PF | 120.3 | 22.2 | 101.8 | 2.24 | 17.8 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 15.0 | 13.9 | 0.10 | 42.9 | 0.6 | 11.4 | 22.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Ron Artest | 30 | 78 | SF | 106.0 | 16.4 | 105.0 | 0.63 | 11.7 | 45.3 | 35.5 | 68.8 | 13.3 | 14.6 | 1.34 | 25.1 | 40.0 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Derek Fisher | 35 | 73 | PG | 105.4 | 13.9 | 105.9 | 0.55 | 9.9 | 40.1 | 34.8 | 85.6 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 2.51 | 23.7 | 40.1 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Andrew Bynum | 22 | 84 | C | 117.0 | 20.6 | 102.0 | 2.01 | 17.8 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 73.9 | 5.8 | 14.6 | -3.52 | 37.9 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Lamar Odom | 30 | 82 | PF | 109.0 | 17.9 | 100.4 | 2.90 | 12.3 | 51.0 | 31.9 | 69.3 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 1.08 | 27.3 | 24.6 | 8.0 | 26.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Shannon Brown | 24 | 76 | SG | 105.3 | 17.8 | 105.1 | -0.12 | 14.1 | 47.4 | 32.8 | 81.8 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 0.29 | 20.4 | 31.9 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Jordan Farmar | 23 | 74 | PG | 105.3 | 18.2 | 105.9 | -0.99 | 14.4 | 48.3 | 37.6 | 67.1 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 0.86 | 16.5 | 44.5 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Luke Walton | 29 | 80 | SF | 96.0 | 17.1 | 105.4 | -1.07 | 9.1 | 34.3 | 41.2 | 50.0 | 21.5 | 13.4 | 5.39 | 4.8 | 20.2 | 5.0 | 10.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Josh Powell | 27 | 81 | PF | 88.7 | 18.8 | 106.3 | -1.13 | 10.5 | 36.0 | 43.8 | 64.5 | 9.0 | 15.6 | -1.66 | 16.0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 13.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Adam Morrison | 25 | 80 | SF | 91.6 | 18.0 | 108.0 | -2.36 | 11.0 | 42.2 | 23.8 | 62.5 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 0.83 | 9.4 | 24.7 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| D.J. Mbenga | 29 | 84 | C | 98.6 | 16.1 | 101.3 | 2.71 | 10.6 | 46.6 | 0.0 | 47.4 | 3.4 | 13.6 | -2.72 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 17.2 | 6.2 | 0.7 |
3. Phoenix Suns
Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus San Antonio Spurs
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 0.546 | 1 | 0.136 | 17 | 0.276 | 7 | 0.240 | 10 |
| Phoenix Suns - Opp | 0.491 | 11 | 0.116 | 30 | 0.292 | 29 | 0.224 | 16 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stoudemire | 27 | 82 | C | 117.5 | 26.1 | 108.9 | -0.09 | 23.4 | 55.9 | 16.7 | 77.1 | 4.8 | 14.5 | -5.58 | 50.0 | 0.5 | 9.7 | 18.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Steve Nash | 35 | 75 | PG | 120.8 | 26.1 | 113.8 | -3.05 | 17.5 | 54.0 | 42.6 | 93.8 | 50.9 | 21.4 | 11.27 | 22.8 | 29.5 | 1.5 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| J. Richardson | 29 | 78 | SG | 116.1 | 19.4 | 110.6 | -0.89 | 17.5 | 52.8 | 39.3 | 73.9 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 0.13 | 18.4 | 40.1 | 3.9 | 13.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Grant Hill | 37 | 80 | SF | 114.2 | 16.6 | 109.9 | 0.18 | 13.1 | 48.3 | 43.8 | 81.7 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 0.85 | 35.7 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 16.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Channing Frye | 26 | 83 | PF | 119.6 | 15.7 | 107.9 | 1.46 | 14.5 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 81.0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 0.11 | 17.2 | 55.8 | 3.6 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Jared Dudley | 24 | 79 | SF | 123.6 | 13.7 | 110.7 | -0.36 | 11.9 | 46.1 | 45.8 | 75.4 | 7.9 | 12.6 | 0.44 | 28.2 | 53.5 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| L. Barbosa | 27 | 75 | SG | 105.3 | 23.3 | 112.2 | -2.51 | 18.6 | 48.5 | 32.4 | 87.7 | 12.5 | 12.7 | -0.42 | 20.0 | 37.3 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goran Dragic | 23 | 76 | PG | 109.7 | 21.9 | 111.6 | -1.97 | 15.4 | 48.8 | 39.4 | 73.6 | 24.1 | 20.1 | 2.40 | 32.4 | 38.3 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| L. Amundson | 27 | 81 | PF | 113.1 | 15.4 | 106.6 | 2.30 | 11.1 | 55.3 | 0.0 | 54.5 | 3.7 | 16.0 | -3.11 | 44.6 | 0.4 | 13.1 | 19.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 |
| Jarron Collins | 31 | 83 | C | 93.4 | 10.0 | 111.6 | 0.24 | 4.6 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 2.9 | 19.4 | -2.31 | 80.6 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 16.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Earl Clark | 22 | 82 | SF | 88.7 | 21.1 | 111.0 | -2.04 | 12.8 | 37.0 | 40.0 | 72.2 | 7.8 | 14.3 | -2.35 | 23.8 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Dwayne Jones | 26 | 83 | PF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 108.3 | 2.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Season Series
| Picks | Most Likely | Second Opinion |
|---|---|---|
| SPM "True Skill" Projection says: | Lakers in 5 | Lakers in 7 |
| SRS says: | Lakers in 7 | Suns in 6 |
| I say: | Lakers in 6 | Lakers in 5 |
May 12th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
I wanted the picks to be right in the Spurs-Suns series; I hope they're wrong this time, too.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
Where did you get that series schedule?
Everywhere only reports Monday 5/17 as Game 1 and Wed 5/19 as Game 2 with the rest TBD.
May 12th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
I got it here:
http://thelakersnation.com/blog/2010/05/09/western-conference-finals-schedule-released/
But I think the 17th date for Game 1 is correct, so I'll get that fixed.
May 14th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
As usual, here are my projections, based on the Statistical Plus/Minus and minutes played estimates for each team. I have updated the SPM through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.
LAL vs PHO
4 to 0 7.5%
4 to 1 18.8%
4 to 2 14.7%
4 to 3 20.8%
3 to 4 11.0%
2 to 4 15.8%
1 to 4 7.3%
0 to 4 4.1%
Margin
8.12 6.96
LAL PHO
61.7% 38.3%
The Lakers in 7 is the projection here.
May 14th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
EDIT: I didn't realize Lopez would play. I don't know whether that helps them or not; SPM doesn't like him as much as the alternatives. In terms of matchups, I'm sure it does help.
LAL vs PHO
4 to 0 8.0%
4 to 1 19.6%
4 to 2 15.1%
4 to 3 20.9%
3 to 4 10.6%
2 to 4 15.1%
1 to 4 6.8%
0 to 4 3.7%
Margin
8.12 6.66
LAL PHO
63.7% 36.3%