12 Responses to “Ten Thousand 2011 NCAA Tournaments”

1. DSMok1 Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 8:51 am

   I'll put a post up on this. The correct way to pick in a *large* group would be to pick based on the highest value of ActualOdds+(ActualOdds-ChosenbyGroupOdds). So if Pitt wins 7% of the time, but is picked only 3% of the time by the group, the value of that choice to you would be .07+(.07-.03)=.11. Compare that value to all of the options....

   Duke would have been the pick last year.

   Incidentally, are you guys here at BBRef running a bracket challenge like last year? I *should* have won it last year, I maintain, only I found a flaw in my math right after my picks were locked in. My revised methodology would have won it by quite a ways. :-) (Don't all of us stat guys say that?)

2. Neil Paine Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 8:58 am

   Not sure, we'll have to see if Doug runs a public P-F-R pool and then probably piggyback off of that.

3. P Middy Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 11:05 am

   I like to call it Lost Wages March Sadness, because so many watchable NBA games are not being shown in favor of college "basketball."

4. AHL Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 11:39 am

   The interesting outlier here is Texas, who's the 4 see in in Duke's bracket, yet they come out winning the championship more often than expected.

   Probably because of my sad sack Arizona, who'll probably be 5-12'd this year =(

5. taylor Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 2:35 pm

   DSMok1,

   Could you send me your bracket when you complete it by chance? Thanks

6. MikeN Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 6:02 pm

   How is this different than just picking the top ratings?

7. Neil Paine Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 6:11 pm

   In terms of the likeliest picks, it isn't. But the frequency table tells you how often you can expect each outcome to happen. Like AHL noticed in #4, somebody like Texas is a good value pick because they won the title in more sims than you'd expect from their seeding. Just eyeballing the ratings and making picks that way, you wouldn't pick up on something like that.

8. dsong Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 6:21 pm

   Ohio St. as the favorite?

   I would lean toward Rock Chalk Nation if I was a betting man. Duke would be my second choice.

9. Ian Says:
   March 14th, 2011 at 8:58 pm

   I'm all for another pool!

10. Matt Says:
    March 15th, 2011 at 9:14 am

    According to Pomeroy, Texas should have been a 1 seed, so that's why they're winning a lot in the sim.

    Also, although Florida is highly overseeded, they are in a very weak bracket. The took BYU to overtime last year in the tourney and now the teams are essentially the same except BYU is missing Davies, so Florida may actually be a value pick there to get to the elite 8.

11. MikeN Says:
    March 17th, 2011 at 2:22 am

    Texas is a 4 seed rated #4 overall, so I would expect them to be a good pick.

12. Andrew Says:
    March 19th, 2011 at 12:09 am

    How is the required number of simulations for a MC sim. determined? I've tried to find info on this but have struggled to find anything. Obviously if you run the 10,000 simulations again and the percentages change significantly it would be an insufficient number, but could someone point me to a method that doesn't involve trial and error? Any help much appreciated.