Who’s Over/Underachiving So Far?
Posted by Neil Paine on November 10, 2010
Which players are playing better or worse than we would have expected so far this season? Well, let's look at each player's actual Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) in 2011 vs. what the simple projection system would have predicted their SPM to be. The overachievers:
| Player | Age | MP | SPM | MP-1 | SPM-1 | MP-2 | SPM-2 | MP-3 | SPM-3 | Expected | Actual-Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elton Brand | 31 | 251 | 7.36 | 2297 | -1.35 | 920 | -2.73 | 274 | -1.64 | -1.59 | 8.95 |
| Ryan Hollins | 26 | 104 | 4.23 | 1223 | -4.14 | 444 | -3.79 | 532 | -4.60 | -4.08 | 8.31 |
| Toney Douglas | 24 | 186 | 7.06 | 1087 | -0.37 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 | 7.42 |
| Daniel Gibson | 24 | 197 | 5.96 | 1068 | -1.57 | 1795 | -1.39 | 1765 | 0.19 | -1.25 | 7.20 |
| Paul Millsap | 25 | 262 | 8.42 | 2277 | 0.99 | 2290 | 2.46 | 1702 | 1.31 | 1.49 | 6.94 |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 25 | 101 | 4.07 | 511 | -2.55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -2.52 | 6.59 |
| Monta Ellis | 25 | 281 | 6.69 | 2647 | 0.23 | 892 | -1.48 | 3071 | 1.06 | 0.14 | 6.55 |
| Francisco Garcia | 29 | 159 | 5.91 | 575 | -2.09 | 1975 | -0.34 | 2096 | 1.33 | -0.56 | 6.47 |
| James Jones | 30 | 215 | 3.75 | 503 | -2.58 | 630 | -4.53 | 1276 | 0.16 | -2.62 | 6.37 |
| Al Horford | 24 | 240 | 8.38 | 2845 | 2.59 | 2242 | 1.39 | 2540 | -0.14 | 2.05 | 6.32 |
| Dwight Howard | 25 | 184 | 11.67 | 2843 | 5.81 | 2821 | 5.90 | 3088 | 4.81 | 5.80 | 5.87 |
| Kris Humphries | 25 | 101 | 3.67 | 1221 | -1.88 | 265 | -1.79 | 925 | -2.06 | -1.87 | 5.53 |
| Tyson Chandler | 28 | 160 | 4.04 | 1163 | -2.07 | 1445 | -2.28 | 2783 | 1.58 | -1.42 | 5.45 |
| Vince Carter | 34 | 166 | 8.05 | 2310 | 2.45 | 2946 | 2.90 | 2959 | 3.08 | 2.64 | 5.40 |
| Marcin Gortat | 26 | 104 | 4.88 | 1088 | -1.09 | 794 | 1.31 | 41 | -1.88 | -0.45 | 5.33 |
| Russell Westbrook | 22 | 225 | 5.31 | 2813 | 0.95 | 2668 | -1.31 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 5.08 |
| Shannon Brown | 25 | 145 | 3.33 | 1700 | -1.44 | 477 | -2.49 | 240 | -7.07 | -1.66 | 5.00 |
| Rudy Gay | 24 | 332 | 5.41 | 3175 | 0.76 | 2945 | -0.30 | 3000 | 1.89 | 0.57 | 4.84 |
| Melvin Ely | 32 | 102 | -3.53 | 0 | 0.00 | 373 | -9.26 | 621 | -6.35 | -8.29 | 4.75 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 22 | 123 | 1.55 | 1137 | -3.35 | 771 | -2.96 | 0 | 0.00 | -3.18 | 4.73 |
| Jason Smith | 24 | 143 | 0.99 | 658 | -3.61 | 0 | 0.00 | 1107 | -4.42 | -3.72 | 4.71 |
| Glen Davis | 25 | 243 | 1.47 | 933 | -4.44 | 1637 | -1.88 | 940 | -2.11 | -3.12 | 4.58 |
| Marquis Daniels | 30 | 137 | 1.23 | 937 | -4.22 | 1700 | -2.46 | 1546 | -2.95 | -3.34 | 4.57 |
| Luis Scola | 30 | 204 | 5.78 | 2671 | 0.69 | 2488 | 2.45 | 2024 | 0.98 | 1.22 | 4.56 |
| Mike Conley | 23 | 309 | 4.48 | 2569 | 0.16 | 2508 | 0.37 | 1381 | -2.23 | 0.09 | 4.39 |
How about the players who have underperformed the most so far?
| Player | Age | MP | SPM | MP-1 | SPM-1 | MP-2 | SPM-2 | MP-3 | SPM-3 | Expected | Actual-Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Robinson | 26 | 101 | -9.78 | 1115 | 1.50 | 2209 | 2.71 | 1883 | 0.74 | 1.95 | -11.73 |
| Bill Walker | 23 | 109 | -8.15 | 768 | 0.89 | 216 | -1.11 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.66 | -8.81 |
| James Harden | 21 | 134 | -7.15 | 1738 | 1.55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.59 | -8.74 |
| DeJuan Blair | 21 | 140 | -5.42 | 1494 | 2.13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.19 | -7.62 |
| Yi Jianlian | 23 | 100 | -9.50 | 1655 | -2.71 | 1421 | -3.27 | 1647 | -4.62 | -3.00 | -6.51 |
| Amare Stoudemire | 28 | 239 | -3.27 | 2838 | 3.01 | 1948 | 1.85 | 2677 | 6.47 | 3.11 | -6.37 |
| LeBron James | 26 | 293 | 5.55 | 2966 | 11.54 | 3054 | 12.14 | 3027 | 9.97 | 11.66 | -6.11 |
| Josh Childress | 27 | 119 | -5.23 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 2274 | 0.60 | 0.60 | -5.83 |
| Kevin Durant | 22 | 256 | -0.59 | 3239 | 6.96 | 2885 | 3.11 | 2768 | -1.52 | 5.24 | -5.83 |
| David Lee | 27 | 237 | -2.75 | 3019 | 3.56 | 2824 | 2.28 | 2356 | 1.57 | 3.03 | -5.79 |
| Carl Landry | 27 | 181 | -5.01 | 2469 | 0.48 | 1467 | 0.71 | 711 | 3.26 | 0.63 | -5.64 |
| Samuel Dalembert | 29 | 105 | -5.65 | 2124 | 0.12 | 2036 | -1.39 | 2724 | -0.54 | -0.39 | -5.26 |
| Baron Davis | 31 | 109 | -2.67 | 2523 | 2.93 | 2248 | 0.82 | 3196 | 4.57 | 2.56 | -5.22 |
| John Salmons | 31 | 251 | -4.28 | 2824 | 1.51 | 2959 | 0.35 | 2517 | -1.31 | 0.89 | -5.17 |
| Darko Milicic | 25 | 178 | -7.56 | 685 | -1.73 | 1034 | -2.31 | 1663 | -4.55 | -2.43 | -5.13 |
| Keyon Dooling | 30 | 119 | -6.46 | 971 | -2.11 | 2074 | -0.71 | 1334 | -1.33 | -1.39 | -5.08 |
| Jermaine O'Neal | 32 | 124 | -5.96 | 1991 | -0.13 | 2027 | -2.79 | 1206 | -3.72 | -1.21 | -4.75 |
| Channing Frye | 27 | 177 | -2.60 | 2190 | 3.32 | 746 | -4.04 | 1342 | -0.23 | 2.06 | -4.66 |
| Spencer Hawes | 22 | 103 | -7.22 | 1904 | -2.43 | 2259 | -2.94 | 931 | -5.17 | -2.68 | -4.54 |
| Reggie Williams | 24 | 150 | -4.76 | 782 | -0.28 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.28 | -4.48 |
| J.J. Redick | 26 | 124 | -4.87 | 1808 | 0.36 | 1111 | -2.89 | 276 | -3.28 | -0.46 | -4.41 |
| Gerald Wallace | 28 | 274 | 0.01 | 3119 | 4.35 | 2669 | 4.73 | 2376 | 3.04 | 4.35 | -4.34 |
| Tayshaun Prince | 30 | 275 | -5.23 | 1664 | -0.89 | 3057 | -1.15 | 2694 | -0.43 | -0.94 | -4.29 |
| Robin Lopez | 22 | 136 | -6.15 | 986 | -1.13 | 614 | -4.60 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.91 | -4.25 |
| Andre Iguodala | 27 | 212 | -1.23 | 3192 | 2.54 | 3269 | 3.24 | 3242 | 4.55 | 2.97 | -4.20 |
Finally, the "they are who we thought they were" players:
| Player | Age | MP | SPM | MP-1 | SPM-1 | MP-2 | SPM-2 | MP-3 | SPM-3 | Expected | Actual-Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | 24 | 112 | -1.13 | 1442 | -0.31 | 728 | -4.29 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.09 | -0.03 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 25 | 348 | 1.49 | 2922 | 1.72 | 3004 | 1.37 | 2649 | 0.60 | 1.53 | -0.04 |
| Kobe Bryant | 32 | 254 | 5.75 | 2835 | 5.14 | 2960 | 6.38 | 3192 | 7.29 | 5.71 | 0.04 |
| Charlie Villanueva | 26 | 218 | 1.08 | 1848 | 0.93 | 2095 | 2.15 | 1829 | -2.26 | 1.04 | 0.05 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | 26 | 144 | -0.79 | 2348 | -0.79 | 1451 | -0.23 | 1436 | -1.58 | -0.72 | -0.07 |
| Keith Bogans | 30 | 151 | -0.98 | 1559 | -1.24 | 1272 | -0.59 | 2198 | -0.08 | -0.91 | -0.07 |
| Andris Biedrins | 24 | 187 | 1.48 | 763 | -0.45 | 1863 | 2.62 | 2078 | 2.07 | 1.40 | 0.08 |
| Courtney Lee | 25 | 118 | -0.60 | 2375 | -0.62 | 1939 | -0.30 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.52 | -0.08 |
| Carlos Arroyo | 31 | 183 | -2.49 | 1585 | -2.33 | 0 | 0.00 | 1269 | -2.21 | -2.33 | -0.15 |
| Dwyane Wade | 29 | 275 | 8.60 | 2792 | 8.40 | 3048 | 9.81 | 1954 | 2.65 | 8.44 | 0.16 |
| Dante Cunningham | 23 | 171 | -0.48 | 707 | -0.68 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.67 | 0.19 |
| Kevin Love | 22 | 227 | 1.30 | 1714 | 2.44 | 2048 | -0.20 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.49 | -0.19 |
| Mike Bibby | 32 | 246 | 0.87 | 2195 | 0.38 | 2740 | 2.27 | 1573 | 0.49 | 1.06 | -0.19 |
| Sebastian Telfair | 25 | 185 | -2.44 | 659 | -3.27 | 2095 | -2.37 | 1933 | -2.52 | -2.65 | 0.21 |
| Kyle Korver | 29 | 119 | -0.24 | 952 | -0.20 | 1874 | -0.82 | 1732 | -0.14 | -0.46 | 0.22 |
| Omri Casspi | 22 | 163 | -1.31 | 1931 | -1.69 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.65 | 0.34 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | 24 | 185 | -0.47 | 1866 | -0.74 | 2114 | -1.05 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.84 | 0.37 |
| Mike Dunleavy | 30 | 199 | -0.99 | 1486 | -1.41 | 495 | -1.59 | 2953 | 2.27 | -0.62 | -0.37 |
| Jamal Crawford | 30 | 208 | 0.39 | 2460 | 1.83 | 2479 | -1.14 | 3190 | 0.35 | 0.77 | -0.38 |
| Marvin Williams | 24 | 154 | -1.01 | 2468 | -0.99 | 2093 | 0.55 | 2765 | -0.93 | -0.57 | -0.44 |
| George Hill | 24 | 104 | 1.47 | 2276 | 1.68 | 1270 | -1.39 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 0.44 |
| Ben Wallace | 36 | 194 | 1.22 | 1975 | 1.52 | 1314 | -0.46 | 2205 | -0.96 | 0.77 | 0.45 |
| Drew Gooden | 29 | 167 | -0.44 | 1755 | -0.90 | 1264 | -0.43 | 2122 | -1.68 | -0.90 | 0.45 |
| Marc Gasol | 26 | 238 | 2.48 | 2469 | 2.88 | 2521 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.48 |
| Udonis Haslem | 30 | 201 | -0.82 | 2177 | -1.03 | 2560 | -1.72 | 1806 | -1.59 | -1.31 | 0.49 |
November 10th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
No Hornets players on the overperforming list. Interesting.
November 10th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
That's actually not too surprising, since SPM predicted the Hornets would be good again this year:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7896
Maybe not "+10.56 SRS" good, but "47 wins" good nonetheless.
November 10th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
3 of the top 4 picks in my fantasy league are on the underperforming list.
November 10th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
I'm amazed that Darko and Yi Jianlian are failing to meet their expectations by such a wide margin, given how little was expected to begin with. Somehow they managed to underachieve at underachieving!
November 10th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
It will be interesting to see if Lebron stays on the underachieving list or if he eventually "figures it out" in Miami.
November 10th, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Dwight Howard and Vince Carter both on the overachievers list (as well as my favorite Marcin) is an eyepopper and just what the overlooked Magic need to challenge the Heat.
November 10th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Yeah I think its funny that folks keep saying the Hornets are "overachieving" or "overperforming."
Look at the roster. It's really good. I'm not saying its Lakers-good or Miami-good, but its really good. The Hornets were a 56 win team in 07-08. They were expected to possibly be a 60 win team and maybe even challenge the Lakers in 08-09 but they were decimated by injuries - still, they managed a respectable 49 wins. Then there was last year, when they would have almost certainly been atleast a 45ish win team if CP hadn't gotten hurt. Now they have a roster that's better than its been since 07-08, and a coach who has gotten the team recommited on defense. They aren't overacheiving... they are simply achieving.
November 10th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
considering what Lamar Odom's Shooting percentages have been, he has to be on this list! Obviously SPM doesn't factor that stuff, but I'm just saying a guy who is a career 50% efg% shooting 68% efg% is something to behold (along with his 2nd highest rebounding rate and highest WS/48) and PER over the age of 30 should be recognized.
November 10th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
im pretty sure jason smith is on the hornets.
November 10th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
#7 Agreed. A healthy Paul, a younger Posey (Ariza), addition by subtraction for better D (Stojakovic, Peterson), acquiring Belinelli sitting Thornton for better D along with aging Spurs, Mavs & the Hornets could easily revisit 50 wins.
#8
No Lebron fan here but I've followed the Heat long enough (1996) to know it's not all on the player to "figure it out" -- especially when that player is a 3 in Riley's system (ibid. Mashburn, Marion ). Rileyball disciple Erik Spoelstra is much more apostolic than Stan Van Gundy ever was. As a result, you see MUCH more standing around when the 'big 3' *take turns* handling and iso-ing during all too typical 1-v-5 pick-and-rolls.
To date, James is averaging career LOWS in minutes-played, FGAs, offensive rebounding & near-career-lows in FG%, USG% & FTAs. He's averaging career HIGHS in TOs, TO-rate, assists and AST-rate.
So it's not clear whether James is "underachieving" or underutilized given a) the presence of 2 x high-usage teammates which James is unselfishly sacrificing shots + touches for b) a system that depends so much on iso matchups which become iso mismatches when defenses double, triple while teammates standaround waiting for kickout-3s or their turn to iso-kamikaze.
November 10th, 2010 at 10:18 pm
David Lee was really never that good, I hope he does well we enjoyed watching him at the garden he is a hustler but never thought he was that talented
November 10th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
In a big-3 to big-3 comparison, it'd be interesting (to me if no one else) to see the same analyses run for 2007-08 season at a similar point in time (November) + an end-of-season (April) comparison.
I'd expect to see similar falloff from Garnett, Allen or Pierce at the start of their 1st season together, some level of recovery, adjustment or permanence by season's end.
November 10th, 2010 at 11:33 pm
I don't think Paul Millsap is overachieving. I expect him to score 11 points in the last 28 of regulation of every game the rest of the season. Do not try to break this message down hermeneutically. It has been hermeneutically sealed.
November 11th, 2010 at 11:13 am
Here is the Advanced SPM list of overachievers, minimum of 120 minutes played:
Top 20:Tm Player ProjSPM SPM Delta RegrSPM UpdProj Heat
PHI Elton Brand -0.89 6.34 7.23 5.78 0.06 0.95
NJN Kris Humphries -2.45 4.66 7.10 2.81 -1.73 0.72
DAL Tyson Chandler -1.56 4.81 6.37 3.98 -0.28 1.28
UTA Paul Millsap 2.16 8.43 6.27 7.70 2.90 0.74
NYK Landry Fields -5.28 0.51 5.79 0.32 -3.85 1.43
SAC Francisco Garcia -1.37 4.19 5.57 3.26 -0.85 0.53
MIA James Jones -3.39 1.76 5.14 1.77 -2.35 1.04
ORL Brandon Bass -1.23 3.83 5.06 2.85 -0.64 0.59
NJN Devin Harris 1.04 5.99 4.95 5.12 1.51 0.47
OKC Russell Westbrook 2.27 7.05 4.78 6.33 2.74 0.47
ORL Vince Carter 1.87 6.65 4.78 5.77 2.25 0.38
BOS Marquis Daniels -2.68 2.03 4.71 1.06 -2.24 0.44
TOR Reggie Evans -3.22 1.38 4.61 1.05 -2.14 1.08
ORL Dwight Howard 5.59 10.14 4.55 8.86 5.89 0.31
NYK Ronny Turiaf -0.84 3.68 4.52 2.69 0.12 0.96
MIA Joel Anthony -1.70 2.79 4.49 1.91 -1.36 0.34
SAS Richard Jefferson -0.31 4.13 4.44 3.79 0.13 0.44
ORL Jameer Nelson 1.69 6.09 4.40 4.93 1.90 0.21
GSW Monta Ellis 0.67 5.03 4.37 4.89 1.26 0.59
ATL Al Horford 3.39 7.73 4.35 6.77 3.79 0.40
Bottom 20:
Tm Player ProjSPM SPM Delta RegrSPM UpdProj Heat
DET Tayshaun Prince -0.14 -3.65 -3.51 -3.05 -0.49 -0.35
UTA Al Jefferson 1.47 -2.05 -3.53 -1.39 0.77 -0.70
BOS Jermaine O'Neal -1.02 -4.71 -3.68 -3.99 -1.44 -0.41
DAL Brendan Haywood -0.20 -3.89 -3.69 -3.29 -0.52 -0.32
OKC Jeff Green 0.44 -3.47 -3.91 -2.80 0.16 -0.28
PHO Channing Frye 1.50 -2.47 -3.98 -2.15 1.14 -0.36
NJN Brook Lopez 2.06 -2.02 -4.08 -1.62 1.64 -0.43
PHI Spencer Hawes -0.59 -4.69 -4.10 -4.21 -1.15 -0.56
MIN Nikola Pekovic -3.50 -7.61 -4.11 -6.65 -4.68 -1.18
WAS Yi Jianlian -2.62 -6.75 -4.13 -5.85 -3.20 -0.58
SAC Carl Landry -0.63 -4.83 -4.20 -4.08 -1.08 -0.45
MIA LeBron James 11.72 7.50 -4.22 7.14 10.84 -0.88
GSW Reggie Williams -0.06 -4.35 -4.29 -3.64 -0.83 -0.77
OKC Nenad Krstic -1.80 -6.35 -4.55 -5.35 -2.15 -0.35
PHO Robin Lopez -1.29 -6.19 -4.90 -5.25 -1.75 -0.46
ORL J.J. Redick -0.02 -4.93 -4.91 -4.02 -0.33 -0.31
CHI Luol Deng 1.17 -3.76 -4.93 -2.96 0.77 -0.39
SAS DeJuan Blair 1.47 -3.57 -5.04 -2.91 0.90 -0.57
OKC Kevin Durant 5.86 0.72 -5.14 0.96 5.25 -0.61
OKC James Harden 1.11 -6.55 -7.65 -5.55 0.36 -0.75
Anyone can run these numbers: I've posted the spreadsheets for Advanced SPM online over at APBR:
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=32511#32511
As an OKC fan, I am rather disturbed by 4 OKC players making the bottom 20, including the worst 2!
For those interested, John Wall is just off the top 20, with a 4.64 Adv. SPM and a projection before the season of 0.51 (median for a #1 over all rookie).
An interesting thing to follow this year will be the progression of the 21 year old forwards: Anthony Randolph, Blake Griffin, DeJuan Blair, and Serge Ibaka. Blake Griffin and Ibaka lead the way currently.
November 11th, 2010 at 11:14 am
BTW: is there any way for BBR to get the pre tag to work here in the comments?
November 11th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
I'm not sure, I'll have to look at why it's not working. Even I can't get html tags to work in the comments unless I go to the comment-edit screen. Idk if it's a browser issue (I'm in Firefox), or what.
November 12th, 2010 at 8:52 am
It's a pre tags can really mess things up issue.
November 14th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Well LeBron is slowly coming around, pretty great performance against Boston.
He's figuring out the LeBron/Chris Paul role. I expect his shooting percentages to improve at least, his 3 pointers for example.
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:40 am
Wow I may need to show my son this. I had no idea of all the projections or how to do that. He will find this fasinating. Thank you for the information.