Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #5 Atlanta
Posted by Neil Paine on April 29, 2011
Chicago Bulls
62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)
PTS/G: 98.6 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.3 (2nd of 30)
SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)
Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Derrick Rose | 81 | 3026 | 5.39 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.208 | 23.5 |
| SG | Keith Bogans | 82 | 1461 | -0.90 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.118 | 9.0 |
| SF | Luol Deng | 82 | 3208 | 1.69 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.149 | 15.5 |
| PF | Carlos Boozer | 59 | 1882 | 2.76 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.149 | 18.8 |
| C | Joakim Noah | 48 | 1576 | 3.77 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.205 | 18.8 |
| SG | Ronnie Brewer | 81 | 1781 | 1.59 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.147 | 13.8 |
| PF | Taj Gibson | 80 | 1742 | -0.72 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.143 | 14.3 |
| SF | Kyle Korver | 82 | 1649 | 0.55 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 0.149 | 13.0 |
| PG | C.J. Watson | 82 | 1091 | -0.69 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.093 | 12.8 |
| C | Omer Asik | 82 | 989 | -1.49 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 0.130 | 11.8 |
| PF/C | Kurt Thomas | 52 | 1178 | 0.54 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 0.131 | 10.0 |
| SG | Rasual Butler | 47 | 770 | -7.18 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -0.009 | 6.2 |
| PG | Jannero Pargo | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Atlanta Hawks
44-38, 3rd in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Larry Drew (44-38)
PTS/G: 95.0 (26th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.8 (9th of 30)
SRS: -1.10 (18th of 30) ▪ Pace: 89.3 (27th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.1 (20th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.0 (13th of 30)
Expected W-L: 39-43 (17th of 30)
Arena: Philips Arena ▪ Attendance: 641,596 (22nd of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Kirk Hinrich | 72 | 2157 | -0.49 | -3.5 | -0.8 | 0.068 | 12.3 |
| SG | Joe Johnson | 72 | 2554 | 0.18 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.080 | 16.4 |
| SF | Josh Smith | 77 | 2645 | 3.51 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 0.116 | 19.2 |
| PF | Al Horford | 77 | 2704 | 3.61 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.179 | 20.7 |
| C | Jason Collins | 49 | 593 | -4.92 | 2.7 | -1.5 | 0.049 | 5.4 |
| SG | Jamal Crawford | 76 | 2297 | -1.25 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.071 | 14.2 |
| SF | Marvin Williams | 65 | 1865 | -1.49 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.102 | 13.5 |
| PG | Jeff Teague | 70 | 963 | -0.65 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.083 | 14.6 |
| SF | Damien Wilkins | 52 | 676 | -1.50 | -1.4 | -3.7 | 0.104 | 11.4 |
| PF | Josh Powell | 54 | 653 | -8.20 | -1.7 | -5.1 | -0.012 | 8.0 |
| C | Hilton Armstrong | 53 | 488 | -2.79 | -1.0 | -2.2 | 0.045 | 8.8 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | CHI | ATL | Prob | Games | CHI | ATL | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 35.4% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 41.7% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 28.8% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 36.3% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 17.3% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13.3% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 11.9% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6.5% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.8% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 2.6% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.9% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.4% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.1% | |
| CHI | 93.3% | CHI | 97.7% | |||||
| ATL | 6.7% | ATL | 2.3% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 29th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Truth.
April 29th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
If Kirk can play effectively, 4-1 Bulls. If not, 4-0 Bulls.
April 29th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
@Jason J, I completely agree, the Hawks have no chance. Who really expected Orlando to win Game 6 on the road? The Hawks won a series of two "not ready for prime time teams", I think the Bulls will feast on them.
That being said, the Hawks did avenge their playoff sweep at the hands of the Magic last year. They became the 9th team in the last 30 years win a series against the team who swept them in the playoffs the previous season.
http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/sweep-revenge-how-teams-bounce-back.html
May 1st, 2011 at 7:32 am
I hope Atlanta starts playoff On/Off hero Jason Collins again, at least when Boozer is healthy. I just don't see Smith defending Boozer or Noah
May 2nd, 2011 at 7:52 am
Neil, if you're not super-busy you could look at how many teams with negative SRS made it to the second round of the playoffs, and what happened to them. Should be interesting. I would bet it is less than a handful of teams
May 3rd, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Boy was I wrong! Kudos to Joe Johnson and the Hawks big brigade.
May 4th, 2011 at 7:32 pm
On Chicago's stat line you need the pts/g and opp pts/g
May 4th, 2011 at 7:48 pm
#7 - Thanks, good catch.