Posted by Neil Paine on September 16, 2009
As part of the process required to create a projection system for Win Shares similar to that which we employed for Statistical +/-, I have to create tables with four-year WS trends for each player in NBA history. So, since I'm clearly not going to get the projections done today, I figured I'd hold you […]
Posted in Data Dump, Season Preview, Win Shares | Comments Off on 4-Year WS trends For 2009-10 Players
Posted by Neil Paine on September 14, 2009
Last week, we took a very preliminary look at what our Statistical Plus/Minus projection system saw in the cards for the 2009-10 NBA Season. To project minutes played, we used a very simplistic regression equation that took a weighted average of a player's minutes over the past three seasons and regressed it heavily to the […]
Posted in Projections, Season Preview, Statgeekery, Statistical +/- | 11 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on September 9, 2009
Since everyone seems to be jumping on the projection bandwagon right now, here are the preliminary projected standings for 2010 (I'll explain the process at the bottom):
Posted in Projections, Season Preview, Statgeekery, Statistical +/- | 24 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on August 26, 2009
Today's post topic comes courtesy of BBR reader Jared Rasmussen, who e-mailed us with this yesterday: "Recently, especially this off-season, a lot of NBA role-players have been touring overseas. While many players have had overseas stints at some point in their careers, especially those who were drafted pre-D-League, some of the recent names are fairly […]
Posted in BBR Mailbag, Win Shares | 3 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on August 7, 2009
A quick post/data dump for Friday... When I was putting together some of the Win Shares-based lists we've been posting recently, I wondered how heavily each team relied on their frontcourt and backcourt, and whether or not that correlated to success. So, first I added up WS by a team's guards and their non-guards, making […]
Posted in Analysis, History, Win Shares | 9 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on August 3, 2009
Seems like I've been running lots of Bill Simmons-related links recently for some reason... This one comes courtesy of Gravity and Levity (a great intellectual blog about science in general, and physics specifically, in case you want to check out some of the other posts there), which makes a really fascinating connection between Braess’s Paradox […]
Posted in Layups | 11 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on June 4, 2009
Sometimes I mark the passage of time in my life by the sporting events that happened in a given year. Is that weird? Maybe so. But still, I'm prone to associating particular years with certain happenings from the world of sports -- for instance, I hear 1997, I think of Tiger Woods' historic victory at […]
Posted in History, Just For Fun, No Math Required, Playoffs | 7 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on May 14, 2009
Congrats are in order to Danny Granger this week for winning the NBA's Most Improved Player Award for the 2008-09 season. Now, this award is often decried by statheads for its insistence on identifying players who haven't really improved at all but have just seen more playing time, but Granger actually did make a leap […]
Posted in Analysis, Statistical +/- | 7 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on April 28, 2009
Last week, I promised that we'd see how well our new statistical +/- formula "retrodicted" this season, and today seems like a good time to follow through on that.
Posted in Analysis, Projections, Statistical +/- | 2 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on April 21, 2009
We've used statistical plus-minus a lot on this blog in the past, and I generally like it, because I think it's an "organic" way of deriving a linear-weights-style box score-based formula from actual, real-life data. That's also why I still have faith in the pure adjusted plus-minus methodology, despite its occasionally bizarre and/or counter-intuitive results. […]
Posted in Analysis, Statistical +/- | 10 Comments »
