Playoff Probabilities Report

Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round.

See more details about the results. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners.

Projected Standings

Projected Standings Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Eastern Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	62.7	19.3	.764	-1.42	-0.23	8.37	36-8	27-11	71-11	52-30	100.0%	100.0%	92.3	7.6	0.1							100.0							47.1%	19.1%
2	Boston Celtics	57.0	25.0	.695	-0.96	-0.89	7.84	31-14	26-11	66-16	46-36	100.0%	94.5%	7.7	86.6	5.5	0.3						100.0							38.3%	14.9%
3	New York Knicks	50.7	31.3	.618	-1.86	0.71	4.09	29-16	22-15	60-22	39-43	100.0%	5.5%	0.1	5.4	76.1	15.1	2.6	0.6	0.1			99.8	0.1						9.0%	1.8%
4	Milwaukee Bucks	46.0	35.0	.568	-1.41	0.51	2.14	25-17	21-18	57-24	33-48	99.1%			0.3	14.9	54.5	17.8	7.8	2.5	1.3		95.3	3.0	1.3	0.4				3.7%	0.6%
5	Indiana Pacers	43.3	38.7	.528	-0.58	-0.66	-0.67	24-20	19-19	53-29	31-51	92.1%				2.2	16.6	32.8	21.5	11.7	7.4		73.0	14.5	8.0	4.0	0.5			0.6%
6	Miami Heat	40.7	41.3	.496	-0.75	-0.37	-0.47	21-22	20-19	51-31	30-52	76.0%	39.2%			0.4	4.4	14.3	17.8	21.1	17.9		37.0	18.6	21.7	17.6	4.5	0.7		0.5%	0.1%
7	Detroit Pistons	40.9	41.1	.499	-0.50	0.14	-1.22	23-21	18-20	51-31	30-52	76.3%				0.4	4.0	12.3	20.3	22.8	16.5		37.1	25.3	19.6	14.0	3.4	0.6		0.3%
8	Orlando Magic	40.3	41.7	.492	-0.54	-0.77	-1.48	23-23	17-19	54-28	29-53	74.5%	39.0%			0.3	3.5	12.9	19.8	20.7	17.3		36.5	21.0	21.1	16.3	4.5	0.6		0.4%	0.1%

9	Atlanta Hawks	39.1	42.9	.477	-0.33	-0.39	-2.51	22-22	17-21	50-32	28-54	57.8%	21.8%			0.1	1.8	7.1	11.7	17.4	19.7		20.7	15.2	22.5	30.3	9.4	1.8		0.2%
10	Chicago Bulls	34.3	47.7	.418	-0.41	-0.23	-3.77	19-26	15-22	46-36	23-59	17.5%						0.1	0.5	3.2	13.7		0.5	2.1	4.9	13.2	48.1	31.3
11	Philadelphia 76ers	31.8	50.2	.388	0.01	-0.54	-4.67	16-27	16-23	43-39	21-61	5.9%								0.5	5.3		0.1	0.2	1.0	3.8	24.1	70.8
12	Toronto Raptors	28.4	53.6	.346	1.63	-2.41	-5.15	12-32	16-22	40-42	17-65	0.7%									0.7					0.3	3.9	95.8
13	Brooklyn Nets	27.0	55.0	.329	0.63	-0.53	-7.06	14-31	13-24	37-45	17-65	0.1%									0.1					0.1	1.1	98.9
14	Charlotte Hornets	26.3	55.7	.321	-0.12	-0.48	-5.68	11-30	15-26	37-45	16-66	0.1%									0.1					0.1	0.6	99.4
15	Washington Wizards	15.3	66.7	.186	1.97	-1.82	-12.50	6-37	9-30	25-57	7-75																	100.0

Table
														First Round Seed									Pre Play-In
Rk	Western Conference	W	L	W/L%	SOS	rSOS	SRS	Current	Remain	Best	Worst	Playoffs	Division	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8		1-6	7	8	9	10	Out		Win Conf	Win Finals
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	65.3	16.7	.797	0.06	-0.10	12.36	36-8	29-9	73-9	54-28	100.0%	100.0%	99.7	0.3								100.0							63.0%	47.5%
2	Houston Rockets	54.4	27.6	.663	0.66	0.23	6.52	29-14	25-14	65-17	42-40	99.9%	60.3%	0.2	49.9	28.9	16.1	3.7	0.8	0.2	0.1		99.7	0.2	0.1					10.5%	4.5%
3	Memphis Grizzlies	53.8	28.2	.656	-1.10	1.29	7.26	30-15	24-13	64-18	43-39	99.9%	39.4%	0.1	32.8	34.1	25.6	5.9	1.2	0.2	0.1		99.6	0.3	0.1					13.4%	6.7%
4	Denver Nuggets	52.5	29.5	.641	0.39	-0.33	5.78	28-16	25-13	63-19	41-41	99.7%			16.0	31.4	37.7	10.6	3.2	0.6	0.4		98.8	0.9	0.2	0.1				7.4%	3.2%
5	Los Angeles Clippers	47.2	34.8	.576	0.61	0.14	3.61	25-19	22-16	57-25	35-47	90.2%	72.6%		0.7	3.8	11.3	33.0	21.5	12.0	7.9		70.3	13.2	8.7	4.6	2.3	1.0		1.6%	0.4%
6	Dallas Mavericks	46.3	35.7	.565	0.72	-0.11	4.05	24-21	22-15	56-26	36-46	84.3%	0.3%		0.1	0.9	4.4	20.3	24.7	19.9	14.0		50.4	21.3	14.1	8.2	4.3	1.7		2.1%	0.5%
7	Minnesota Timberwolves	45.3	36.7	.553	0.92	-0.44	2.85	23-21	22-16	55-27	34-48	76.2%			0.1	0.6	2.8	14.2	23.1	20.5	15.0		40.7	22.1	15.9	10.6	7.1	3.6		1.1%	0.3%
8	Sacramento Kings	43.7	38.3	.533	-0.27	0.38	2.32	23-21	21-17	55-27	33-49	57.6%	13.1%		0.1	0.2	1.2	6.1	11.4	19.2	19.5		18.9	17.3	21.2	19.2	14.1	9.4		0.7%	0.2%

9	Los Angeles Lakers	42.0	39.0	.518	0.31	0.48	-1.14	24-18	18-21	54-27	32-49	36.4%	8.1%			0.1	0.5	3.3	6.4	11.3	14.9		10.3	11.2	17.6	21.1	21.0	18.9		0.1%
10	Golden State Warriors	42.3	39.7	.515	1.07	-0.20	1.11	22-22	20-18	54-28	27-55	38.1%	5.9%			0.1	0.5	2.7	6.3	11.5	17.0		9.6	10.0	14.8	20.8	22.5	22.4		0.2%	0.1%
11	San Antonio Spurs	38.9	42.1	.481	0.35	0.32	-0.31	20-22	19-20	51-30	27-54	12.3%						0.3	1.1	3.4	7.5		1.4	2.6	5.1	10.1	16.7	64.0
12	Phoenix Suns	38.1	43.9	.464	-0.72	1.78	-1.86	22-21	16-23	48-34	28-54	5.3%	0.3%					0.1	0.4	1.2	3.7		0.4	0.9	2.3	5.4	12.0	79.0
13	Portland Trail Blazers	29.1	52.9	.355	0.67	0.56	-6.77	17-28	12-25	39-43	20-62																	100.0
14	Utah Jazz	23.3	58.7	.285	0.55	1.00	-6.26	10-32	13-27	35-47	13-69																	100.0
15	New Orleans Pelicans	21.9	59.1	.271	0.51	1.38	-7.61	12-33	10-26	33-48	14-67																	100.0