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Best At the Break

Posted by Neil Paine on February 16, 2010

Regular-season play resumes tonight after 5 days off for the All-Star break, so I thought it would be interesting to look at every NBA season and see how the team with the best record at the break fared the rest of the year:

Pre-Break Post-Break
Year Team W L WPct LgRk W L WPct Playoffs ConfChamp NBAChamp
1951 Minneapolis Lakers 39 21 0.650 1/11 5 3 0.625 1 0 0
1952 Syracuse Nationals 32 15 0.681 1/10 8 11 0.421 1 0 0
1953 Minneapolis Lakers 28 9 0.757 1/10 20 13 0.606 1 0 1
1954 New York Knickerbockers 28 12 0.700 1/9 16 16 0.500 0 0 0
1955 Fort Wayne Pistons 26 13 0.667 1/8 17 16 0.515 1 0 0
1956 Philadelphia Warriors 27 13 0.675 1/8 18 14 0.563 1 0 1
1957 Boston Celtics 23 14 0.622 1/8 21 14 0.600 1 0 1
1958 Boston Celtics 29 12 0.707 1/8 20 11 0.645 1 0 0
1959 St. Louis Hawks 31 12 0.721 1/8 18 11 0.621 1 0 0
1960 Boston Celtics 36 10 0.783 1/8 23 6 0.793 1 0 1
1961 Boston Celtics 32 13 0.711 1/8 25 9 0.735 1 0 1
1962 Boston Celtics 34 8 0.810 1/9 26 12 0.684 1 0 1
1963 Los Angeles Lakers 34 11 0.756 1/9 19 16 0.543 1 0 0
1964 Boston Celtics 28 9 0.757 1/9 31 12 0.721 1 0 1
1965 Boston Celtics 37 7 0.841 1/9 25 11 0.694 1 0 1
1966 Boston Celtics 27 11 0.711 1/9 27 15 0.643 1 0 1
1967 Philadelphia 76ers 39 4 0.907 1/10 29 9 0.763 1 0 1
1968 St. Louis Hawks 37 14 0.725 1/12 19 12 0.613 1 0 0
1969 Baltimore Bullets 33 11 0.750 1/14 24 14 0.632 1 0 0
1970 New York Knickerbockers 38 11 0.776 1/14 22 11 0.667 1 0 1
1971 Milwaukee Bucks 35 7 0.833 1/17 31 9 0.775 1 1 1
1972 Los Angeles Lakers 41 5 0.891 1/17 28 8 0.778 1 1 1
1973 Boston Celtics 39 7 0.848 1/17 29 7 0.806 1 0 0
1974 Boston Celtics 32 9 0.780 1/17 24 17 0.585 1 1 1
1975 Washington Bullets 29 12 0.707 1/18 31 10 0.756 1 1 0
1976 Golden State Warriors 35 13 0.729 1/18 24 10 0.706 1 0 0
1977 Los Angeles Lakers 35 19 0.648 1/22 18 10 0.643 1 0 0
1978 Portland Trail Blazers 40 8 0.833 1/22 18 16 0.529 1 0 0
1979 Washington Bullets 36 15 0.706 1/22 18 13 0.581 1 1 0
1980 Boston Celtics 40 13 0.755 1/22 21 8 0.724 1 0 0
1981 Philadelphia 76ers 44 10 0.815 1/23 18 10 0.643 1 0 0
1982 Boston Celtics 32 11 0.744 1/23 31 8 0.795 1 0 0
1983 Philadelphia 76ers 43 7 0.860 1/23 22 10 0.688 1 1 1
1984 Boston Celtics 34 9 0.791 1/23 28 11 0.718 1 1 1
1985 Boston Celtics 41 9 0.820 1/23 22 10 0.688 1 1 0
1986 Boston Celtics 38 8 0.826 1/23 29 7 0.806 1 1 1
1987 Los Angeles Lakers 35 12 0.745 1/23 30 5 0.857 1 1 1
1988 Los Angeles Lakers 35 8 0.814 1/23 27 12 0.692 1 1 1
1989 Cleveland Cavaliers 35 11 0.761 1/25 22 14 0.611 1 0 0
1990 Los Angeles Lakers 35 11 0.761 1/27 28 8 0.778 1 0 0
1991 Portland Trail Blazers 39 9 0.813 1/27 24 10 0.706 1 0 0
1992 Chicago Bulls 39 9 0.813 1/27 28 6 0.824 1 1 1
1993 Phoenix Suns 38 10 0.792 1/27 24 10 0.706 1 1 0
1994 Seattle Supersonics 35 10 0.778 1/27 28 9 0.757 1 0 0
1995 Phoenix Suns 38 10 0.792 1/27 21 13 0.618 1 0 0
1996 Chicago Bulls 42 5 0.894 1/29 30 5 0.857 1 1 1
1997 Chicago Bulls 42 6 0.875 1/29 27 7 0.794 1 1 1
1998 Seattle Supersonics 37 10 0.787 1/29 24 11 0.686 1 0 0
2000 Portland Trail Blazers 38 11 0.776 1/29 21 12 0.636 1 0 0
2001 Philadelphia 76ers 36 14 0.720 1/29 20 12 0.625 1 1 0
2002 Sacramento Kings 37 12 0.755 1/29 24 9 0.727 1 0 0
2003 Dallas Mavericks 38 10 0.792 1/29 22 12 0.647 1 0 0
2004 Sacramento Kings 37 13 0.740 1/29 18 14 0.563 1 0 0
2005 San Antonio Spurs 41 12 0.774 1/30 18 11 0.621 1 1 1
2006 Detroit Pistons 42 9 0.824 1/30 22 9 0.710 1 0 0
2007 Dallas Mavericks 44 9 0.830 1/30 23 6 0.793 1 0 0
2008 Boston Celtics 41 9 0.820 1/30 25 7 0.781 1 1 1
2009 Los Angeles Lakers 42 10 0.808 1/30 23 7 0.767 1 1 1
2010 Cleveland Cavaliers 43 11 0.796 1/30 ? ? ? ? ? ?

Here are the best records ever at the All-Star break:

Pre-Break Post-Break
Year Team W L WPct LgRk W L WPct Playoffs ConfChamp NBAChamp
1967 Philadelphia 76ers 39 4 0.907 1/10 29 9 0.763 1 0 1
1996 Chicago Bulls 42 5 0.894 1/29 30 5 0.857 1 1 1
1972 Los Angeles Lakers 41 5 0.891 1/17 28 8 0.778 1 1 1
1997 Chicago Bulls 42 6 0.875 1/29 27 7 0.794 1 1 1
1983 Philadelphia 76ers 43 7 0.860 1/23 22 10 0.688 1 1 1
1973 Boston Celtics 39 7 0.848 1/17 29 7 0.806 1 0 0
1965 Boston Celtics 37 7 0.841 1/9 25 11 0.694 1 0 1
1971 Milwaukee Bucks 35 7 0.833 1/17 31 9 0.775 1 1 1
1978 Portland Trail Blazers 40 8 0.833 1/22 18 16 0.529 1 0 0
2007 Dallas Mavericks 44 9 0.830 1/30 23 6 0.793 1 0 0
1986 Boston Celtics 38 8 0.826 1/23 29 7 0.806 1 1 1
2006 Detroit Pistons 42 9 0.824 1/30 22 9 0.710 1 0 0
1985 Boston Celtics 41 9 0.820 1/23 22 10 0.688 1 1 0
2008 Boston Celtics 41 9 0.820 1/30 25 7 0.781 1 1 1
1981 Philadelphia 76ers 44 10 0.815 1/23 18 10 0.643 1 0 0
1988 Los Angeles Lakers 35 8 0.814 1/23 27 12 0.692 1 1 1
1991 Portland Trail Blazers 39 9 0.813 1/27 24 10 0.706 1 0 0
1992 Chicago Bulls 39 9 0.813 1/27 28 6 0.824 1 1 1
1981 Boston Celtics 43 10 0.811 2/23 19 10 0.655 1 1 1
1962 Boston Celtics 34 8 0.810 1/9 26 12 0.684 1 0 1
2009 Los Angeles Lakers 42 10 0.808 1/30 23 7 0.767 1 1 1
2009 Boston Celtics 44 11 0.800 2/30 18 9 0.667 1 0 0
2010 Cleveland Cavaliers 43 11 0.796 1/30 ? ? ? ? ? ?
1985 Philadelphia 76ers 39 10 0.796 2/23 19 14 0.576 1 0 0
1993 Phoenix Suns 38 10 0.792 1/27 24 10 0.706 1 1 0
1995 Phoenix Suns 38 10 0.792 1/27 21 13 0.618 1 0 0
2003 Dallas Mavericks 38 10 0.792 1/29 22 12 0.647 1 0 0
1972 Milwaukee Bucks 38 10 0.792 2/17 25 9 0.735 1 0 0
1984 Boston Celtics 34 9 0.791 1/23 28 11 0.718 1 1 1
2006 Dallas Mavericks 41 11 0.788 2/30 19 11 0.633 1 1 0
1998 Seattle Supersonics 37 10 0.787 1/29 24 11 0.686 1 0 0
1995 Orlando Magic 37 10 0.787 2/27 20 15 0.571 1 1 0
2009 Cleveland Cavaliers 40 11 0.784 3/30 26 5 0.839 1 0 0
1960 Boston Celtics 36 10 0.783 1/8 23 6 0.793 1 0 1
1974 Boston Celtics 32 9 0.780 1/17 24 17 0.585 1 1 1
1994 Seattle Supersonics 35 10 0.778 1/27 28 9 0.757 1 0 0
1974 Milwaukee Bucks 35 10 0.778 2/17 24 13 0.649 1 1 0
1970 New York Knickerbockers 38 11 0.776 1/14 22 11 0.667 1 0 1
2000 Portland Trail Blazers 38 11 0.776 1/29 21 12 0.636 1 0 0
1983 Los Angeles Lakers 38 11 0.776 2/23 20 13 0.606 1 1 0
2005 San Antonio Spurs 41 12 0.774 1/30 18 11 0.621 1 1 1
1986 Los Angeles Lakers 37 11 0.771 2/23 25 9 0.735 1 0 0
2000 Los Angeles Lakers 37 11 0.771 2/29 30 4 0.882 1 1 1
2006 San Antonio Spurs 40 12 0.769 3/30 23 7 0.767 1 0 0
1973 Los Angeles Lakers 36 11 0.766 2/17 24 11 0.686 1 1 0
1973 New York Knickerbockers 39 12 0.765 3/17 18 13 0.581 1 1 1
1989 Cleveland Cavaliers 35 11 0.761 1/25 22 14 0.611 1 0 0
1990 Los Angeles Lakers 35 11 0.761 1/27 28 8 0.778 1 0 0
1991 Los Angeles Lakers 35 11 0.761 2/27 23 13 0.639 1 1 0
1983 Boston Celtics 38 12 0.760 3/23 18 14 0.563 1 0 0
2005 Phoenix Suns 41 13 0.759 2/30 21 7 0.750 1 0 0
2010 Los Angeles Lakers 41 13 0.759 2/30 ? ? ? ? ? ?
1953 Minneapolis Lakers 28 9 0.757 1/10 20 13 0.606 1 0 1
1964 Boston Celtics 28 9 0.757 1/9 31 12 0.721 1 0 1
1963 Los Angeles Lakers 34 11 0.756 1/9 19 16 0.543 1 0 0
1998 Los Angeles Lakers 34 11 0.756 2/29 27 10 0.730 1 0 0
2002 Sacramento Kings 37 12 0.755 1/29 24 9 0.727 1 0 0
1980 Boston Celtics 40 13 0.755 1/22 21 8 0.724 1 0 0
1969 Baltimore Bullets 33 11 0.750 1/14 24 14 0.632 1 0 0

All told, the team with the league's best record at the All-Star break has won 25 championships in 58 seasons, good for a rate of 43.1%, which bodes much better for Cleveland than our Playoff Odds Report, which simulated the rest of the season 1,000 times and found the Cavs winning it all "only" 28% of the time (still tops in the league, but significantly less than 43%).

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 16th, 2010 at 1:05 pm and is filed under All-Star Game, Data Dump, History. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

One Response to “Best At the Break”

  1. Matt Says:
    February 17th, 2010 at 12:30 am

    Interesting data. Looking at winning percentage suggests closer agreement with the PLayoff Odds Report. Ranking the teams by by winning percentage, there appears to be a pretty significant break point just above the Cavaliers. Teams above the Cavs won the champoinship 14 out of 22 times (64%). Below, the rate was 9 out of 35 (26%). If you look at the 10 times above and 10 below Cleveland, the rate is 7/20 (35%).

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