Predicting with Statistical Plus/Minus
Posted by Neil Paine on February 23, 2009
Surely most of our readers have heard about "adjusted plus/minus" at some time or another, whether through TrueHoop, Sports Illustrated, the APBRmetrics board, the many articles at 82games on the subject, or even Michael Lewis' article about Shane Battier in last week's New York Times Magazine. But for those of you who aren't familiar with the stat, it essentially tracks a player's influence on his team's point differential by comparing the team's performance when he's on the court vs. its performance with him sitting on the bench. There are also adjustments for a player's teammates, backups, opponents, and even the location of each game, and the whole mountain of data is fed through a massive linear regression equation to try and isolate the individual impact of every player. Personally, I believe this system has a lot of promise (especially with regard to measuring defense), and with further refinement it will one day be one of the better basketball metrics out there, so it was nice to see it get some more recognition this past week -- even though there are still some wrinkles that need to be ironed out.
Anyway, the other day I was fooling around with what's called "statistical plus/minus", which is basically a regression Dan Rosenbaum (the pioneer of adjusted +/-) once ran between "pure" plus/minus -- the kind you find at sites like BasketballValue.com -- and traditional box score numbers like points, blocks, assists, etc. The original goal of the regression was to try to add a more stable component to player ratings as a counterbalance to the pure +/-, which, while theoretically solid, can be wildly inconsistent for individual players from season to season. I ran the formula for every player over the past few years, but I forced 5 * the weighted average of a team's raw statistical +/- to equal that team's efficiency differential (offensive rating minus defensive rating). This is far from an ideal metric, but I found it does a reasonably credible job; for instance, here are this year's leaders in SPM (minimum 329 minutes):
Player Tm Pos G Min SPM ----------------+----+------+-------+---------+------- james,lebron cle SF 52 1955 15.90 paul,chris nor PG 48 1790 13.31 wade,dwyane mia SG 53 2018 11.63 ginobili,manu san SG 38 1038 7.91 duncan,tim san C 52 1839 7.45 roy,brandon por SG 49 1835 7.10 bryant,kobe lal SG 54 1968 6.74 kirilenko,andrei uta SF 40 1172 6.37 kidd,jason dal PG 53 1878 6.12 howard,dwight orl C 51 1852 5.92 nelson,jameer orl PG 42 1307 5.89 wallace,gerald cha SF 43 1612 5.74 granger,danny ind SF 52 1882 5.33 rondo,rajon bos PG 56 1854 5.32 boozer,carlos uta PF 12 406 5.01 carter,vince njn SG 54 1967 4.88 turiaf,ronny gsw C 53 1070 4.85 iguodala,andre phi SF 53 2045 4.79 harris,devin njn PG 49 1756 4.73 robinson,nate nyk PG 46 1369 4.70 lewis,rashard orl PF 53 1947 4.31 gasol,pau lal PF 53 1936 4.23 garnett,kevin bos PF 53 1706 4.07 pierce,paul bos SF 56 2080 3.87 millsap,paul uta PF 49 1573 3.86 ----------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------
Yeah, I know, there are some dudes in the top 25 that shouldn't be there, and the metric seems to have a general fondness for guys who have a good "versatility index" (PTS * AST * REB, raised to the 1/3 power)... but it's still okay. Not great, but it generally works good enough to get a broad idea of who's good and who isn't, which all we're going for here.
So I was messing around with this metric, and specifically looking at the huge leap Boston made between 2006-07 and 2007-08 (+42 wins, to be exact). Before the '08 season, we were kicking around Celtics predictions using a variety of methods, including PER and the ORtg/%Pos/DRtg framework that I used in this old article (which I promise I'll get back to... someday). And we all came up with ~50 wins for the "new-look" C's -- except for a member who used past "pure" adjusted +/- scores to predict the new roster's performance; he basically called for 65+ wins, which turned out to be dead on the money. Well, I wanted to see if you could accomplish the same thing with statistical +/-, so I projected 2008 SPM scores using data from 2005-07 and the old quick-and-dirty Bill James formula:
Proj_Y = (.5 * Y-1) + (.33 * Y-2) + (.17 * Y-3)
For the rookies, I eyeballed some past rooks and decided to give them an SPM of around -3.25. So we end up with this:
Player Pos G Min Proj ----------------+--+---+----+----- Paul Pierce F 80 2874 6.16 Ray Allen G 73 2624 4.88 Kevin Garnett F 71 2328 7.97 Rajon Rondo G 77 2306 1.61 Kendrick Perkins F 78 1912 -1.50 James Posey F 74 1821 1.49 Eddie House G 78 1480 -1.75 Tony Allen G 75 1373 0.82 Glen Davis F 69 940 -3.25 Leon Powe F 56 809 -5.04 Brian Scalabrine F 48 512 -2.51 Sam Cassell G 17 299 0.41 P.J. Brown F 18 209 -2.44 Scot Pollard C 22 173 -1.90 Gabe Pruitt G 15 95 -3.25 ----------------+--+---+----+----- Eff Diff: 10.56 Wins 67.49
Lo and behold, you could have actually gotten 67.5 projected wins for that bunch had you predicted using SPM during the summer of 2007 (they actually won 66). So maybe there is something to this.
To further test this method, I wanted to "retrodict" the 2008-09 season so far using SPM. This time, though, I used a more sophisticated projection method, like the one we use for our official BBR projections. I also went back and found that the minute-weighted average SPM for all rookies in the lottery era was -2.16, so I assigned that value for every rookie (clearly this understates the value of your O.J. Mayos and Derrick Roses, but I wanted to keep things relatively simple). I used each player's actual minutes from this season (through Thursday's games), and efficiency differentials were converted to a winning % using this formula:
WPct = 0.498962072294257 + (0.0316764124733866 * eDiff)
Here's a rundown of how the method would have predicted things so far (all data courtesy of Dougstats):
+------------------------Actual----------------------+-Projected-+---- Team G W L WPct ORtg DRtg eDiff PeDiff projW +/- --------------------+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----- AtlantaHawks 54 32 22 0.593 109.9 108.1 1.82 -2.64 22 10 BostonCeltics 56 44 12 0.786 111.1 101.2 9.96 9.51 45 -1 CharlotteBobcats 54 22 32 0.407 104.5 106.2 -1.78 -1.40 25 -3 ChicagoBulls 54 24 30 0.444 107.0 108.7 -1.70 -1.99 24 0 ClevelandCavaliers 52 41 11 0.788 113.4 102.2 11.22 8.12 39 2 DallasMavericks 53 32 21 0.604 109.9 108.4 1.52 6.63 38 -6 DenverNuggets 54 37 17 0.685 109.9 105.9 4.01 2.81 32 5 DetroitPistons 53 27 26 0.509 106.9 107.5 -0.67 4.10 33 -6 GSWarriors 55 19 36 0.345 109.5 113.2 -3.68 -2.10 24 -5 HoustonRockets 54 33 21 0.611 109.1 105.5 3.61 7.60 40 -7 IndianaPacers 56 22 34 0.393 107.7 110.0 -2.32 -1.27 26 -4 LAClippers 55 13 42 0.236 102.8 112.1 -9.21 -3.19 22 -9 LALakers 54 44 10 0.815 115.0 106.1 8.90 8.19 41 3 MemphisGrizzlies 54 15 39 0.278 103.5 110.4 -6.91 -6.61 16 -1 MiamiHeat 53 28 25 0.528 106.9 106.9 0.00 0.00 26 2 MilwaukeeBucks 57 27 30 0.474 108.2 108.0 0.21 -3.19 23 4 MinnesotaT-wolves 53 18 35 0.340 107.2 111.1 -3.92 -5.43 17 1 NJNets 55 24 31 0.436 108.8 111.6 -2.83 -2.16 24 0 NOrleansHornets 52 32 20 0.615 110.4 107.3 3.19 5.57 35 -3 NYKnicks 53 22 31 0.415 108.3 110.9 -2.58 -0.65 25 -3 OklahomaCityThunder 54 13 41 0.241 103.9 110.0 -6.14 -8.82 12 1 OrlandoMagic 53 39 14 0.736 110.6 102.6 7.94 3.54 32 7 Philadelphia76ers 53 27 26 0.509 106.5 105.7 0.83 1.77 29 -2 PhoenixSuns 53 30 23 0.566 111.9 109.7 2.22 6.23 37 -7 PortlandTrailBlazers 53 33 20 0.623 114.1 110.0 4.10 -3.48 21 12 SacramentoKings 55 11 44 0.200 105.1 115.4-10.30 -4.49 20 -9 SanAntonioSpurs 53 36 17 0.679 108.7 105.2 3.51 4.10 33 3 TorontoRaptors 56 21 35 0.375 106.8 110.2 -3.40 1.05 30 -9 UtahJazz 55 32 23 0.582 111.0 107.8 3.15 4.55 35 -3 WashingtonWizards 54 12 42 0.222 105.4 114.0 -8.61 -4.08 20 -8 --------------------+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+-----
That's an average error of 4.5 wins per team so far; for the sake of comparison, when projected out over 82 games, the average error vs. pythagorean record is a measly 6.4 wins, which would destroy anyone in our APBRmetrics prediction contest (in all fairness, though, this method is "cheating" considerably by knowing the actual minute totals for each player -- all it has to project is productivity, whereas before the season we all had to project both productivity and playing time). Anyway, for those interested in a closer examination, here's the data (I include each player's actual SPM scores as well as their projected SPMs):
Player Tm Pos G Min SPM pSPM ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- johnson,joe atl SG 52 2059 1.76 0.85 bibby,mike atl PG 53 1850 2.85 -0.14 williams,marvin atl SF 50 1748 0.32 -1.91 smith,josh atl PF 42 1476 1.80 3.68 horford,al atl C 40 1274 2.15 -1.03 evans,maurice atl SG 54 1206 -1.99 -1.07 murray,ronald atl PG 52 1172 -2.42 -3.37 pachulia,zaza atl C 50 1014 -1.20 -1.19 jones,solomon atl C 45 539 0.11 -1.80 law,acie atl PG 42 445 -5.58 -3.43 west,mario atl SG 31 84 2.78 0.09 morris,randolph atl C 16 64 -6.76 -1.80 hunter,othello atl SG 10 34 -10.63 -2.16 gardner,thomas atl SG 5 27 -25.58 -0.60 ATLANTA 1.82 -2.64 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- pierce,paul bos SF 56 2080 3.87 4.81 allen,ray bos SG 56 2021 3.02 3.08 rondo,rajon bos PG 56 1854 5.32 1.65 garnett,kevin bos PF 53 1706 4.07 6.42 perkins,k bos C 50 1436 -0.22 0.02 house,eddie bos PG 55 953 1.85 -0.75 davis,glen bos C 54 951 -2.36 -1.18 powe,leon bos PF 56 890 -0.36 -1.33 allen,tony bos SG 40 760 -0.34 -0.39 scalabrine,b bos PF 37 454 -1.56 -1.97 pruitt,gabe bos PG 33 286 -4.39 -0.49 o'bryant,p bos C 26 110 -4.52 -0.17 walker,bill bos SG 8 54 -2.13 -2.16 BOSTON 9.96 9.51 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- felton,raymond cha PG 54 2054 0.69 -1.10 okafor,emeka cha PF 54 1839 -0.71 -0.58 wallace,gerald cha SF 43 1612 5.74 4.53 augustin,d.j. cha PG 44 1248 -0.29 -2.16 diaw,boris cha PF 31 1179 0.71 0.17 bell,raja cha SG 23 807 0.00 0.64 morrison,adam cha SF 44 667 -5.69 -4.31 richardson,j cha SG 14 492 2.20 2.99 carroll,matt cha SG 34 481 -4.74 -1.23 dudley,jared cha SF 20 427 0.20 -0.13 howard,juwan cha PF 24 353 -3.16 -3.59 brown,shannon cha SG 30 340 -3.24 -2.36 mohammed,nazr cha C 35 310 -7.93 -1.67 may,sean cha PF 18 250 -11.18 0.32 diop,desagana cha C 13 224 1.65 1.01 hollins,ryan cha C 18 183 4.29 -0.75 singletary,sean cha PG 24 182 -6.13 -2.16 ajinca,alexis cha C 29 175 -6.60 -2.16 martin,cartier cha PF 8 107 1.71 -2.16 radmanovic,vlad cha PF 4 107 2.86 -0.58 jones,dwayne cha C 6 52 -15.97 -0.32 brown,andre cha PF 4 41 -14.84 -3.08 johnson,linton cha SG 2 13 -4.50 -1.08 CHARLOTTE -1.78 -1.40 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- rose,derrick chi PG 54 1989 -1.71 -2.16 gordon,ben chi SG 54 1944 0.15 0.57 deng,luol chi SF 43 1484 -0.66 0.83 thomas,tyrus chi PF 51 1307 1.22 0.38 nocioni,andres chi SF 53 1281 -1.88 -0.74 noah,joakim chi C 52 1115 3.66 1.15 gooden,drew chi PF 31 920 -2.81 -2.67 hughes,larry chi SG 30 792 0.21 -0.95 sefolosha,thabo chi SG 43 735 -0.44 -1.68 gray,aaron chi C 45 662 -0.83 -0.58 hinrich,kirk chi PG 23 611 1.34 1.77 hunter,lindsey chi PG 22 238 -4.72 -0.97 simmons,cedric chi PF 12 62 1.51 -2.34 nichols,d chi SF 2 6 -25.52 -0.77 CHICAGO -1.70 -1.99 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- james,lebron cle SF 52 1955 15.90 10.60 williams,mo cle PG 52 1794 0.93 0.10 varejao,a cle C 52 1441 0.48 -0.09 west,delonte cle SG 37 1236 3.41 0.35 wallace,ben cle C 49 1193 1.40 2.89 gibson,daniel cle PG 47 1169 -0.94 0.02 szczerbiak,w cle SF 49 1049 -1.42 -0.87 ilgauskas,z cle C 36 973 -0.51 0.69 pavlovic,sasha cle SG 46 731 -1.21 -2.89 hickson,j.j. cle PF 45 533 -6.40 -2.16 jackson,darnell cle PF 27 179 -11.08 -2.16 kinsey,tarence cle SF 31 145 -3.63 -1.62 wright,lorenzen cle C 15 87 -10.07 -2.16 williams,jawad cle PF 9 12 -14.53 -2.16 johnson,trey cle SG 2 11 -29.72 -2.16 CLEVELAND 11.22 8.12 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- nowitzki,dirk dal PF 52 1950 3.27 6.80 kidd,jason dal PG 53 1878 6.12 3.28 terry,jason dal PG 50 1683 2.78 2.28 dampier,erick dal C 53 1258 2.51 0.25 howard,josh dal SF 36 1182 -0.27 2.02 bass,brandon dal PF 52 1024 -4.39 -2.54 barea,juan_jose dal PG 50 935 -4.16 -1.85 wright,antoine dal SG 36 742 -2.17 -2.83 george,devean dal SF 33 576 -3.31 -2.36 diop,desagana dal C 34 451 -1.66 1.01 singleton,james dal PF 36 405 -3.81 -0.52 green,gerald dal SF 25 269 -7.26 -2.86 williams,shawne dal SF 15 169 -9.88 -1.31 stackhouse,j dal SG 8 142 -11.00 -1.69 carroll,matt dal SG 10 86 -10.70 -1.23 hollins,ryan dal C 9 76 -15.86 -0.75 DALLAS 1.52 6.63 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- hilario,nene den C 53 1730 3.70 0.21 billups,c den PG 49 1698 3.59 5.56 martin,kenyon den PF 48 1606 1.61 -0.57 smith,j.r. den SG 53 1441 0.23 0.41 carter,anthony den PG 54 1325 -1.57 -0.32 anthony,carmelo den SF 39 1323 2.13 2.93 kleiza,linas den SF 54 1255 -3.19 -1.82 jones,dahntay den SG 52 1022 -2.32 -3.17 andersen,chris den C 43 815 3.19 -0.45 balkman,renaldo den SF 33 421 1.52 1.18 iverson,allen den PG 3 122 -1.52 2.22 atkins,chucky den PG 16 118 -9.36 -0.50 petro,johan den C 11 64 -8.34 -4.05 weems,sonny den SG 7 35 -18.65 -2.16 howard,juwan den PF 3 23 4.21 -3.59 samb,cheick den C 6 23 -8.69 -0.11 DENVER 4.01 2.81 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- prince,tayshaun det SF 53 1975 0.46 0.45 iverson,allen det PG 48 1841 0.37 2.22 wallace,rasheed det C 49 1641 1.13 3.20 stuckey,rodney det PG 51 1584 0.47 -0.27 hamilton,rip det SG 45 1493 -0.36 0.96 mcdyess,antonio det PF 34 898 0.00 -0.14 afflalo,arron det SG 51 803 -3.13 -1.22 maxiell,jason det PF 49 785 -0.97 -0.61 johnson,amir det PF 44 742 1.53 2.54 brown,kwame det C 32 473 -2.99 -1.73 bynum,will det PG 29 246 -6.23 -0.71 herrmann,walter det SF 31 243 -2.16 -1.58 billups,c det PG 2 69 4.71 5.56 acker,alex det SG 7 21 1.61 -0.37 sharpe,walter det PF 3 7 -16.56 -2.16 DETROIT -0.67 4.10 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- jackson,stephen gsw SF 45 1817 0.05 -0.33 biedrins,andris gsw C 50 1547 3.48 0.56 azubuike,k gsw SG 50 1537 -1.32 -1.90 crawford,jamal gsw SG 38 1451 -2.59 0.32 watson,c.j. gsw PG 52 1260 -0.85 -1.29 maggette,corey gsw SF 36 1183 -0.31 2.04 turiaf,ronny gsw C 53 1070 4.85 1.38 morrow,anthony gsw SG 41 763 -1.67 -2.16 belinelli,marco gsw SG 32 679 -3.81 -1.89 wright,brandan gsw PF 31 523 -1.25 -0.92 randolph,a gsw PF 37 487 -5.30 -2.16 ellis,monta gsw SG 12 399 -6.97 -0.06 kurz,rob gsw SF 23 240 -1.39 -2.16 nelson,demarcus gsw PG 13 171 -7.79 -2.16 harrington,al gsw PF 5 166 -4.17 -0.39 williams,marcus gsw PG 11 56 -12.22 -3.95 davidson,j gsw PF 6 13 -28.18 -1.66 GOLDENSTATE -3.68 -2.10 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- ming,yao hou C 51 1664 3.08 3.10 alston,rafer hou PG 48 1590 0.33 0.64 scola,luis hou PF 54 1557 -0.27 -0.25 artest,ron hou SF 41 1400 3.12 3.34 mcgrady,tracy hou SG 35 1182 2.19 4.76 brooks,aaron hou PG 52 1180 -1.21 -0.64 landry,carl hou PF 54 1125 -0.14 0.82 battier,shane hou SF 32 1020 2.50 2.92 wafer,von hou SG 35 699 -0.85 -2.43 barry,brent hou SG 36 652 0.36 2.56 hayes,chuck hou PF 49 607 -2.40 1.07 head,luther hou SG 22 321 -5.05 -0.15 mutombo,dikembe hou C 4 20 -14.07 -1.90 dorsey,joey hou PF 3 6 -3.38 -2.16 HOUSTON 3.61 7.60 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- granger,danny ind SF 52 1882 5.33 1.48 jack,jarrett ind SG 56 1735 -2.91 -0.77 murphy,troy ind PF 51 1701 1.67 0.42 ford,t.j. ind PG 49 1508 -0.16 -0.19 foster,jeff ind C 51 1251 1.14 0.75 daniels,marquis ind SG 41 1231 -2.59 -1.80 rush,brandon ind SG 49 1022 -6.15 -2.16 nesterovic,r ind C 49 939 -0.34 -0.20 hibbert,roy ind C 45 546 1.63 -2.16 graham,stephen ind SF 37 497 -8.88 -1.25 dunleavy,mike ind SG 18 493 -1.77 1.00 diener,travis ind PG 36 483 -0.12 -0.75 mcroberts,josh ind PF 19 151 -5.24 -0.11 baston,maceo ind PF 17 146 -1.80 0.29 INDIANA -2.32 -1.27 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- thornton,al lac SF 55 2070 -3.52 -2.67 gordon,eric lac SG 55 1818 0.17 -2.16 camby,marcus lac C 43 1439 3.28 3.59 davis,baron lac PG 41 1420 0.76 3.89 randolph,zach lac PF 21 760 0.17 -0.85 davis,ricky lac SF 31 689 -5.61 -0.48 novak,steve lac PF 45 670 -2.37 -0.67 jones,fred lac SG 26 660 -0.45 -0.64 skinner,brian lac C 39 649 -4.67 -2.71 collins,mardy lac SG 30 635 -3.04 -3.01 kaman,chris lac C 15 532 -0.12 -1.99 jordan,deandre lac C 34 473 -4.20 -2.16 mobley,cuttino lac SG 11 364 -5.74 -1.26 davis,paul lac C 27 321 -4.86 -1.24 hart,jason lac PG 29 311 -6.81 -2.01 taylor,mike lac PG 24 283 -8.74 -2.16 thomas,tim lac PF 10 220 -6.85 -0.33 samb,cheick lac C 10 52 -15.61 -0.11 acker,alex lac SG 1 12 -22.28 -0.37 LACLIPPERS -9.21 -3.19 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- bryant,kobe lal SG 54 1968 6.74 7.27 gasol,pau lal PF 53 1936 4.23 4.18 fisher,derek lal PG 54 1698 0.78 -0.33 odom,lamar lal PF 51 1430 1.68 1.72 bynum,andrew lal C 46 1336 1.76 0.36 ariza,trevor lal SF 54 1289 3.57 0.96 vujacic,sasha lal SG 52 855 2.07 -1.21 radmanovic,vlad lal PF 46 767 -2.98 -0.58 farmar,jordan lal PG 37 707 -2.29 -1.32 walton,luke lal SF 37 585 -4.18 -1.21 powell,josh lal PF 33 312 -8.72 -3.95 mihm,chris lal C 18 103 -5.86 -2.01 yue,sun lal SF 10 29 -20.34 -2.16 morrison,adam lal SF 1 7 -22.95 -4.31 brown,shannon lal SG 1 6 -55.67 -2.36 mbenga,dj lal C 1 3 17.77 -0.95 LALAKERS 8.90 8.19 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- mayo,o.j. mem SG 54 2034 -0.86 -2.16 gay,rudy mem SF 51 1909 -2.08 -0.15 gasol,marc mem C 54 1620 1.27 -2.16 conley,mike mem PG 54 1484 -1.05 -1.42 warrick,hakim mem PF 54 1383 -1.94 -2.73 lowry,kyle mem PG 49 1060 0.73 1.53 arthur,darrell mem PF 48 943 -4.93 -2.16 ross,quinton mem SG 47 821 -3.72 -1.57 milicic,darko mem C 36 725 -0.17 -1.24 buckner,greg mem SG 42 544 -2.61 -0.25 jaric,marko mem PG 27 263 -6.83 0.29 miles,darius mem SF 18 198 0.49 -1.97 crittenton,j mem PG 7 44 -1.91 -2.49 haddadi,hamed mem C 4 14 10.92 -2.16 MEMPHIS -6.91 -6.61 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- wade,dwyane mia SG 53 2018 11.63 6.68 haslem,udonis mia PF 52 1798 -3.04 -2.43 chalmers,mario mia PG 53 1671 1.61 -2.16 marion,shawn mia PF 42 1517 0.13 4.45 cook,daequan mia SG 49 1264 -2.85 -2.85 beasley,michael mia PF 52 1255 -5.68 -2.16 anthony,joel mia C 50 889 0.30 -0.99 quinn,chris mia PG 47 771 -1.13 -0.13 diawara,y mia SG 45 569 -5.56 -2.44 magloire,jamaal mia C 35 413 -5.11 -5.81 jones,james mia PF 16 205 -6.81 -0.30 blount,mark mia C 17 186 -10.43 -4.90 banks,marcus mia PG 16 164 -2.70 -1.20 livingston,s mia PG 4 41 -8.19 -0.87 o'neal,jermaine mia C 1 27 0.35 1.20 wright,dorell mia SF 1 6 -15.22 -0.67 moon,jamario mia SF 1 5 -12.55 1.45 MIAMI 0.00 0.00 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- jefferson,r mil SF 57 2061 0.39 1.02 ridnour,luke mil PG 49 1526 1.53 -0.74 mbah_a_moute,l mil SF 57 1440 -1.76 -2.16 sessions,ramon mil PG 54 1404 1.83 -0.27 villanueva,c mil PF 53 1350 3.35 -2.37 redd,michael mil SG 33 1201 1.97 2.15 bogut,andrew mil C 36 1125 0.30 1.01 bell,charlie mil SG 45 1081 -3.59 -0.39 gadzuric,dan mil C 46 602 0.68 -2.25 elson,francisco mil C 38 568 -2.37 -3.12 alexander,joe mil PF 40 451 -4.17 -2.16 lue,tyronn mil PG 30 392 -3.18 -2.22 allen,malik mil PF 29 343 -4.55 -3.73 bogans,keith mil SG 5 97 -1.60 -0.09 croshere,austin mil PF 11 78 -1.31 -0.86 gill,eddie mil PG 4 36 5.14 -0.03 jones,damon mil PG 5 32 -7.43 -1.77 MILWAUKEE 0.21 -3.19 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- foye,randy min PG 53 1909 0.19 -1.06 jefferson,al min C 50 1832 2.42 0.25 gomes,ryan min SF 53 1668 -2.26 -1.15 miller,mike min SG 44 1375 0.70 1.15 telfair,s min PG 48 1278 -3.42 -2.65 love,kevin min PF 53 1274 -1.09 -2.16 smith,craig min PF 49 974 -0.34 -1.16 mccants,rashad min SG 34 635 -4.50 -1.65 carney,rodney min SG 42 619 -4.04 -1.96 ollie,kevin min PG 24 401 1.35 -2.36 cardinal,brian min PF 37 351 1.06 -0.70 brewer,corey min SF 15 308 -0.25 -2.36 collins,jason min C 14 164 -6.11 -2.94 madsen,mark min C 11 59 -7.49 -2.15 booth,calvin min C 1 1 -4.75 0.05 MINNESOTA -3.92 -5.43 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- carter,vince njn SG 54 1967 4.88 4.67 harris,devin njn PG 49 1756 4.73 1.88 lopez,brook njn C 55 1640 -2.58 -2.16 dooling,keyon njn PG 52 1357 -0.94 -1.29 hayes,jarvis njn SF 50 1265 -4.35 -2.10 simmons,bobby njn SF 46 1195 -0.50 -1.05 jianlian,yi njn PF 39 1003 -3.80 -3.36 anderson,ryan njn PF 48 945 -1.64 -2.16 boone,josh njn PF 42 726 -1.34 -1.83 hassell,trenton njn SF 33 614 -3.12 -2.46 najera,eduardo njn PF 27 319 -3.91 0.49 douglas-roberts njn SG 24 214 -8.08 -2.16 williams,sean njn C 20 205 -5.81 -0.63 swift,stromile njn C 6 63 -10.02 -2.75 ager,maurice njn SG 16 57 -13.41 -2.98 NEWJERSEY -2.83 -2.16 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- paul,chris nor PG 48 1790 13.31 8.11 west,david nor PF 46 1732 0.46 1.47 stojakovic,peja nor SF 46 1570 -0.89 0.58 posey,james nor SF 52 1484 1.45 1.69 butler,rasual nor SF 52 1478 -1.21 -2.37 chandler,tyson nor C 32 997 -1.67 0.82 armstrong,h nor C 48 735 -4.69 -2.24 brown,devin nor SF 44 680 -3.08 -1.32 daniels,antonio nor PG 31 465 -3.38 -0.39 marks,sean nor C 33 428 -6.35 -0.44 peterson,morris nor SG 28 363 -2.71 -0.20 wright,julian nor SF 30 292 -5.63 0.11 ely,melvin nor C 21 254 -6.05 -3.06 bowen,ryan nor PF 13 144 4.42 -0.52 james,mike nor PG 8 73 -8.21 -0.89 NEWORLEANS 3.19 5.57 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- duhon,chris nyk PG 52 2023 0.60 0.37 lee,david nyk PF 53 1876 0.34 1.29 chandler,wilson nyk SF 53 1704 -1.70 -1.05 harrington,al nyk PF 40 1407 -1.53 -0.39 richardson,q nyk SF 49 1407 -1.88 -0.93 robinson,nate nyk PG 46 1369 4.70 0.99 thomas,tim nyk SF 36 771 -0.21 -0.33 jeffries,jared nyk SF 32 726 -2.19 -0.75 crawford,jamal nyk SG 11 393 -2.31 0.32 randolph,zach nyk PF 11 388 -1.39 -0.85 roberson,a nyk PG 23 253 -2.34 -1.04 gallinari,d nyk SF 16 230 0.11 -2.16 rose,malik nyk PF 18 158 -15.93 -3.19 collins,mardy nyk SG 9 75 -9.11 -3.01 james,jerome nyk C 2 10 -18.15 -2.89 curry,eddy nyk C 1 3 -17.88 -3.98 NEWYORK -2.58 -0.65 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- durant,kevin okl SF 53 2122 3.01 -0.62 green,jeff okl PF 54 1995 0.08 -2.60 westbrook,r okl PG 54 1714 1.02 -2.16 watson,earl okl PG 54 1429 -5.20 -0.36 collison,nick okl PF 47 1199 0.79 -0.88 mason,desmond okl SF 39 1059 -5.20 -4.00 wilcox,chris okl PF 37 720 -4.52 -0.85 smith,joe okl PF 36 691 -1.99 -2.07 weaver,kyle okl SG 29 519 -0.88 -2.16 wilkins,damien okl SG 31 511 -5.04 -0.90 krstic,nenad okl C 18 418 -3.56 -3.20 petro,johan okl C 22 343 -7.52 -4.05 swift,robert okl C 17 244 -0.14 -2.51 atkins,chucky okl PG 6 67 -3.94 -0.50 sene,mouhamed okl C 5 24 -11.35 -1.29 hill,steven okl C 1 2 -13.38 -2.16 OKLAHOMACITY -6.14 -8.82 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- lewis,rashard orl PF 53 1947 4.31 3.48 turkoglu,hedo orl SF 52 1909 1.73 2.53 howard,dwight orl C 51 1852 5.92 2.24 nelson,jameer orl PG 42 1307 5.89 0.88 lee,courtney orl SG 48 1080 -0.72 -2.16 johnson,anthony orl PG 53 1016 -1.01 -1.64 bogans,keith orl SG 36 785 -1.20 -0.09 pietrus,mickael orl SF 30 781 0.07 -1.09 battie,tony orl C 51 779 -3.64 -2.36 redick,j.j. orl SG 39 683 -2.59 -0.79 gortat,marcin orl C 34 352 -1.05 -0.10 cook,brian orl PF 21 147 -8.86 -1.92 lue,tyronn orl PG 4 54 -4.28 -2.22 richardson,j orl SF 5 38 -11.99 -2.04 foyle,adonal orl C 5 28 -15.07 -1.49 ORLANDO 7.94 3.54 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- iguodala,andre phi SF 53 2045 4.79 4.24 miller,andre phi PG 53 1893 3.61 1.18 young,thaddeus phi SF 53 1809 -1.81 -0.07 dalembert,s phi C 53 1313 -4.19 -1.25 williams,louis phi PG 52 1191 0.01 0.15 green,willie phi SG 52 1133 -2.33 -3.53 brand,elton phi PF 29 921 -3.33 4.99 speights,m phi PF 50 767 1.88 -2.16 evans,reggie phi PF 50 638 -2.67 -2.86 ivey,royal phi PG 42 500 0.23 -2.56 ratliff,theo phi C 25 278 1.94 0.15 rush,kareem phi SG 21 169 -6.11 -3.22 marshall,d phi PF 12 86 7.20 -1.41 PHILADELPHIA 0.83 1.77 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- stoudemire,a pho C 53 1949 2.50 3.97 nash,steve pho PG 48 1606 -1.29 1.66 hill,grant pho SF 53 1515 0.73 0.88 o'neal,shaq pho C 46 1397 3.32 1.31 barnes,matt pho PF 48 1216 -1.09 -0.19 barbosa,leandro pho SG 48 1103 2.87 1.44 richardson,j pho SG 29 1001 1.28 2.99 bell,raja pho SG 22 711 -1.30 0.64 amundson,louis pho PF 47 573 -0.85 -1.03 diaw,boris pho PF 22 536 -1.56 0.17 lopez,robin pho C 35 371 -1.88 -2.16 dragic,goran pho PG 28 357 -5.94 -2.16 dudley,jared pho SF 20 157 4.44 -0.13 tucker,alando pho SF 13 126 -8.30 -0.80 singletary,sean pho PG 13 121 -2.63 -2.16 brown,dee pho PG 2 28 -10.83 -0.88 PHOENIX 2.22 6.23 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- aldridge,l por PF 53 1938 1.56 0.45 roy,brandon por SG 49 1835 7.10 3.32 outlaw,travis por SF 52 1423 -1.22 -0.73 fernandez,rudy por PG 52 1364 2.16 -2.16 blake,steve por PG 40 1217 1.43 -1.17 przybilla,joel por C 53 1171 -1.38 -1.50 oden,greg por C 46 1051 0.67 -2.16 batum,nicolas por SF 53 925 0.63 -2.16 rodriguez,s por PG 53 898 -2.53 -2.51 bayless,jerryd por PG 32 480 -3.77 -2.16 frye,channing por PF 38 422 -6.21 -2.31 diogu,ike por PF 19 72 -17.85 -2.63 randolph,s por C 3 8 -13.57 -0.39 webster,martell por SF 1 5 -18.04 -1.89 PORTLAND 4.10 -3.48 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- salmons,john sac SG 53 1980 0.09 -1.04 udrih,beno sac PG 53 1596 -2.49 -2.42 thompson,jason sac PF 55 1448 -4.14 -2.16 hawes,spencer sac C 51 1391 -3.32 -2.56 miller,brad sac C 43 1358 1.39 1.62 martin,kevin sac SG 33 1256 1.48 2.25 garcia,f sac SF 38 1002 0.93 0.35 jackson,bobby sac SG 51 953 -3.26 0.39 moore,mikki sac PF 46 749 -2.84 -1.25 brown,bobby sac PG 47 677 -8.39 -2.16 greene,donte sac SF 30 387 -8.58 -2.16 williams,s sac PF 30 303 -7.28 -3.23 douby,quincy sac PG 20 227 -6.27 -3.49 thomas,kenny sac PF 7 57 0.57 -2.36 SACRAMENTO -10.30 -4.49 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- duncan,tim san C 52 1839 7.45 5.87 mason,roger san PG 53 1628 -2.22 -1.42 parker,tony san PG 43 1467 0.13 1.26 finley,michael san SF 52 1453 -3.17 -1.80 bonner,matt san PF 52 1229 3.33 -0.47 bowen,bruce san SF 53 1069 -1.80 -0.34 ginobili,manu san SG 38 1038 7.91 7.42 hill,george san PG 51 915 -0.38 -2.16 thomas,kurt san C 50 811 0.00 -1.26 udoka,ime san SF 38 474 -5.58 0.38 oberto,fabricio san PF 38 469 -0.38 0.27 tolliver,a san C 19 208 -4.75 -2.16 vaughn,jacque san PG 18 195 -9.26 -3.11 farmer,desmon san SG 3 54 -11.10 -0.16 hairston,malik san SG 7 44 -1.40 -2.16 croshere,austin san PF 3 23 -17.29 -0.86 ahearn,blake san PG 3 18 1.70 -0.59 SANANTONIO 3.51 4.10 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- bosh,chris tor PF 51 1949 3.62 4.22 parker,anthony tor SG 54 1772 -0.46 1.34 bargnani,andrea tor PF 56 1708 -2.68 -2.19 calderon,jose tor PG 42 1444 2.78 1.53 moon,jamario tor SF 54 1378 3.12 1.45 kapono,jason tor SF 54 1303 -4.89 -2.52 o'neal,jermaine tor C 41 1217 -1.23 1.20 graham,joey tor SF 53 1093 -2.80 -2.87 ukic,roko tor SG 46 572 -5.53 -2.16 solomon,will tor PG 39 544 -4.18 -2.16 humphries,kris tor C 29 269 -1.48 -2.51 voskuhl,jake tor C 24 156 -9.25 -1.54 adams,hassan tor SF 12 52 -15.93 -1.39 marion,shawn tor SF 1 40 6.72 4.45 jawai,nathan tor C 4 13 -29.73 -2.16 banks,marcus tor PG 1 12 -2.37 -1.20 TORONTO -3.40 1.05 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- brewer,ronnie uta SG 54 1713 0.99 1.99 okur,mehmet uta C 46 1606 1.35 1.60 millsap,paul uta PF 49 1573 3.86 1.80 williams,deron uta PG 41 1481 0.93 0.19 miles,c.j. uta SG 50 1205 -1.06 -0.93 korver,kyle uta SF 51 1181 -1.47 -0.26 kirilenko,a uta SF 40 1172 6.37 5.07 price,ronnie uta PG 42 699 -3.44 -1.04 knight,brevin uta PG 47 666 -2.98 0.31 koufos,kosta uta PF 48 568 -2.16 -2.16 harpring,matt uta SF 41 493 -1.97 -1.21 boozer,carlos uta PF 12 406 5.01 2.87 almond,morris uta SG 25 258 -8.94 -0.43 fesenko,kyrylo uta C 18 143 1.25 -0.75 collins,jarron uta C 17 137 -5.36 -0.87 UTAH 3.15 4.55 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+------- jamison,antawn was PF 54 2083 2.52 0.79 butler,caron was SF 49 1902 2.24 2.44 young,nick was SG 54 1179 -5.46 -3.56 mcguire,dominic was SF 51 1117 -0.96 -1.99 blatche,andray was C 45 1052 0.12 -0.56 james,mike was PG 35 1029 -4.51 -0.89 songaila,darius was PF 53 984 -3.04 -2.15 stevenson,d was SG 32 886 -4.49 -1.70 mcgee,javale was C 48 734 -3.66 -2.16 dixon,juan was SG 35 550 -6.17 -2.46 crittenton,j was PG 30 491 -2.53 -2.49 thomas,etan was C 26 303 -6.47 -1.79 daniels,antonio was PG 13 289 -2.11 -0.39 brown,dee was PG 17 232 -3.57 -0.88 pecherov,o was PF 17 141 -15.14 -2.13 WASHINGTON -8.61 -4.08 ---------------+----+------+-------+---------+-------+-------
So is SPM a great boxscore-based method to rank players? I don't really think so, seeing as it's meant merely as a complement to "pure" adjusted +/-. But at the same time, it does exhibit at least some ability to effectively predict a future team's performance based on the weighted projected SPMs of its players. And that means it's worth looking at this summer when free agency is over and you're trying to ascertain which teams will be better and which will be worse in 2010. (Hmm, do I sense a future column topic here?)
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I looked at a few players (not those obvious superstars) that I think they are the most valuable players on their respective teams and they all are rated high (highest or 2nd highest rating on their respective teams) by your SPM. I also looked at a few players that I think they are detrimental to team-oriented offense and defense despite they score more (because they shoot a lot), they all are ranked relatively low among their team main rotation players (ie, playing 25+ min). Thus, I like your SPM which relatively accurately reflects a player’s value. At least your SPM is much, much, much better than Cuban’s rating system. As soon as I saw Telfair (a backup-caliber PG) and B-Gordon (an extremely selfish small ball-hog) are ranked so high and Roy and the likes are nowhere to be found, I know Cuban’s system is useless. I like your “Versatility Index” which is much, much better than “PER” that overemphasizes scores and encourages ball-hogs. Keep up the good work!
March 12th, 2010 at 9:25 pm
Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now. Keep it up!
November 14th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Lojra Falas