Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	58.3	21.7	.728	-1.90	-0.60	9.41	15-1	43-21	72-8	44-36	100.0%	100.0%	75.1	23.1	1.5	0.2						100.0							45.6%	24.0%
2	Boston Celtics	54.4	25.6	.680	-1.64	-0.67	8.10	12-3	42-23	68-12	40-40	100.0%	92.6%	23.9	63.7	9.9	2.3	0.2					100.0							32.1%	14.6%
3	New York Knicks	46.8	33.2	.586	-1.33	-0.68	4.39	8-6	39-27	61-19	31-49	99.4%	7.4%	0.5	6.8	39.6	39.4	8.5	3.0	1.2	0.5		97.8	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1		10.5%	3.2%
4	Orlando Magic	46.6	33.4	.583	-1.37	-0.98	3.29	9-6	38-27	61-19	32-48	99.5%	92.2%	0.5	6.4	43.8	35.3	8.4	3.3	1.4	0.5		97.6	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.1			8.5%	2.4%
5	Miami Heat	38.8	41.2	.485	-2.05	-0.37	-1.20	6-7	33-34	54-26	23-57	76.3%	6.9%		0.1	1.9	7.1	22.7	18.5	14.5	11.6		50.3	15.2	12.0	8.7	6.4	7.5		0.9%	0.1%
6	Milwaukee Bucks	38.3	41.7	.478	1.27	-0.98	-0.88	5-9	33-33	53-27	23-57	71.5%				1.3	5.5	18.2	17.9	15.3	13.3		42.9	15.3	13.2	10.5	7.9	10.2		0.8%	0.1%
7	Brooklyn Nets	37.8	42.2	.473	1.49	-0.87	-1.51	6-9	32-33	52-28	22-58	67.5%				0.9	4.5	15.7	17.2	15.8	13.6		38.2	16.4	13.8	11.0	8.8	11.7		0.7%	0.1%
8	Detroit Pistons	36.6	43.4	.457	-1.16	-0.26	-2.35	7-9	30-34	50-30	23-57	54.8%				0.4	2.0	10.0	13.3	14.2	14.9		25.7	14.2	14.8	13.8	12.1	19.4		0.5%

9	Indiana Pacers	36.0	44.0	.450	0.02	-0.50	-3.20	6-8	30-36	50-30	23-57	48.6%				0.4	2.0	8.4	11.5	13.1	13.2		22.3	13.2	13.9	13.8	12.4	24.4		0.3%
10	Chicago Bulls	34.1	45.9	.426	2.05	-0.98	-4.88	6-9	28-37	48-32	20-60	30.8%				0.1	0.8	3.3	5.9	8.9	11.7		10.2	9.0	11.5	13.6	15.2	40.6		0.1%
11	Charlotte Hornets	33.7	46.3	.422	0.70	-0.47	-4.23	5-9	29-37	49-31	18-62	28.2%	0.6%			0.1	0.6	3.0	5.5	8.5	10.5		9.2	7.7	9.9	12.5	15.2	45.6		0.1%
12	Atlanta Hawks	32.7	47.3	.408	-2.32	0.03	-5.72	7-8	26-39	47-33	20-60	18.1%	0.3%				0.3	1.5	3.3	5.7	7.3		5.1	5.2	7.4	10.9	13.7	57.8
13	Toronto Raptors	29.2	50.8	.365	0.37	-0.30	-5.77	3-12	26-39	45-35	16-64	4.5%						0.1	0.6	1.3	2.5		0.7	1.2	2.0	3.6	6.4	86.1
14	Philadelphia 76ers	26.1	53.9	.326	0.43	-0.15	-8.57	2-11	24-43	43-37	14-66	0.8%								0.2	0.5		0.1	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.7	96.9
15	Washington Wizards	22.3	57.7	.279	2.34	-0.63	-12.43	2-11	20-47	37-43	9-71	0.1%													0.1	0.1	0.2	99.8

Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	56.5	23.5	.707	0.85	-0.57	11.51	11-4	46-19	69-11	43-37	100.0%	98.9%	51.2	30.6	14.2	3.0	0.8	0.2	0.1			99.9							37.4%	23.8%
2	Golden State Warriors	54.9	25.1	.686	0.52	-0.21	10.06	10-3	45-22	70-10	40-40	99.9%	97.1%	33.1	35.1	22.7	6.2	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.1		99.6	0.3	0.1	0.1				23.4%	13.5%
3	Houston Rockets	53.0	27.0	.662	1.45	-0.08	9.32	10-5	43-22	66-14	39-41	99.7%	79.2%	13.9	27.0	37.7	13.5	4.8	1.8	0.8	0.3		98.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1			21.0%	11.4%
4	Dallas Mavericks	47.9	32.1	.599	0.17	-0.05	6.51	8-7	40-25	63-17	34-46	93.6%	14.1%	1.3	4.4	12.5	30.9	20.0	12.2	7.6	4.8		81.2	8.2	4.6	2.8	1.9	1.4		8.7%	3.7%
5	Memphis Grizzlies	45.7	34.3	.572	-1.26	0.60	5.14	8-7	38-27	59-21	32-48	84.3%	6.2%	0.3	1.5	5.8	17.5	20.2	17.2	12.9	8.9		62.5	12.6	9.8	6.7	4.3	4.1		4.9%	2.0%
6	Denver Nuggets	44.2	35.8	.553	0.78	-0.13	2.24	8-5	36-31	59-21	30-50	70.3%	1.0%	0.1	0.6	3.0	10.7	15.1	15.3	13.9	11.6		44.8	14.7	12.2	10.3	8.4	9.8		1.6%	0.5%
7	Los Angeles Clippers	42.8	37.2	.536	2.21	0.21	2.28	8-7	35-30	58-22	28-52	60.7%	1.5%	0.1	0.3	1.5	6.0	10.9	13.9	14.5	13.6		32.6	14.2	14.2	11.7	11.0	16.3		1.3%	0.4%
8	Los Angeles Lakers	42.2	37.8	.527	-1.51	0.56	-0.22	10-4	32-34	56-24	26-54	51.4%	1.0%	0.1	0.3	1.0	4.6	8.8	11.4	12.3	13.0		26.1	13.3	14.0	13.5	13.1	20.0		0.4%	0.1%

9	San Antonio Spurs	41.5	38.5	.518	1.98	-0.20	1.45	7-8	34-31	55-25	26-54	45.3%	0.6%		0.1	0.7	2.8	6.5	9.2	12.2	13.8		19.3	11.5	12.9	15.1	15.1	26.2		0.5%	0.2%
10	Minnesota Timberwolves	40.9	39.1	.511	-2.02	0.89	0.77	8-6	33-33	56-24	23-57	39.9%	0.1%		0.1	0.5	2.2	5.2	8.5	11.0	12.4		16.5	10.1	12.8	14.0	15.1	31.5		0.4%	0.1%
11	Phoenix Suns	39.7	40.3	.496	0.48	0.60	-1.05	9-6	31-34	53-27	25-55	27.4%	0.2%			0.2	1.5	3.2	5.2	7.1	10.2		10.2	7.1	9.6	12.8	15.4	44.9		0.1%
12	Sacramento Kings	39.5	40.5	.494	-3.06	0.91	0.07	8-7	32-33	53-27	25-55	27.5%	0.2%			0.1	1.2	2.7	4.6	7.5	11.3		8.7	7.1	9.5	12.8	15.0	47.0		0.3%	0.1%
13	Portland Trail Blazers	30.1	49.9	.376	-0.22	0.65	-7.08	6-8	24-42	45-35	17-63	0.1%									0.1				0.1	0.3	0.6	98.9
14	Utah Jazz	25.6	54.4	.320	2.05	0.42	-8.80	3-11	23-43	41-39	13-67																	100.0
15	New Orleans Pelicans	24.0	56.0	.300	1.09	1.05	-9.71	4-11	20-45	39-41	12-68																	100.0