CBB: R.I.P. John Wooden (1910-2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on June 5, 2010

Note: This post was originally published at College Basketball Reference, S-R's brand-new College Hoops site, so when you're done reading, go over and check it out!

When the great John Wooden passed away on Friday at the age of 99, he left behind a staggering resume, arguably the most dominant winning legacy of any coach in any sport. Wooden won 10 championships at the helm of the UCLA Bruins during the 1960s and 70s, including an astonishing run of 7 straight titles from 1967-73; in the annals of basketball history, the only coach whose run of dominance is even on par with Wooden's is his NBA contemporary, Red Auerbach. Of course, Wooden was more than just a great coach -- and I'll leave the kind words about Wooden as a human being (of which there are many) to better writers than I -- but I did want to take a statistical look at just how amazing his coaching career was.

Exactly how impressive was Wooden's run in the 60s and early 70s? One measure of coaching greatness is the ability to resist the "pull of parity" -- since a .500 record relentlessly tugs at good teams and bad ones alike, drawing them inexorably toward the mean if given enough seasons, sustained greatness like Wooden's suggests a significant amount of skill. In the NCAA Tournament era (1939-present), we can quantify the pull of parity on any school thusly:

Expected Win % = 0.235 + 0.552*Previous Season Win %

This means that a team that won 88% of its games last year (for instance, Duke in 2010) should only expect to win 72% of its games next year, because parity wants to drag them toward .500. The assumption we're going to use is that if Duke ends up winning more than 72% of their games, it would be an indicator of Mike Krzyzewski's coaching skill.

So back to Coach Wooden... Here's his career coaching record, alongside his school's expected Win % every year, and the number of wins by which he exceeded that expectation:

Year	School	Conf	G	W	L	WPct	xWPct	WAE
1947	INDS	IND	25	17	8	0.680	0.649	0.8
1948	INDS	IND	34	27	7	0.794	0.610	6.2
1949	UCLA	PC10	29	22	7	0.759	0.500	7.5
1950	UCLA	PC10	31	24	7	0.774	0.654	3.7
1951	UCLA	PC10	29	19	10	0.655	0.662	-0.2
1952	UCLA	PC10	31	19	12	0.613	0.597	0.5
1953	UCLA	PC10	24	16	8	0.667	0.573	2.2
1954	UCLA	PC10	25	18	7	0.720	0.603	2.9
1955	UCLA	PC10	26	21	5	0.808	0.633	4.6
1956	UCLA	PC10	28	22	6	0.786	0.681	2.9
1957	UCLA	PC10	26	22	4	0.846	0.669	4.6
1958	UCLA	PC10	26	16	10	0.615	0.702	-2.3
1959	UCLA	PC10	25	16	9	0.640	0.575	1.6
1960	UCLA	PC10	26	14	12	0.538	0.588	-1.3
1961	UCLA	PC10	26	18	8	0.692	0.532	4.2
1962	UCLA	PC10	29	18	11	0.621	0.617	0.1
1963	UCLA	PC10	29	20	9	0.690	0.578	3.2
1964	UCLA	PC10	30	30	0	1.000	0.616	11.5
1965	UCLA	PC10	30	28	2	0.933	0.787	4.4
1966	UCLA	PC10	26	18	8	0.692	0.750	-1.5
1967	UCLA	PC10	30	30	0	1.000	0.617	11.5
1968	UCLA	PC10	30	29	1	0.967	0.787	5.4
1969	UCLA	PC10	30	29	1	0.967	0.769	5.9
1970	UCLA	PC10	30	28	2	0.933	0.769	4.9
1971	UCLA	PC10	30	29	1	0.967	0.750	6.5
1972	UCLA	PC10	30	30	0	1.000	0.769	6.9
1973	UCLA	PC10	30	30	0	1.000	0.787	6.4
1974	UCLA	PC10	30	26	4	0.867	0.787	2.4
1975	UCLA	PC10	31	28	3	0.903	0.713	5.9

For his career, Wooden eluded the pull of parity by 111.6 wins, which ranks him tied for 5th in the NCAA Tournament era:

Coach	TotalG	TotalWAE
Dean Smith	1133	129.7
Mike Krzyzewski	1107	127.6
Lute Olson	1060	117.0
Jerry Tarkanian	875	113.8
Adolph Rupp	863	111.6
John Wooden	826	111.6
Bob Knight	1273	108.1
Jim Boeheim	1087	103.9
Jim Calhoun	1121	103.2
Roy Williams	732	103.0
Rick Pitino	749	98.5
Eddie Sutton	1132	97.5
Lefty Driesell	1180	95.6
Lou Henson	1140	88.2
Bob Huggins	776	83.6
John Calipari	580	80.6
John Thompson	835	78.3
Ray Meyer	1078	77.5
Don Haskins	1072	72.0
Rick Majerus	632	71.8
Frank McGuire	785	71.7
Mike Montgomery	824	71.4
Denny Crum	970	71.2
Ralph Miller	1039	69.9
Nolan Richardson	716	65.7
Norm Stewart	963	64.9
Billy Tubbs	926	64.8
Lou Carnesecca	726	64.6
Bill Self	494	62.6
Jack Gardner	721	62.3

He also did it in only 826 career games, which is fewer than any of the coaches around him on the list. If you set a minimum of 500 total games coached, only 2 coaches have kept their teams above the pull of parity on a per-game basis as much as Wooden did:

Coach	TotalG	TotalWAE	WAE/35G
Roy Williams	732	103.0	4.9
John Calipari	580	80.6	4.9
John Wooden	826	111.6	4.7
Rick Pitino	749	98.5	4.6
Jerry Tarkanian	875	113.8	4.6
Adolph Rupp	863	111.6	4.5
Mike Krzyzewski	1107	127.6	4.0
Dean Smith	1133	129.7	4.0
Rick Majerus	632	71.8	4.0
Lute Olson	1060	117.0	3.9
Bob Huggins	776	83.6	3.8
Everett Case	511	51.7	3.5
Tubby Smith	599	58.3	3.4
Jim Boeheim	1087	103.9	3.3
John Thompson	835	78.3	3.3
Jim Calhoun	1121	103.2	3.2
Nolan Richardson	716	65.7	3.2
Frank McGuire	785	71.7	3.2
Lou Carnesecca	726	64.6	3.1
Peck Hickman	626	55.6	3.1

And if you set the cut-off to 800 total games coached, Wooden is the best of the Tourney era:

Coach	TotalG	TotalWAE	WAE/35G
John Wooden	826	111.6	4.7
Jerry Tarkanian	875	113.8	4.6
Adolph Rupp	863	111.6	4.5
Mike Krzyzewski	1107	127.6	4.0
Dean Smith	1133	129.7	4.0
Lute Olson	1060	117.0	3.9
Jim Boeheim	1087	103.9	3.3
John Thompson	835	78.3	3.3
Jim Calhoun	1121	103.2	3.2
Mike Montgomery	824	71.4	3.0

Furthermore, his sustained run of excellence from 1967-73 was the greatest 7-year period of dominance in the Tourney era:

Coach	Start	Finish	7yrWAE
John Wooden	1967	1973	52.3
Jerry Tarkanian	1985	1991	48.1
Mike Krzyzewski	1996	2002	47.1
Adolph Rupp	1946	1952	47.0
John Wooden	1964	1970	46.9
Jerry Tarkanian	1986	1992	46.6
Mike Krzyzewski	1998	2004	46.2
Roy Williams	2002	2008	46.0
Rick Pitino	1991	1997	45.7
Mike Krzyzewski	1997	2003	45.7
John Wooden	1963	1969	45.2
Ben Howland	2002	2008	45.1
Adolph Rupp	1945	1951	45.1
John Wooden	1966	1972	44.4
John Wooden	1969	1975	43.7
Jerry Tarkanian	1982	1988	43.6
Jerry Tarkanian	1983	1989	43.6
Roy Williams	2003	2009	43.5
Mike Krzyzewski	1986	1992	43.4
John Wooden	1968	1974	43.2
Jerry Tarkanian	1971	1977	43.1
John Calipari	2002	2008	42.7
Jerry Tarkanian	1984	1990	42.5
Mike Krzyzewski	1995	2001	42.4
Roy Williams	1992	1998	42.2
Adolph Rupp	1944	1950	42.2
Roy Williams	2001	2007	42.2
Rick Pitino	1990	1996	42.1
John Calipari	1990	1996	42.0
John Wooden	1965	1971	41.8
Adolph Rupp	1943	1949	41.8
Billy Tubbs	1982	1988	41.2
Mike Krzyzewski	1999	2005	41.1
Lute Olson	1988	1994	41.1
Mike Krzyzewski	1994	2000	40.9
Everett Case	1947	1953	40.8
Dean Smith	1981	1987	40.7
John Calipari	2003	2009	40.7
Abe Lemons	1972	1978	40.4
Roy Williams	1996	2002	40.3

Truly, basketball lost one of the giants of the game this week, and he will be sorely missed. RIP Coach Wooden.

This entry was posted on Saturday, June 5th, 2010 at 4:44 pm and is filed under Analysis, History, NCAA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

10 Responses to “CBB: R.I.P. John Wooden (1910-2010)”

Scott Says:
June 5th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
So much is often forgotten as to how great of a player he was. He was the first 3 time consensus All American and the Player of the Year in 1932. Wikipedia reports he was the 1933 National Basketball League Scoring Champion and I believe he was second in 1938 and 1939 in the new upstart NBL. He was nicknamed "The Indiana Rubber Man" for his hard-nosed defense and "suicidal dives on the hardcourt." He was regarded as a great ball handler and passer and his record for consecutive free throws made in competition still stands on all levels (134 or 138, despite "only" shooting 70% in college). His college teams went 15-2, 13-2 and 17-1 in his 3 years and he missed all losses in 1930 and 1932 (I don't know about 1931.)

Additionally, although I can't confirm if I read this correctly since, but a few years ago (maybe 2005) at the basketball hall of fame, I saw some statistics in a book for what I think was his college days at Purdue. His scoring numbers were consistent with what I knew them to be for those years (low double digits), but amazingly, he also averaged around 7 assists and shot slightly over 47% from the field. These numbers may not seem great, but considering his team scored 40 and allowed 25, this is astounding if it is true. (I haven't been able to find the book or any other mention of these statistics online. I also have seen only a handful of statistics involving FG% and Assists before the NBA, which makes it more questionable.) Only 1 person averaged over 2.5 assists per game in either 1946 or 1947 and only 2 shot over 35% from the field. In the least he dominated his era, like only a handful of players have. At most, he is in the discussion of being the most dominating and incredible players ever (subject to the credibility of some of these statistics).
Jeremiah Says:
June 6th, 2010 at 9:46 am
I'd be curious to see if there was less parity at some times in college basketball history than others. UCLA's achievements from 1967-73 feel unrepeatable today. I would think that has something to do with early entry - no team could keep Kareem or Bill Walton for more than a year now - but that's just speculation.
Scott Says:
June 6th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
I'm sure it was easier with fewer games in the tournament, but it is interesting to note that, upon inspection, only UCLA and Kentucky made multiple championships from 1964 to 1975. (Kentucky lost to Texas Western in 1966 and UCLA in 1975. UCLA won 10 times in these years.) The past 12 years: Duke (3), Florida (3), Michigan St (2), UConn (2), UNC (2) and Kansas (2). I think a lot of it had to do with luck really. He probably won a few more than his team would have won with normal luck and was probably lucky to have 2 of the greatest college players of all time for 6 years and 5 championships. Of course he was definitely a great coach and extremely smart (I think he graduated 19th in his college class of 4500), but its hard to even define what a "good college coach" is. Recruiter? Strategist? Mentor?...So much other possible criteria. Wooden clearly is up there in many of these aspects. Another stat that might exaggerate how dominate he was, but is interesting nonetheless: He won 7 Iba COY awards no one else has more than 2.
Keith Ellis Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:30 am
Scott's stat showing Wooden shooting 47% in the late Twenties/early Thirties is interesting. About every pro boxscore I've seen from those days has both teams shooting in the 20% to 30% range. Most of the time FG% was not kept in pro nor high school games, which had more money backing them than the colleges did.

As a player at Indiana's three levels -- schoolboy, college, pro -- Wooden Top Fives along with DeJernett, Big O, McGinnis & Bird. His greatest accomplishment was starring for the boys' State tournament champion in 1927, between losing the Finals of '26 & '28. Biggest regret may've been failing to coach South Bend Central to the title in '41, when the integrated Washington Hatchets won instead.
jeremy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
couple things popped to mind.

1) tournament size - in 1948-1949 (wooden's first year at ucla), the NCAA field was only 8 teams. When he retired after 1974-1975, the field had expanded to 32. Wooden's first title year, the field was 25, so his teams either had to beat 4 or 5 teams each year throughout the 10 titles. Not sure if Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the 1st round would have made a difference.

2) regions - back then, regionals were more aptly named. In their first title year, the West region consisted of UCLA, San Francisco, Seattle, Oregon State, Utah State and Arizona State. In 1973 (title #9), the West region was UCLA, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Long Beach State, Weber State and San Francisco. Unlike today when you balance the bracket (for instance Syracuse this year being #1 in the west), UCLA did benefit from being on the West coast. This is not to take anything away from them, but most years they had weaker opponents to get through than the teams in the other 3 regions. They still dominated most years and would have probably done as well, but I imagine it would have been at least a little more difficult if teams were shipped like they are today.

3) tournament selection - prior to 1975, only 1 team per conference was allowed in the tournament. this rule of course got changed due to a # of incidents in the early 70s including the classic NC State-Maryland battles, NC State beating a perfect South Carolina (ACC team at the time) to take the berth, and USC being #3(?) nationally and their only 2 losses all season were to #1 UCLA. I know a number of conferences back then gave their berths to their regular season champions, but I don't know off-hand when the phenomonen of giving your berth to your tournament winner started.

Not sure if they have been done here or somewhere else on the net, but it would be interesting to see...
1) what the quality of teams in the West regions were back when UCLA was mowing the field and going to the final four in 12 of 13 years.
2) what the overall quality of the ncaa tournaments were prior to 1975 when only 1 team was allowed in per conference. I imagine that the overall quality is better due to allowing the 2nd-6th teams from the BCS conferences far outweigh the occasional fluke #7 or #8 seed that wins their conference. No idea how to measure this one off the top of my head.
3) how UCLA would have fared if the NCAA shipped teams cross country to even out the brackets like they do nowadays.
downpuppy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
I've only seen one obit mention Sam Gilbert, the real difference maker for UCLA.
Neil Paine Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 12:47 am
IMO, it would hardly have been appropriate in an elegiac piece like this to mention the Gilbert rumors. What was Gilbert's role in UCLA's dynasty, and how much did Wooden know? I have no idea. Balzac once said that "behind every great fortune lies a great crime"; maybe in the NCAA, behind every great dynasty lies a great crime as well. Or maybe Wooden was just that good of a coach and recruiter. I can only work with the data, and the data says Wooden is one of the best ever... The rest is merely rumor, innuendo, and supposition.
downpuppy Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
I guess I have more of a Dan Jenkins take on things. The kids earn their keep, and have nothing to be ashamed of. There's no justification for paying the coach millions & the kids nothing, so it doesn't really happen.

My question is, is how the competitive situation changes through the years as different enforcement & payment regimes pass through. Did UCLA have a Yankees type advantage in the 1960s? Is the current higher level of parity financial?

With pro leagues, it's not too tough to follow the influence of money on competitive balance. With college sports, it's only when a coach gets on the bad side of the NCAA that anything comes out. A few months ago, there was some looking at coaches that "changed the culture of a program". It occurred to me later, that that probably meant they arranged funding to support continuing recruitment.

It would be fun if somebody asks John Wall how much he was paid at Kentucky.
Keith Ellis Says:
June 9th, 2010 at 9:17 am
"I don't know off-hand when the phenomonen of giving your berth to your tournament winner started..."

Ironically, Johnny Wooden had something to do with it. When Wooden, DeJernett, & other early stars of Hoosier Hysteria were grabbing national headlines via their annual March Madness tournament (whose Regionals, Sweet Sixteens, and Final Fours the NCAA copied later on), they often competed against the powerful FrankFort Hot Dogs coached by one Everett Case. The CaseMen won four titles of their own during the Twenties and Thirties. After the War Everett Case was recruited to coach at North Carolina State. There he lobbied successfully for the ACC to adopt an Indiana-style tournament, on the basis of the excitement (& profits) such tourneys turn.

For years the ACC was the only conference that sent its "tourney winner" to the NCAAs. In 1974 the NCAA experimented with something called the CCC, whose first & only championship Bobby Knight's Hoosiers won & Knight called a "loser's tourney," respecting even the NIT-option more than the CCC. The tag of a "loser's tourney" eventually stuck to New York's NIT itself, & the Indianapolis-based NCAA bought out NY's NIT to put it out of its misery.
Jim Boatner Says:
March 8th, 2011 at 8:31 am
"I don't know off-hand when the phenomonen of giving your berth to your tournament winner started..."

Actually, the old Southern Conference was the first to award their championship to an end of season tourney winner - Coach Case at NCSU and other ACC schools were in the SC in 40s and early 50s. The ACC was not formed until '53 and became the second - ACC excellence and excitement in 70s and 80s led to other conferences doing the same thing. I don't think Coach Wooden liked it at the time - but that may have been because UCLA always won the PAC 10 regular season title. But it does all go back to the Indiana tournament tradition, through Everett Case at NC State.

« When Ray Allen Plays 30 Minutes…

Ray Allen’s Hot Streak »