BBR Rankings: 2010-02-05
Posted by Neil Paine on February 5, 2010
Rising: Thunder (W-DEN, W-GSW, W-ATL, W-@NOH), Magic (W-ATL, W-@DET, W-MIL)
Falling: Raptors (W-IND, L-@IND, W-NJN), Grizzlies (L-@SAS, L-NOH, W-LAL, L-@CLE)
(Want to know how the BBR Rankings are calculated? Read this first... "MLE" = Maximum Likelihood Estimate.)
| Rank | Prev | Team | W | L | WPct | SOSRk | Week | MLE | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 40 | 11 | 0.784 | 26 | 4-0 | 1.50115 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | 38 | 12 | 0.760 | 21 | 3-1 | 1.32089 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | Orlando Magic | 33 | 16 | 0.673 | 23 | 3-0 | 0.86149 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | Dallas Mavericks | 31 | 18 | 0.633 | 6 | 1-2 | 0.76969 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | Atlanta Hawks | 31 | 17 | 0.646 | 12 | 2-2 | 0.80775 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | Boston Celtics | 31 | 16 | 0.660 | 29 | 2-2 | 0.75130 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | Denver Nuggets | 33 | 16 | 0.673 | 28 | 2-2 | 0.74848 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | Utah Jazz | 30 | 18 | 0.625 | 4 | 3-0 | 0.67243 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | Phoenix Suns | 30 | 21 | 0.588 | 14 | 3-0 | 0.57664 | 9 |
| 10 | 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 28 | 21 | 0.571 | 5 | 4-0 | 0.46056 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | Houston Rockets | 26 | 22 | 0.542 | 1 | 2-1 | 0.37998 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | Portland Trail Blazers | 30 | 22 | 0.577 | 13 | 3-2 | 0.42492 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | Memphis Grizzlies | 26 | 22 | 0.542 | 8 | 1-3 | 0.31780 | 14 |
| 14 | 15 | San Antonio Spurs | 28 | 20 | 0.583 | 18 | 2-2 | 0.31782 | 13 |
| 15 | 12 | Toronto Raptors | 27 | 23 | 0.540 | 17 | 2-1 | 0.29101 | 15 |
| 16 | 19 | Charlotte Bobcats | 24 | 24 | 0.500 | 7 | 2-2 | 0.09106 | 17 |
| 17 | 16 | New Orleans Hornets | 26 | 23 | 0.531 | 25 | 1-3 | 0.14633 | 16 |
| 18 | 17 | Chicago Bulls | 23 | 24 | 0.489 | 11 | 1-2 | 0.03201 | 19 |
| 19 | 18 | Miami Heat | 24 | 26 | 0.480 | 2 | 1-4 | 0.05575 | 18 |
| 20 | 21 | Milwaukee Bucks | 21 | 26 | 0.447 | 19 | 2-1 | -0.20985 | 20 |
| 21 | 20 | Los Angeles Clippers | 21 | 28 | 0.429 | 20 | 1-3 | -0.27347 | 21 |
| 22 | 22 | Sacramento Kings | 16 | 32 | 0.333 | 3 | 0-4 | -0.73042 | 23 |
| 23 | 23 | New York Knicks | 19 | 29 | 0.396 | 30 | 1-2 | -0.68840 | 22 |
| 24 | 24 | Detroit Pistons | 16 | 31 | 0.340 | 9 | 1-2 | -0.73972 | 24 |
| 25 | 26 | Philadelphia 76ers | 17 | 31 | 0.354 | 27 | 2-1 | -0.82223 | 26 |
| 26 | 25 | Indiana Pacers | 17 | 32 | 0.347 | 24 | 1-2 | -0.81967 | 25 |
| 27 | 27 | Washington Wizards | 16 | 32 | 0.333 | 22 | 2-2 | -0.90886 | 27 |
| 28 | 28 | Golden State Warriors | 13 | 35 | 0.271 | 15 | 0-4 | -1.09874 | 28 |
| 29 | 29 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 11 | 38 | 0.224 | 10 | 2-0 | -1.45208 | 29 |
| 30 | 30 | New Jersey Nets | 4 | 44 | 0.083 | 16 | 0-4 | -2.78364 | 30 |
| Home-Court Advantage | 0.60964 |
February 5th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
An alternative ranking system: SRS of efficiencies (compiled off 4-factor box scores on this site--thanks!)
.
Home Court Advantage: 3.54
.
Team Margin/100 Poss
CLE 7.51
UTA 6.75
LAL 6.50
DEN 5.99
ATL 5.41
ORL 5.25
OKC 4.72
SAS 4.09
PHO 3.61
POR 3.49
BOS 3.05
DAL 1.08
HOU 0.75
TOR 0.03
MEM -0.07
MIA -0.49
MIL -0.59
NOH -1.32
CHA -1.55
CHI -2.02
SAC -3.12
LAC -3.31
GSW -3.79
PHI -4.25
DET -4.75
IND -4.78
NYK -5.42
WAS -5.61
MIN -7.06
NJN -12.18
.
As a side note: why, when I calculate the league average efficiency (by averaging the 4 factor box scores) do I come up with a different value than that shown in the league-wide season box score?
February 5th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Oh, that's because our game-by-game team stats don't have "Team Turnovers" (shot clock/5-second inbound/8 second halfcourt violations/etc.) included in the team total.
As an aside, for your SRS, did you base it on the average of game-by-game efficiency differentials?
February 5th, 2010 at 11:02 pm
Basically, I took the whole season and ran Solver to minimize the difference between the actual efficiency margins (from the box scores) and the "predicted" margin for each game (adjusted for home/away). Since this is SRS, it was not least squares (I think that would overweight blowouts unnecessarily anyway) but simply minimizing the sum of the differences.
It gives a lot of useful information, I think... I've run it for the last 20 seasons, too. I like such a method as the purest form of an adjusted efficiency differential.