Best Games Against a Team You Played For Last Season (1987-2010)
Posted by Neil Paine on December 3, 2010
Facing his former team in Cleveland last night, LeBron James played like his vintage Cavs-era self, pouring in 38 points on 15-25 shooting with 8 assists in 30 minutes. That had me wondering, where did James' performance rank among historical instances of a player facing his ex-'mates the season after he left town?
So I ran a database query on all games since 1987 where a player was facing a team he had played for the previous season. And for the performance metric of choice, I want to introduce an adjusted plus/minus-based game score-style metric called "APMVAL". I basically ran an intercept-free regression between APM value over replacement (minutes * (APM + 6)) and raw box score totals, coming up with this formula:
APMVAL = 45*pts - 35*tsa + 18*reb + 30*ast + 72*stl + 41*blk - 75*tov - 39*pf
The best APMVAL game of the overall 1987-2010 period was Michael Jordan's 69-point outburst vs. Cleveland in 1990 (Kobe's 81-point game was 2nd). Here were the best games against a player's former team in the first season after his departure:
| Player | Date | Tm | Opp | MP | FG | FGA | 3P | 3A | FT | FTA | RB | AS | ST | BK | TO | PF | PTS | APMVAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Burton | 12/13/1994 | PHI | MIA | 43.0 | 12 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 1524 |
| Terrell Brandon | 3/19/2000 | MIN | MIL | 36.0 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1322 |
| Tony Delk | 1/2/2001 | PHO | SAC | 50.0 | 20 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 53 | 1200 |
| Tom Gugliotta | 1/5/1996 | MIN | GSW | 41.0 | 14 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 1156 |
| Charles Barkley | 3/3/1993 | PHO | PHI | 44.0 | 14 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1127 |
| LeBron James | 12/2/2010 | MIA | CLE | 30.0 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1100 |
| Devin Harris | 12/19/2008 | NJN | DAL | 38.6 | 14 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 1090 |
| Tom Chambers | 2/15/1989 | PHO | SEA | 38.0 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1084 |
| Shaquille O'Neal | 12/6/1996 | LAL | ORL | 41.0 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1066 |
| Vince Carter | 4/15/2005 | NJN | TOR | 43.0 | 15 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 1043 |
| Reggie Williams | 11/5/1991 | DEN | SAS | 30.0 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 1012 |
| Mario Elie | 3/7/1993 | POR | GSW | 31.0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1011 |
| Moses Malone | 1/29/1992 | MIL | ATL | 30.0 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1000 |
| Rasheed Wallace | 3/14/2005 | DET | ATL | 43.0 | 10 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 985 |
| Mookie Blaylock | 12/10/1999 | GSW | ATL | 41.0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 978 |
| Player | Date | Tm | Opp | MP | FG | FGA | 3P | 3A | FT | FTA | RB | AS | ST | BK | TO | PF | PTS | APMVAL |
| Nick Van Exel | 2/1/2003 | DAL | DEN | 26.0 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 976 |
| Jason Kidd | 3/15/1998 | PHO | DAL | 44.0 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 967 |
| Dikembe Mutombo | 3/9/2002 | PHI | ATL | 36.0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 966 |
| Micheal Williams | 4/9/1991 | IND | CHH | 32.0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 959 |
| Boris Diaw | 2/24/2009 | CHA | PHO | 41.4 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 958 |
| Jim Jackson | 1/28/2004 | HOU | SAC | 37.0 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 942 |
| Dudley Bradley | 4/23/1988 | NJN | MIL | 28.0 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 941 |
| Sleepy Floyd | 1/20/1989 | HOU | GSW | 40.0 | 12 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 941 |
| Sam Cassell | 4/8/2000 | MIL | NJN | 34.0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 934 |
| Danny Ainge | 12/27/1989 | SAC | BOS | 45.0 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 932 |
| Micheal Williams | 4/7/1993 | MIN | IND | 43.0 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 928 |
| Ruben Patterson | 1/8/2007 | MIL | DEN | 37.9 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 925 |
| John Lucas | 2/14/1987 | MIL | HOU | 26.0 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 921 |
| Rod Strickland | 3/26/1991 | SAS | NYK | 45.0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 914 |
| Armen Gilliam | 4/17/1992 | PHI | CHH | 41.0 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 908 |
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:36 am
MJ's game went to OT, so he played 50 minutes. Is that accounted for? I didn't think so, but wasn't sure.
Also, what about cases where a player took a year or 2 off? I seem to remember MJ as a Wizard having a big game against the Bulls.
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:44 am
Well, sure, LeBron had a pretty good game last night, but I don't think Miami will ever get over the beatdown Willie Burton laid on them on that historic night from December 13, 1994. Not a lot of people know this, but that's actually where the saying "Feel the Wrath of Willie Burton!" originated.
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:54 am
Minutes weren't accounted for, so per-minute, Kobe's 81 is #1. Also, this is only picking up games the season immediately after a player leaves, so it wouldn't capture MJ against Chicago 4 years after he left, etc. Although another follow-up post on the best games against a former team, period, would get that type of game.
As for Burton's revenge explosion... Has to be one of the most inexplicable 50-point games ever.
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:00 am
"Has to be one of the most inexplicable 50-point games ever."
Well don't keep us waiting now, you've got career numbers and game logs, show us!
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:08 am
Your replacement level seems pretty low. How did you arrive at that?
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:58 am
Re: #5 - I was flipping through Wayne Winston's Mathletics (highly recommended, btw) the other day, and in chapter 33 he tries to develop a fair salary system using APM value over replacement... The replacement value he settles on is -6 APM. He doesn't really give any justification for that, and I've seen it be anywhere between -3 and -7 depending on who you ask (SPM values are going to be more compressed, so its replacement value is probably closer to -3 to -4), but for a quick "game score" knockoff that actually correlates to APM, -6 is as good a choice as any.
Re: #4 - Haha, I guess I walked right into that one. I'll have to take a look at that at some point.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:00 pm
Thanks. Perhaps it's unfair, but the whole Durant thing dissuaded me from getting the Winston book. I'll check it out.
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:44 pm
Terrell Brandon and LeBron James were at the top in APMVAL per minute.
Pretty sweet. :]
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:51 pm
Can you do the same for midseason team changes?
December 3rd, 2010 at 12:53 pm
Re: #8 - Terrell Brandon is a longtime favorite of mine:
http://www.yaysports.com/nba/2006/01/the_timberwolves_inspire_poetr.html
(Yes, I was the reader who sent Brian the terrible, terrible rhymes.)
December 3rd, 2010 at 3:35 pm
ASPM has -3.5 for replacement level. APM, without ridge regression, has an inaccurately large spread.
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:42 pm
Willie Burton's best competition for most unlikely 50-point scorer is probably Walt Wesley, who went for 50 for the Cavaliers in their first season as an expansion team (1970-71), although this obviously predates the era of box score coverage on this site. Another unlikely name that pops up on the 50-point scorers' list is Tony Delk.
December 3rd, 2010 at 5:17 pm
The list would include some memorable games if it was possible to extend it further into the past. One classic was after Lenny Wilkens was traded from the Sonics to the Cavaliers in 1972. The Sonics, who had almost made the playoffs in 1972, promptly sank into a disastrous season while Wilkens continued his usual all-star play in Cleveland. The game when the Cavs came to visit the Sonics was an example of reverse LeBronomania: the Seattle Coliseum was sold out with fans booing the Sonics (for their terrible season, caused by a series of terrible roster moves, of which Wilkens' was the most prominent), and a huge standing ovation and continual cheering for the opposing team's point guard: Lenny Wilkens.
I don't recall Wilkens' stat line but needless to say the Cavs won easily.
December 3rd, 2010 at 8:13 pm
#10
lol that's awesome you would admit that.
December 7th, 2010 at 11:32 am
Willie Burton and Tony Delk had the 2 most unlikely 50-point outbursts that come to mind.
And both of them were vs their previous seasons' teams. Wow.