BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 3, 2010)
Posted by Neil Paine on December 3, 2010
2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on December 2, 2010:
| Rank | Prev | Team | W | L | WPct | Offense | Rk | Prv | Defense | Rk | Prv | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Miami Heat | 12 | 8 | 0.600 | 4.07 | 4 | 4 | -4.52 | 6 | 7 | 8.59 |
| 2 | 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 15 | 3 | 0.833 | 4.78 | 3 | 3 | -3.34 | 9 | 9 | 8.12 |
| 3 | 4 | Boston Celtics | 14 | 4 | 0.778 | 2.27 | 9 | 9 | -5.60 | 3 | 3 | 7.86 |
| 4 | 5 | Orlando Magic | 14 | 4 | 0.778 | 1.50 | 12 | 16 | -5.91 | 2 | 2 | 7.42 |
| 5 | 7 | Dallas Mavericks | 14 | 4 | 0.778 | 1.54 | 11 | 12 | -5.17 | 4 | 8 | 6.71 |
| 6 | 11 | Utah Jazz | 15 | 5 | 0.750 | 3.02 | 8 | 15 | -2.71 | 10 | 10 | 5.73 |
| 7 | 1 | Los Angeles Lakers | 13 | 6 | 0.684 | 6.38 | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 16 | 13 | 5.72 |
| 8 | 6 | New Orleans Hornets | 13 | 5 | 0.722 | -0.47 | 16 | 14 | -6.03 | 1 | 4 | 5.56 |
| 9 | 8 | Denver Nuggets | 11 | 6 | 0.647 | 3.23 | 6 | 7 | -0.59 | 12 | 11 | 3.81 |
| 10 | 10 | Indiana Pacers | 9 | 8 | 0.529 | -1.51 | 18 | 18 | -4.12 | 8 | 6 | 2.61 |
| 11 | 9 | Chicago Bulls | 9 | 7 | 0.563 | -2.11 | 22 | 19 | -4.36 | 7 | 5 | 2.25 |
| 12 | 16 | Atlanta Hawks | 12 | 7 | 0.632 | 3.33 | 5 | 6 | 1.93 | 17 | 25 | 1.40 |
| 13 | 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 | 6 | 0.684 | 3.22 | 7 | 5 | 1.99 | 19 | 24 | 1.23 |
| 14 | 12 | Portland Trail Blazers | 8 | 10 | 0.444 | 0.59 | 14 | 10 | 0.63 | 15 | 14 | -0.04 |
| 15 | 15 | Phoenix Suns | 9 | 9 | 0.500 | 5.84 | 2 | 2 | 6.01 | 30 | 30 | -0.17 |
| 16 | 17 | Houston Rockets | 6 | 12 | 0.333 | 0.77 | 13 | 11 | 1.97 | 18 | 20 | -1.20 |
| 17 | 18 | Charlotte Bobcats | 6 | 12 | 0.333 | -0.88 | 17 | 17 | 0.42 | 14 | 16 | -1.29 |
| 18 | 20 | Memphis Grizzlies | 8 | 11 | 0.421 | -2.21 | 23 | 23 | -0.55 | 13 | 12 | -1.66 |
| 19 | 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | 6 | 12 | 0.333 | -6.60 | 30 | 30 | -4.82 | 5 | 1 | -1.78 |
| 20 | 19 | Toronto Raptors | 7 | 11 | 0.389 | 0.46 | 15 | 13 | 2.27 | 22 | 18 | -1.80 |
| 21 | 21 | New York Knickerbockers | 10 | 9 | 0.526 | 1.91 | 10 | 8 | 3.85 | 26 | 27 | -1.94 |
| 22 | 23 | Philadelphia 76ers | 5 | 13 | 0.278 | -3.24 | 26 | 26 | -0.93 | 11 | 15 | -2.31 |
| 23 | 22 | New Jersey Nets | 6 | 13 | 0.316 | -1.89 | 21 | 21 | 2.12 | 20 | 17 | -4.01 |
| 24 | 24 | Golden State Warriors | 8 | 11 | 0.421 | -1.83 | 19 | 20 | 3.94 | 27 | 23 | -5.77 |
| 25 | 25 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 7 | 11 | 0.389 | -4.26 | 27 | 24 | 2.19 | 21 | 19 | -6.45 |
| 26 | 27 | Los Angeles Clippers | 4 | 15 | 0.211 | -1.85 | 20 | 22 | 4.66 | 29 | 29 | -6.51 |
| 27 | 26 | Detroit Pistons | 6 | 13 | 0.316 | -3.20 | 25 | 25 | 3.32 | 24 | 22 | -6.53 |
| 28 | 29 | Washington Wizards | 5 | 12 | 0.294 | -3.08 | 24 | 27 | 4.62 | 28 | 28 | -7.69 |
| 29 | 28 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 4 | 14 | 0.222 | -6.04 | 29 | 29 | 2.75 | 23 | 21 | -8.79 |
| 30 | 30 | Sacramento Kings | 4 | 12 | 0.250 | -5.92 | 28 | 28 | 3.69 | 25 | 26 | -9.61 |
| HCA | 2.75 | |||||||||||
| LgAvg | 107.67 |
To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:35 am
I'm doing my part again and burning those numbers into a chart. Here it is.
http://bit.ly/eszmAo
It looks like Miami@Cleveland game had an huge impact on SRS.
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:43 am
I had a quick question or two about automated rankings.
Is there much difference between measuring teams with point margin and efficiency margin?
and, Do you take overtime periods into account? It seems a game that team A wins by 10 points isn't exactly 'as close' as a that team A wins by 10 in OT.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:19 pm
Oh no, here comes the Heat-Laker fanboy talk. I think before that starts, let's just drive home the point that Miami has a lot of talented players (obviously) who can make an impact on a game, but their .600 W% is evidence of close losses. They are blowing out opponents, then losing close ones. Intangibly, once they start to play together as a team, they may convert those into wins.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Re: #3 - Yeah, it's best to just brace for it.
Re: #2 - There's a difference, but it's pretty slight. Obviously, the further a team's pace gets away from 100 possessions/game, it's going to distort things more and more. The ratings on this page are based on efficiency differential, so pace is not a factor here, but the SRS you see throughout the site is based on raw point diff. Also, SRS doesn't account for OT. I'd say it's not much of a factor, though, except at the extremes: teams with extreme scoring differentials, teams with extreme pace factors, etc.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
#3 Well put I'd say. That's precisely the case.
Bosh has already improved somewhat, if James/Wade stay healthy they'll be fine. Hopefully they rack up more wins so they get some kind of homecourt.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:19 pm
Re: #3
Isn't their average margin of defeat against the "good teams" 4 points? It's not even like they're being smacked down by these teams, who are taking advantage early of Wade-James-Bosh still learning to play together.
December 3rd, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Pardon me - 6 point margin.
Bah, would love to see them on the other end of that one. But they have to talent to do so.
December 3rd, 2010 at 2:52 pm
I'm trying to keep track of how good (potentially) Miami is.
Before season: 70+ win team!
During preseason: No Wade but not looking that good actually.
Against Celtics first half: Ouch...
Against Celtics second half: Major comeback!
Losing to Celtics: They're lacking clutch...
After a couple of games: Good record and +11 spm, they're great!
And then losing two games in a row: Not that good it seems
Winning some games again: Not the best record, but they have the best spm! They just need more rebounds and clutch!
Losing three in a row: Okay, they're a bust. Forget it.
Winning three in a row and owning Cleveland: Hey, they're pretty good after all! Best SPM!
I've never had so much fun following a team!
December 3rd, 2010 at 3:13 pm
I really like these. Any chance at seeing the standard errors? :)
December 3rd, 2010 at 8:30 pm
You know, I actually set these up with Excel's solver, so no regression statistics to report (it basically solves it through brute-force iteration). It's so easy just to throw things together in a spreadsheet and use the solver.
December 4th, 2010 at 1:48 am
Great teams win blowouts and win close games.
Lakers are awful lately (today's result notwithstanding). Thank you for dropping the Lakers way down in the rankings, where they belong.
The class of the NBA so far has been San Antonio, Dallas, Boston, and Orlando. All of them figure to be legit contenders in the playoffs. The Lakers have some work to do before they can re-establish their position as one of the NBA's elite.
Thankfully it's a long season and I hope Lakers can get it together before the playoffs come around.
December 4th, 2010 at 1:52 am
I think the only thing I can conclude is that SPM might as well be called SPAM. Teams go up or down 5 spots based on a single 30-point blowout or defeat.
Just eyeballing these rankings, I'd say that the standard error of these numbers would be about 4 points.
December 4th, 2010 at 2:09 am
Dsong - pretty sure Bynum's return will solve the issues.
December 4th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Nobody's really making the connection, but the Spurs and Heat are similar teams on paper, so far...
The main difference is the pace and that the Heat are a better field defense team while the Spurs are better at offensive rebounding and not fouling. They're both juggernauts on offense, scoring from the line without turnovers. Even though the Heat are on the road in nine of fourteen December games (with three road Backtobacks), it's a soft month for both teams.
December 5th, 2010 at 10:28 am
Good win for Miami against Atlanta. LeBron with just 2 turnovers (and 2 total turnovers the last 2 games)---that will help the cause.
December 5th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
128 rating also helps.
James and Wade just need to stay healthy. Wade has little nagging injuries on his hand/wrist, don't go crazy with the minutes.
December 6th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Dsong, the wild shifts will stop once there is a big sample of games. So far, a 30 point game has an effect, but in April this will not be the case. A single 30 point win will not even move the a team unless they were really close to another.
December 9th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
Another quality win for the Heat, this time on the road VS the Jazz. Wade maybe is getting healthier and LeBron is cutting down on the TOs.