Playoff Probabilities Report

Introduction

The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilties are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 7500 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Sample Report

Projected Standings Table
														First Round Seed								Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	1-6	7	8	9	10	Out	Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	51.0	31.0	.622	0.10	-0.85	4.71	31-20	20-11	61-21	40-42	99.6%	70.8%	44.6	23.8	14.1	8.6	4.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	98.0	1.3	0.5	0.2			30.5%	11.3%
2	Miami Heat	50.5	31.5	.616	-0.42	-0.08	3.44	32-19	19-12	59-23	41-41	99.3%	97.1%	31.1	29.9	18.0	10.0	5.6	2.9	1.3	0.6	97.5	1.6	0.7	0.3			18.5%	5.7%
3	Chicago Bulls	48.1	33.9	.587	-0.59	0.53	1.23	31-18	17-16	58-24	36-46	95.4%	19.2%	8.4	14.1	17.1	17.3	16.3	11.8	6.3	4.0	85.0	8.0	4.4	1.8	0.5	0.2	6.6%	1.3%
4	Philadelphia 76ers	48.0	34.0	.585	-0.65	0.70	1.71	31-19	17-15	58-24	36-46	94.6%	53.2%	8.0	13.8	18.4	16.8	14.2	12.1	6.8	4.4	83.4	8.5	5.0	2.2	0.7	0.3	8.2%	1.7%
5	Milwaukee Bucks	47.2	34.8	.575	-0.70	0.73	2.23	31-21	16-14	57-25	37-45	90.6%	10.1%	3.8	9.1	13.7	17.5	17.1	13.6	9.5	6.4	74.7	10.8	7.6	4.9	1.7	0.3	9.2%	2.0%
6	Brooklyn Nets	46.2	35.8	.564	-0.47	0.41	1.34	29-20	17-16	57-25	35-47	86.3%	30.1%	2.8	5.6	10.4	13.3	15.1	17.6	12.4	9.2	64.8	14.6	10.7	7.0	2.3	0.7	6.1%	1.3%
7	Boston Celtics	44.9	37.1	.548	-0.05	-0.56	3.37	27-25	18-12	53-29	35-47	79.9%	10.8%	0.9	2.1	4.9	8.3	12.9	16.2	19.7	14.9	45.3	19.3	15.9	11.7	5.7	2.2	12.7%	3.5%
8	Toronto Raptors	43.6	38.4	.531	0.42	-0.45	1.36	25-23	19-15	54-28	34-48	62.1%	5.8%	0.2	0.9	1.9	4.5	7.0	10.7	18.5	18.4	25.2	15.5	21.4	20.7	11.7	5.5	4.8%	1.0%

9	Charlotte Hornets	43.3	38.7	.529	-0.17	0.33	-0.30	28-23	15-16	53-29	34-48	54.9%	2.6%	0.2	0.6	1.4	3.4	6.2	9.7	15.6	17.7	21.5	14.6	20.5	22.5	14.5	6.6	2.0%	0.4%
10	Atlanta Hawks	40.4	41.6	.492	0.08	-0.18	0.36	24-26	16-16	51-31	31-51	24.1%	0.3%			0.1	0.4	1.1	2.3	6.5	13.7	3.9	4.5	9.2	16.7	27.9	37.8	1.1%	0.2%
11	New York Knicks	38.2	43.8	.466	-0.32	0.59	-0.86	24-27	14-17	48-34	28-54	7.6%	0.1%				0.1	0.1	0.3	1.4	5.8	0.4	0.8	2.5	6.5	18.8	71.1	0.2%
12	Washington Wizards	37.7	44.3	.460	0.19	-0.27	-2.28	23-26	15-18	48-34	28-54	5.6%						0.1	0.3	1.0	4.2	0.4	0.7	1.8	5.3	15.2	76.6	0.1%
13	Indiana Pacers	33.7	48.3	.411	0.55	-0.88	-1.32	19-33	15-15	42-40	25-57	0.2%									0.2				0.2	1.1	98.7
14	Detroit Pistons	20.6	61.4	.251	0.31	0.48	-8.98	12-37	9-24	32-50	12-70																100.0
15	Orlando Magic	20.3	61.7	.247	0.09	0.45	-7.75	11-40	9-22	31-51	13-69																100.0

Here are the column descriptions:

W and L are the average number of wins and losses, respectively, that the team had in the 1500 simulations.
Current is the team's curent W-L record.
Remain is the team's projected W-L record the remainder of the season.
Best is the team's best W-L record in the 1500 iterations.
Worst is the team's worst W-L record in the 1500 iterations.
Playoffs is the percentage of times the team made the playoffs in the 1500 iterations.
Division is the percentage of times the team won their division in the 1500 iterations.
Top Seed is the percentage of times the team was the top seed in their conference in the 1500 iterations.
Win Conf is the percentage of times the team won the conference playoffs in the 1500 iterations.
Win Finals is the percentage of times the team won the NBA Finals in the 1500 iterations.
Lottery is the percentage of time the team won the draft lottery in the 1500 iterations.

Playoff Probabilities Report

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