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The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Posted by Neil Paine on May 19, 2011

Bill Simmons and BS Report HoF guest Chuck Klosterman are discussing Larry Bird vs. Dirk Nowitzki in a podcast. Simmons says that the advanced stats place Dirk in the same category as Bird, perhaps even giving Dirk the edge, and he's not sure how he feels about this.

I wasn't sure how I felt, either, so I looked up the numbers. Here is a monster table with their advanced stats -- each has played exactly 13 years:

Plyr Yr Age Tm mp pts36 ts% trb36 sb36 ast36 tov36 ospm dspm spm tORtg %Pos tDRtg per ws ws48
Bird 1980 23 BOS 2955 19.0 53.8 9.3 2.1 4.0 2.9 2.97 2.52 5.50 111.2 24.9 100.1 20.5 11.2 0.182
Bird 1981 24 BOS 3239 17.6 52.8 9.0 2.3 4.6 2.9 2.26 2.91 5.17 108.7 24.1 100.2 19.9 10.8 0.160
Bird 1982 25 BOS 2923 19.6 55.7 9.3 2.3 5.0 2.8 4.28 3.08 7.36 114.0 25.2 99.7 22.6 12.5 0.205
Bird 1983 26 BOS 2982 19.8 56.1 9.2 2.3 4.9 2.6 5.01 2.53 7.54 117.4 24.8 100.4 24.1 14.0 0.225
Bird 1984 27 BOS 3028 20.8 55.2 8.7 2.3 5.7 2.6 5.18 2.35 7.53 115.0 26.6 100.4 24.2 13.6 0.215
Bird 1985 28 BOS 3161 23.6 58.5 8.6 2.3 5.5 2.5 6.72 1.80 8.51 118.4 27.8 102.1 26.5 15.7 0.238
Bird 1986 29 BOS 3113 22.1 58.0 8.4 2.3 5.8 2.8 6.63 2.53 9.17 117.3 27.6 99.4 25.6 15.8 0.244
Bird 1987 30 BOS 3005 23.1 61.2 7.6 2.3 6.3 2.7 7.50 1.89 9.39 119.7 27.4 102.6 26.4 15.2 0.243
Bird 1988 31 BOS 2965 25.8 60.8 8.0 2.1 5.3 2.4 8.54 0.89 9.43 120.4 28.8 105.3 27.8 15.0 0.243
Bird 1989 32 BOS 189 20.6 51.6 6.6 2.0 5.2 2.0 2.22 0.81 3.03 109.1 25.4 106.8 19.8 0.5 0.129
Bird 1990 33 BOS 2944 20.8 54.6 8.1 1.9 6.4 2.8 4.23 1.84 6.08 109.8 27.0 104.2 21.9 9.5 0.154
Bird 1991 34 BOS 2277 17.1 53.0 7.5 2.4 6.3 2.8 2.53 2.39 4.92 107.9 23.7 102.6 19.7 6.6 0.140
Bird 1992 35 BOS 1662 18.8 54.7 9.0 1.6 6.3 2.6 3.40 1.48 4.88 111.0 24.7 103.4 21.0 5.5 0.159
Tot 34443 20.8 56.4 8.6 2.2 5.5 2.7 5.03 2.20 7.24 114.7 26.1 101.6 23.5 145.8 0.203
Plyr Yr Age Tm mp pts36 ts% trb36 sb36 ast36 tov36 ospm dspm spm tORtg %Pos tDRtg per ws ws48
Dirk 1999 20 DAL 958 14.9 49.1 6.3 2.2 1.8 2.8 -2.42 -0.41 -2.82 99.3 21.8 109.6 12.8 0.8 0.040
Dirk 2000 21 DAL 2938 17.0 56.4 6.3 1.5 2.4 1.7 2.01 -0.48 1.52 115.6 20.5 110.5 17.5 8.1 0.132
Dirk 2001 22 DAL 3125 20.2 60.1 8.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 4.63 0.99 5.62 122.6 22.8 104.3 22.8 14.6 0.224
Dirk 2002 23 DAL 2891 21.9 59.9 9.3 2.0 2.3 1.8 5.49 0.99 6.48 122.8 24.3 106.8 24.1 13.4 0.222
Dirk 2003 24 DAL 3117 23.0 58.1 9.0 2.2 2.7 1.7 5.84 2.17 8.01 120.9 25.9 101.7 25.6 16.1 0.249
Dirk 2004 25 DAL 2915 20.4 56.1 8.1 2.4 2.5 1.6 3.87 0.89 4.76 121.0 23.0 108.6 22.5 11.5 0.190
Dirk 2005 26 DAL 3020 23.9 57.8 8.9 2.5 2.8 2.1 5.44 1.76 7.20 119.5 27.4 101.4 26.1 15.6 0.248
Dirk 2006 27 DAL 3089 26.2 58.9 8.9 1.7 2.7 1.9 7.69 -0.15 7.54 124.3 28.3 104.4 28.1 17.7 0.275
Dirk 2007 28 DAL 2821 25.0 60.5 9.0 1.5 3.4 2.2 6.89 0.36 7.26 123.7 27.9 102.6 27.6 16.3 0.278
Dirk 2008 29 DAL 2769 24.0 58.5 8.7 1.6 3.5 2.1 5.47 0.60 6.07 117.9 27.7 103.9 24.6 12.9 0.223
Dirk 2009 30 DAL 3050 24.8 56.4 8.1 1.5 2.3 1.9 4.24 -0.40 3.83 113.1 28.3 106.5 23.1 10.9 0.171
Dirk 2010 31 DAL 3039 23.8 57.8 7.3 1.7 2.6 1.7 4.08 0.06 4.14 115.6 27.0 105.0 22.9 12.3 0.194
Dirk 2011 32 DAL 2504 24.3 61.2 7.4 1.2 2.7 2.0 4.93 -0.04 4.89 118.4 26.2 104.8 23.4 11.1 0.213
Tot 36236 22.6 58.3 8.3 1.8 2.6 1.9 4.85 0.55 5.40 119.1 25.7 105.1 23.7 161.3 0.214

Key:

mp = Minutes played
pts36 = Points scored per 36 minutes (adjusted to Pace Factor of 91.6)
ts% = True Shooting %
trb36 = Total rebounds per 36 minutes (adjusted to Pace Factor of 91.6)
sb36 = Steals + blocks per 36 minutes (adjusted to Pace Factor of 91.6)
ast36 = Assists per 36 minutes (adjusted to Pace Factor of 91.6)
tov36 = Turnovers per 36 minutes (adjusted to Pace Factor of 91.6)
ospm = Offensive Statistical Plus/Minus
dspm = Defensive Statistical Plus/Minus
spm = Statistical Plus/Minus
tORtg = Translated Offensive Rating
%Pos = % of Team Possessions used while on the court
tDRtg = Translated Defensive Rating
per = Player Efficiency Rating
ws = Win Shares
ws48 = Win Shares per 48 minutes

Here are their key rate stats side-by-side at each age:

Dirk Bird
ws48 per netRtg spm mp Age mp spm netRtg per ws48
0.040 12.8 -8.0 -2.82 958 20
0.132 17.5 5.8 1.52 2938 21
0.224 22.8 21.8 5.62 3125 22
0.222 24.1 19.6 6.48 2891 23 2955 5.50 15.2 20.5 0.182
0.249 25.6 24.2 8.01 3117 24 3239 5.17 11.9 19.9 0.160
0.190 22.5 16.1 4.76 2915 25 2923 7.36 18.6 22.6 0.205
0.248 26.1 24.2 7.20 3020 26 2982 7.54 21.1 24.1 0.225
0.275 28.1 26.8 7.54 3089 27 3028 7.53 20.1 24.2 0.215
0.278 27.6 27.7 7.26 2821 28 3161 8.51 22.7 26.5 0.238
0.223 24.6 20.4 6.07 2769 29 3113 9.17 24.2 25.6 0.244
0.171 23.1 13.4 3.83 3050 30 3005 9.39 23.2 26.4 0.243
0.194 22.9 16.3 4.14 3039 31 2965 9.43 22.5 27.8 0.243
0.213 23.4 18.8 4.89 2504 32 189 3.03 6.8 19.8 0.129
33 2944 6.08 11.4 21.9 0.154
34 2277 4.92 8.4 19.7 0.140
35 1662 4.88 11.4 21.0 0.159
0.214 23.7 18.7 5.40 Tot 7.24 18.2 23.5 0.203

("netRtg" is simply translated offensive rating, adjusted to a uniform 20% usage level using skill curves, minus translated defensive rating)

I can see what Simmons is talking about -- Dirk ranks ahead of Bird in career PER, WS48, and net Rating. Only SPM considers Bird to be better than Dirk (in fact, SPM says Bird is significantly better). Dirk's ridiculous efficiency numbers really jump off the page -- his career translated offensive rating is 4.5 points higher than Bird's, and it's not the product of a usage discrepancy, either. It's hard to argue that Dirk Nowitzki isn't a more efficient offensive player than Larry Bird was.

However, does that mean he's necessarily a better offensive player? By definition, SPM better predicts the behavior of 5-man units than a simple skill-curve based combination of offensive rating + usage, and SPM says Bird was actually a slightly better contributor to an offense than Dirk, despite Nowitzki's huge efficiency edge. Bird's assist rate per 36 minutes dwarfs Dirk's, as does his offensive rebounding rate, so while Dirk dominates on pure scoring skill (the ability to create high-percentage shots), Bird's all-around offensive game is being undervalued by efficiency-based metrics. The numbers also say Bird was a significantly better defensive contributor than Dirk, which jibes with their reputations (Dirk was once known as "Irk Nowitzki" because he lacked "D").

All told, though, it's closer than we would probably like to think. Bird has a near GOAT-level rep and Dirk is best known as the leader of a Dallas team that frequently underperforms in the playoffs (this year notwithstanding), but the evidence at hand says Dirk Nowitzki is either at or at least near Larry Bird's level as a player, depending on how much you value raw offensive efficiency vs. all-around offense.

224 Responses to “The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off”

  1. huevonkiller Says:

    #176 Sean I'm not "Creating" anything.

    I'm using real life examples to show how foolish your views are. The Lakers are a perfect example of why no one should listen to two biased celtic fans.

  2. huevonkiller Says:

    #195

    Yeah for sure.

  3. dbm Says:

    I did not mean to take the discussion down a sidetrack. Back to the original point: Dirk is creeping up on Bird, and continues to be one of the most underrated all-time greats (although the underrated part might not last long).

  4. khandor Says:

    Dbm,

    It is truly unfortunate when certain individuals like "Slimebucket" and "Anon" demonstrate an inability to follow along as a complicated strand develops within a specific thread, like this one now is ... in part, because you mentioned the name of Mr. Russell, and my recognition of him as the authentic GOAT, when it comes to evaluating properly the team game of basketball.

    My sincere sympathies go out to them [and to any others who might also fit into the same category].

    ------------------

    Dirk has definitely evolved into a terrific PF-C who will one day be listed amongst the greats of all-time.

  5. Murph Says:

    ONe thing to consider is playoff numbers. I think you'll quickly see that Dirk's playoff numbers are superior almost across the board to Bird's. And yes, I am a HUGE Bird fan. But, you have to recognize greatness when it slaps you upside the head.

  6. AYC Says:

    Neil, what are the postseason SPM numbers for Nowitzki and Bird? I expect the gap between them is narrowed, but I wouldn't assume Dirk rates higher based on that metric.

  7. sean Says:

    @201...

    You're NOT 'creating' anything? You took something that I DIDN'T say, then attributed the opposite to me as if it was MY view about 'defense'.

    E.g., because I didn't mention enough about defense---my view muat be that it doesn't matter.

    Superb.

    OF COURSE defense matters. But don't let that get in the way of you making a fool of yourself. I'm rather enjoying it.

  8. Cort Says:

    did anyone else notice how many steps LBJ took on his shot from the circle that made it 97-91 in OT in game 4 of the ECF? nice shot, but he took at least 3 steps as the last big slide step allowed him balance to get that shot off and make it. yet no one mentions it on TV or in post-game analysis.

  9. Anon Says:

    Same here Cort.

    Not the reason the Heat won though.

  10. Sean Says:

    @ 208 & 209...

    Yep. I hate the officiating in the NBA. The traveling rules are pitiful. But, it's how they call it in that league now. I think extra steps and hops in the lane in particular are forgiven------and to LeBron's CREDIT, he may take more advantage of this silly non-enforcement of what many of us KNOW is traveling than anyone. It's not LeBron's fault that the NBA does this.

    Like Marvin Hagler after his middleweight fight with Vito Antefeurmo (sp?) when asked about his OBVIOUS head butting that eventually caused the fight to be called on cuts: 'It's NOT illegal if they don't call it.'

    LeBron James WAS called for an offensive foul at the end of regulation in a tie game (which WAS a good call---but it showed the officials weren't trying to just let him do anything)------that I don't think Michael Jordan ever gets called for an offensive foul in that spot, JMO. Tough to picture Bird getting whistled for doing that to Scott Hastings in the Garden, too.

    I DON'T think LeBron James is getting preferential superstar treatment in these playoffs, but rather the league (for a while now, IMO) has 'adapted' what they consider 'traveling' to some interpretation that seems to suit LeBron James' manner of ball handling PERFECTLY.

    Whether it's something the league did on purpose to 'free up their newest torch bearer' is up for debate, but IMO, the league under David Stern has SEEMED to do similar things before. My best example would be liberating what a player could do (offensive foul-wise when handling the ball on the low block) when Shaq 'needed' more liberal rules so he didn't foul out on 6 offensive fouls every night. The NBA tweaked the rules, and what were really fouls practically every time Shaq dribbled then slammed into someone repeatedly to edge closer top the basket (and you couldn't touch him---just ask Arvidas Sabonis in the Western Conference Finals in Game #7)--------became legal.

    LeBron's manner of ball handling is so often traveling. The league has just decided that it isn't anymore. But I don't think LeBron is getting no-calls where others are getting whistled.

    I don't think there was an advantage for LeBron and Miami. The rules are just screwey now. (Though it could be purposely to 'free up' LeBron's game). JMO.

  11. Murph Says:

    ... I don't have all the numbers mostly because I'm at work and don't have the time. But, interestingly enough, Dirk's Playoff WS/48 is .211 and his PER is 25.0. Bird's WS/48 in the playoffs is .173 and his PER is 21.4. That's a sizable difference for 2 guys that have played in as many playoff games as Dirk and Bird have.

  12. khandor Says:

    Murph,

    If/when you get a chance, please look up the WS per minute played and PER per minute played for Bird and Dirk in the playoffs. Those stats might be very interesting as well.

  13. Rolf Says:

    http://baseballcomeback.blogspot.com/

  14. Murph Says:

    One thing to consider is the way the game was played in the 80's compared to during Dirk's career. Scoring is down considerably now compared to then.. So when you look at Dirk's playoff scoring compared to Bird's, it should impress you all the more.

    And then you get to efficiency. Bird was one of many Hall of Famers/All Stars on those Celtics teams. Dirk has played alongside 2 future Hall of Famers that were not in their prime. What does that say about Dirk's efficiency? He's far and away the main focus of defenses, but they still cannot stop him. Even though he's the main focus of defenses, his numbers are still better than Bird's in the playoffs. Dirk doesn't have a Kevin McHale or a Robert Parrish.. He's barely even had a Dennis Johnson quality of a scorer on his team the past decade. At other times, Dirk and Jason Terry were the only guys that could hit an outside shot..

    It's truly amazing what Dirk has done with the supporting cast that he has had over the years. This year's cast is better, but it's far from one of the best teams assembled in the history of the NBA. I'm not even sure how highly it would rate in the 2010-2011 season. So much of what they are accomplishing is because of Dirk. And that has always been the case. For the past 6-7 years, this team probably wouldn't win 25-30 games without Dirk. But with him, they're a 50+ win team every season. And what does Dirk do once the playoffs roll around, he steps up his game even further.

  15. huevonkiller Says:

    #207

    You're having reading comprehension problems.

    I said the Lakers completely destroy every stupid offensive theory you have thrown out here. Your ideas are subjective nonsense, and they are a perfect example of why. This isn't just about defense.

    I don't care that you think defense "matters", you have decided to ignore the reason a majority of these teams struggle.

  16. Anon Says:

    Good write up Murph.

    Let's not act as if all Dirk does is score either. He rebounds similar to Bird, and while you're not going to mistake as some shut-down defender he's not useless on that end either (look at the RAPM numbers for Dirk). He's an all-around player and not merely a scorer.

  17. Sean Says:

    @ #215...

    You are so irritable. Why? Because some people choose to discuss things that you cannot quantify to your liking? You're like a child throwing a tantrum when people want to discuss something that is not on your 'list'. The 'subjective nonsense' that you loathe exists nonetheless. You seem like you just want to pretend it doesn't exist because current advanced metrics do not account for certain things completely. They still exist... I honestly don't know why you behave so poorly when somebody talks about it/ them.

    It's childish to call things that you don't like 'nonsense' and 'stupid'.

    I assume you're young---because no grown man acts like this... but I don't think you're 3, either.

    Your behavior is ridiculous.

    I don't CARE what you don't want others to talk about. You seem to have a dysfunctionately inflated sense or self-worth. And you have a totally distorted sense of how much you know about what anybody else thinks about something. And I'm not buying.

  18. huevonkiller Says:

    Why don't you stick to the subject in this discussion? My comments are about your views/ideas and I think they are really dumb. You take it way too personal.

  19. Sean Says:

    @ 218---I know you think they're 'really dumb'. I think your scope of discussion is really limited. And your irritibility when someone ventures outside your limited scope is unnecessary, IMO.

    Out of respect for everyone else here, I'm not going to continue this pitiful discussion with you. It doesn't do the board any good.

  20. huevonkiller Says:

    Why is it pitiful? Because you're so mad you can't control yourself enough to stay on subject?

  21. Sean Says:

    Dirk was 60/ 62 from the free throw line in the series. Wow.

  22. KH Says:

    My personal feeling is there is not all that much seperating the 10-20 players ever so its not really suprising to me that Nowitzki stands up well in comparison to Bird and maybe even grades out slightly better just looking at pure scoring. That being said having watched both of them play extensively Bird's rates a solid edge based on his wizardlike passing ability in my opinion. I really don't think you can quantify perfectly how much a passer of Bird's level adds to a offense. I know its a cliche but there are things like hockey assists in basketball. Great passes that lead to other people getting an assist. Bird had to have many of those. Bird was also a better defender then Nowitzki. Fun discussion, and makes me appreciate Dirk even more, but I'm sticking with Larry Legend.

  23. Murph Says:

    KH, I don't think you can measure how much easier it is to be a wizard like passer when you're surrounded by future Hall of Famers. It definitely makes it easier.

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