Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Memphis
Posted by Neil Paine on April 30, 2011
Oklahoma City Thunder
55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)
PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)
Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Russell Westbrook | 82 | 2847 | 4.46 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 0.159 | 23.6 |
| SG | Thabo Sefolosha | 79 | 2049 | 0.10 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.097 | 10.4 |
| SF | Kevin Durant | 78 | 3038 | 4.97 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.189 | 23.6 |
| PF | Serge Ibaka | 82 | 2216 | -0.13 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.164 | 17.7 |
| C | Kendrick Perkins | 29 | 742 | -3.35 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.063 | 9.6 |
| SG | James Harden | 82 | 2189 | 2.40 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 0.156 | 16.4 |
| PF | Nick Collison | 71 | 1524 | -1.56 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.113 | 10.8 |
| C | Nazr Mohammed | 75 | 1280 | -1.30 | -0.2 | -1.9 | 0.100 | 15.9 |
| PG | Eric Maynor | 82 | 1200 | -3.35 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.061 | 11.7 |
| SF | Daequan Cook | 43 | 598 | -0.17 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0.126 | 12.8 |
| PG | Royal Ivey | 25 | 155 | -3.93 | -1.0 | -3.8 | 0.060 | 8.2 |
Memphis Grizzlies
46-36, 3rd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Lionel Hollins (46-36)
PTS/G: 99.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (13th of 30)
SRS: 2.55 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.9 (15th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.6 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.1 (9th of 30)
Expected W-L: 48-34 (10th of 30)
Arena: FedExForum ▪ Attendance: 600,507 (27th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Mike Conley | 81 | 2872 | 2.47 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.111 | 15.9 |
| SG | Tony Allen | 72 | 1494 | 4.23 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.152 | 18.4 |
| SF | Sam Young | 78 | 1577 | -1.98 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 0.088 | 12.5 |
| PF | Zach Randolph | 75 | 2724 | 3.14 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.185 | 22.6 |
| C | Marc Gasol | 81 | 2586 | 1.36 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 0.146 | 16.8 |
| SF | Shane Battier | 82 | 2375 | 0.02 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 0.103 | 12.3 |
| SG | O.J. Mayo | 71 | 1869 | -1.39 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.062 | 12.6 |
| PF | Darrell Arthur | 80 | 1609 | -0.73 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.113 | 15.7 |
| PG | Greivis Vasquez | 70 | 860 | -4.51 | -2.1 | -1.4 | 0.030 | 9.4 |
| C | Hamed Haddadi | 31 | 168 | -0.51 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.164 | 19.7 |
| SG | Xavier Henry | 38 | 527 | -7.48 | -1.6 | -0.7 | 0.021 | 7.0 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | OKC | MEM | Prob | Games | OKC | MEM | Prob | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.4% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 21.6% | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 18.2% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.5% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 15.9% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16.4% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 14.8% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13.1% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 11.4% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9.8% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 7.7% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9.7% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 7.4% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5.8% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 4.3% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3.1% | |
| OKC | 60.8% | OKC | 68.2% | |||||
| MEM | 39.2% | MEM | 31.8% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 30th, 2011 at 2:10 am
Congrats to the Grizz, but it's sad to see the end of an era in San Antonio.
I actually think they have a chance against the Thunder, it should be a fun series. If the Thunder were further along in the playoff growth process, it would be an easy series for them. OKC in 6 or 7.
The Grizzlies' 12 straight losses before winning a playoff game is the longest streak since expansion began in 1949-1950.
http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/growing-from-cubs-to-grizzlies-memphis.html
May 1st, 2011 at 7:40 am
I think Memphis should start Battier instead of Young, put Battier on Durant and Allen on Westbrook.
I also think Oklahoma should start Collison instead of Ibaka. Aside from Collison's way superior RAPM I don't see Ibaka having a chance defending Randolph, as there is a 35lbs difference
May 3rd, 2011 at 2:21 pm
I love the Grizzlies. They've replace Denver as my favorite scrappy underdog team that is sneakily super-talented in these playoffs.
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Hey let's get this lockout solved there is basketball to play. Lots of businesses rely on the season other than owners and players.