Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #7 Philadelphia
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Miami Heat
58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)
PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)
Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Mike Bibby | 80 | 2285 | -0.27 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.085 | 10.9 |
| SG | Dwyane Wade | 76 | 2824 | 6.68 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 0.218 | 25.5 |
| SF | LeBron James | 79 | 3063 | 8.76 | 4.2 | 10.2 | 0.245 | 27.3 |
| PF | Chris Bosh | 77 | 2795 | 2.07 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 0.177 | 19.4 |
| C | Erick Dampier | 51 | 815 | -3.02 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.109 | 9.7 |
| SF | James Jones | 81 | 1549 | -0.25 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.145 | 11.1 |
| F-C | Joel Anthony | 75 | 1463 | -3.77 | 0.1 | -2.2 | 0.107 | 7.3 |
| C | Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 72 | 1145 | -1.82 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.122 | 12.8 |
| PG | Eddie House | 56 | 978 | -0.68 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.108 | 11.9 |
| SG | Mike Miller | 41 | 838 | -0.79 | -2.4 | -0.9 | 0.090 | 9.7 |
| PF | Juwan Howard | 57 | 592 | -5.36 | -1.0 | -2.6 | 0.074 | 8.4 |
| PG | Mario Chalmers | 70 | 1578 | 0.87 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.089 | 10.3 |
| PF | Udonis Haslem | 13 | 345 | -0.23 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 0.130 | 12.7 |
| C | Jamaal Magloire | 18 | 158 | 1.04 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.172 | 12.7 |
| C | Dexter Pittman | 2 | 11 | -17.51 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.246 | -6.4 |
Philadelphia 76ers
41-41, 3rd in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Doug Collins (41-41)
PTS/G: 99.0 (18th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.5 (12th of 30)
SRS: 1.00 (14th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.7 (16th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.6 (17th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (7th of 30)
Expected W-L: 45-37 (13th of 30)
Arena: Wells Fargo Center ▪ Attendance: 604,823 (25th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jrue Holiday | 82 | 2901 | 1.66 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.094 | 15.4 |
| SG | Jodie Meeks | 74 | 2062 | -0.08 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.120 | 12.5 |
| SF | Andre Iguodala | 67 | 2469 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.130 | 17.2 |
| PF | Elton Brand | 81 | 2809 | 2.20 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.161 | 18.5 |
| C | Spencer Hawes | 81 | 1718 | -2.54 | -1.7 | -2.6 | 0.066 | 12.8 |
| PF | Thaddeus Young | 82 | 2135 | 1.50 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 0.139 | 18.4 |
| SG | Evan Turner | 78 | 1797 | -2.82 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 0.060 | 10.8 |
| SF | Andres Nocioni | 54 | 931 | -2.76 | -3.1 | -0.2 | 0.067 | 10.1 |
| C | Marreese Speights | 64 | 734 | -1.99 | 0.7 | -2.5 | 0.110 | 15.4 |
| PG | Antonio Daniels | 4 | 35 | -8.35 | 0.3 | -1.5 | 0.044 | 6.6 |
| C | Tony Battie | 38 | 377 | -3.46 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 0.075 | 9.5 |
| PG | Louis Williams | 75 | 1747 | 1.31 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 0.141 | 18.9 |
| SF | Jason Kapono | 24 | 111 | -12.07 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -0.070 | 1.6 |
| PF | Darius Songaila | 10 | 71 | -8.72 | -0.8 | 0.6 | -0.019 | 1.2 |
| PF | Craig Brackins | 3 | 33 | -11.58 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.154 | 0.1 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | MIA | PHI | Prob | Games | MIA | PHI | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 32.3% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 31.2% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 21.3% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 19.6% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.5% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.6% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 15.7% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16.7% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 5.1% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5.9% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 4.5% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5.0% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2.1% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.8% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.0% | |
| MIA | 87.8% | MIA | 86.1% | |||||
| PHI | 12.2% | PHI | 13.9% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 17th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
I was reading Brian Windhorst's article after Miami's first game against Philly. I think he's a pretty ignorant guy right now, I don't think Wade is the official designated closer. And I think Windhorst is a baby hypocrite because he kept whining during the off-season about how LeBron left Cleveland. Guess what, Windhorst left Cleveland too.
That is such a dumb thing to say, to overrate one game and base that as the way Miami will play the rest of the post-season. The facts are that LeBron plays off the ball more, but he's a better crunch time player this year. Wade is more inefficient and on any one given night he might take a lot more shots than James, but over a season it basically evens out.
I won't mind pointing out how dumb that criticism looks a few weeks from now. This team is a multi-faceted attack, and James is their best player and has been all year. He takes TOO many shots sometimes in crunch time, and can afford to spread the ball around by not over-dribbling. But not being the #1 option? Well he has been all year. Take a look at how Miami has played since there Laker game in March (when they figured things out). LeBron is owning Wade, give him respect. Luckily for me he's young and has a long career ahead of him as well. Some players have their careers slandered by poor media hacks.
April 18th, 2011 at 11:05 am
According to 82 games, this season LBJ shot a .600+ TS% (!) in the clutch and scored 5 points less per 48 minutes than the leader Kobe (LBJ finished 3rd), despite playing alongside another player who also likes to use his team's offense in the clutch. All while taking ten less shot attempts than the media de facto "best player" Kobe Bryant.
Windy needs to stop pulling a "Skip Bayless" here.
April 19th, 2011 at 12:52 am
Windy supports Rose for MVP so it makes sense how he slurps a small sample size of games. And his illogical basketball positions.
NBA.com "statscube" is tracking clutch numbers for the 2011 playoffs. So I guess at the end of the post-season you can take a look at it. I suspect LeBron will be Miami's best player again, and the difference in clutch production won't mean much. I think Miami has a really good chance to win a title but it is a tough road.