34 Responses to “Who Ruled the Top Defenses in 2010? (Part II)”

1. huevonkiller Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 8:54 am

   Another fascinating analysis. James with some pretty compelling evidence.

   Durant seems to have a slight problem against good defenses. Just a great study in general, thanks Neil.

2. JTaylor21 Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 9:48 am

   @1. I think that the reason for durant struggling against top defenses is because anyone who watched the lakers series knows that he struggles when guarded by a physical player who goes for steals a lot. For all the BS hype about durant being just as good if not better than bron/wade/kobe, he struggles with his handles alot against good/great defenders. For someone who's supposed to be the best thing since silced bread, he has a few weakness to work on before he can reach those guys level. People act like what he did last year at this phase of his career was unprecedented forgetting that bron put up 31/7/7 his third year in the league. His everyone's new favorite star now but wait five years down the road when he hasn't won a chip , people will turn on him just like they did on bron.

3. JTaylor21 Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 10:28 am

   @2, Maybe not with the same verocity they came at bron with but people will start calling his career a failure. It beats me that people don't understand just how hard it's to make it to the finals let alone win a chip. If guys like malone, stockon, wilkins and barkley couldn't win one with all the talents they possesed what makes people think that guys today will just waltz right up and win one so early in their careers. Speaking on bron, it was amazing to see all the anger and backlash when he choose to play for miami. People talk about a 25 yr old player giving up being the so called "man" so early in his career but forget that he's already played in 500+ gms with 60+ playoffs gms on top of that while guys like MJ only played in 350+ gms in his first 7 seasons. He has done it by himself for 600 gms which is more than enough games for people to see him "being the man". He doesn't have to do it for another 7 yrs just to satisfy people's need and wants while wasting his career carrying a medicore supporting cast. It all goes back to what neil said about people false perception of MJ doing it all by himself, which they expect players of today to do the same. MJ has become a gift and curse.

4. huevonkiller Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 10:40 am

   Oh I'm with you JT on a lot of that. Fair points.

5. Charrua Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 10:48 am

   Interesting. Lebron's pattern of not doing that well against top 5 defenses continues (his ORTG is 9 points lower than his season average) while Wade production takes much less of a hit (only 3 points lower). Kobe really did hit a wall last season but he's 32 so it isn't much of a surprise. His performance in the playoffs is, though. ¿Maybe rest, focus and the drained knee helped?

6. AHL Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 11:04 am

   2. - Nah, as long as KD has that twitter, everyone will still love him as the good kid next door.

7. AYC Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 11:39 am

   KD was a young guy playing his first playoff series, against the eventual champs and an elite defender at his position. Playoff basketball is a different animal. You have to learn to walk before you run... he'll be fine

8. DSMok1 Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 11:44 am

   Well done, Neil.

9. Blackmamba24 Says:
   July 28th, 2010 at 12:58 pm

   LOl yeah lets remeber Kobe Had two injured finger an injured back and injured ankle and needed that knee worked. and LeBron? Didn't i here something about an elbow.....THERE GOES LEBRON WITH THE ALLEY OOP...oh never mind it was fine lol. Kobe did fine agaisn't the good defenses he is the number one target and even as injured as he was he still out performed the rest when it comes down to it. And if you think not then go break your index finger and maim your pinky and try to shoot a basketball oh wait there aint a stat for that is there???? Kevin Durant he's everything he's hyped to be. See the problem is your comparin lebrons 30/7/7 to his and the way they get them is so different. See Durant gets his in the flow of the offense and he's a more skilled scorer than james. runners,pick and pops,3pointers, up and unders, backboard abuse(lol my personal fav move of my own) drives,cuts, fadeaways etc. He does in more ways the LBJ and the only thing missin from his game so far is a post game once he can put his back to the basket he will be damn near unguardable. He is thee true heir to kobe's throne. LBj is too raw and overly reliant on his physical tools aka faster bigger stronger with ridiculous hops(I will say that Lebron is a very skilled ball handler and passer but those are his only truly elite skills unless you count athleticism) Wade is too old as he's like only 3-4 years younger and still not as skilled even tho he's a monster in his own right, Carmelo is so disrespected to me cuz he is a monster can you imagine LBJ's body with Carmelo's moves omg that would be something to watch(not that Carmelo isn't a physical monster himself just not the hops and speed althought i believe he's stronger and plays like it)

10. P Middy Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 2:05 pm

    deep breath, Blackmamba 24. Deep breath.

    RE: Manu. What do the top and the worst defenses have in common that might explain this? Without going to the stats right now, my guesses are fouls per possession and three point percentage, due to constant rotation and terribleness respectively. We know Manu can get to the lane and flop (and1). We know he can bomb from deep.

11. John Cena Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 2:55 pm

    This comment has been removed by an administrator

12. P Middy Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 2:58 pm

    That's just rude.

13. koberulz Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 3:16 pm

    Blackmamba24 makes me embarrassed to be a Bryant fan.

14. Anon x 2 Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 5:35 pm

    Kobe's injuries are well known, especially after their schedule got tougher. Let's move on from that.

    I didn't see Durant vs the top 10/5 defenses in there. Can we get those?

    Also, is it possible that high minutes played is bringing down guys like Kobe, Wade, and even lebron (and Durant) in ORat against top 10 and top 5 defenses. MP vs those teams seem to be an obvious chasm for these guys versus guys who rank ahead of them.

    One other note, holy crap does this make Elton Brand the most overpaid player? He can't do anything versus garbage defenses!

15. Greyberger Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 5:54 pm

    Regarding Manu, I don't think there's any reason why he was especially good against the best and worst defenses beyond his fit and simple variance. Manu's a screen and roll guy on an excellent S&R team; since he can get to the line and shoot 3s while handling this responsibility long twos end up being a small part of his possession total. He had a 28% assist rate this year to help keep him in the high Pos% group in part due to Tony Parker injuries.

    But he doesn't need an up-year (or an up-year in team offense) to show up all over these lists. His career TS is 59%. Always has great steal and TO numbers. Advanced stats love this guy. He's a [insert lame kobe quote here].

16. Greyberger Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 6:16 pm

    BTW, just because it's not explicit and I'm dumb - the top 5 defenses means vs. CHA ORL BOS MIA and MIL, right?

    Western conference guys might have stranger numbers in the 5 section thanks to this. The ten list (I think) has LAL SAS OKC CLE and CHI (with Utah as alternate) which should provide more balanced weight.

17. jsteez Says:
    July 28th, 2010 at 8:14 pm

    I noticed that Corey Maggette fared quite well on this analysis. What this doesn't seem to account for is how the team performs w/ and w/o the player on the court, nor does it capture their net offense/defense contribution. Maggette is fantastic at getting to the line and can score decently, but as a Warriors fan, it was painful to watch how his style of play negatively impacted the rest of the team's performance. Further, he was going at 4s half the time, meaning he had an offensive advantage, but was a defensive liability due to Don Nelson's played-out small-ball strategy.

18. Anon x 2 Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 1:29 am

    #16 - and I believe L.A. was actually #1 until the Bynum injury, followed by Kobe missing time, too. They went from 1st to 6th in about 6 weeks.

    Maybe against the top 5 starting or top played units in the league?

19. Ripp Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 2:29 am

    Shout out to Chris Bosh....I think he is going to surprise a lot of people this year.

20. huevonkiller Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 6:24 am

    #5 Charrua, you're whining now about LeBron playing slightly better than Prime Wade against top 5 defenses? Including last year's Magic series I'm pretty sure LeBron was at Jordan Level. Which is a pretty decent sample size.

    Do you know what qualified as the best against top 5 defenses in 2009?

    108.7 on 38.5 % possessions. For supposedly an extremely clutch player in a 30+ PER season. So put it into context. Don't whine about it, this isn't even including his complete domination of the Magic.

    I guess leading the league this year, and that 120+ O-rating he dropped on Orlando doesn't do it for you? He was #1 in basketball on paper stats, and #1 in OSPM times minutes played.

21. huevonkiller Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 6:27 am

    Obviously Manu was the best, per minute at least. Bosh was pretty good too per minute with O-rating/%pos.

22. jonty Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 9:58 am

    folks! beware of Huevonkiller...he is actually Maverick Carter..ha ha...

23. huevonkiller Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 10:25 am

    Nah, I just hate the Dan Gilberts of the world. And those whiny Cleveland fans.

    LeBron against top 5 defenses, last 28 games (09 playoffs- 2010 playoffs):

    1153 minutes
    30.5 PPG
    12.25 fta
    58.25 TS%
    7.6 rpg
    7.8 apg
    4.1 tpg

    Against the Magic James had a ~123 offensive rating in 44 mpg, adjusted for 33% usage rate (~34% possessions with Dean Oliver's stats). He has approximately a 115 O-rating over this span of games. A pretty huge number against that type of D.

    2009 series:

    42.2 usg 143 -> 152.2 rating
    38.5 usg 113 -> 118.2 rating
    42.8 usg 117 -> 126.8 rating
    42.0 usg 106 -> 115 rating
    37.3 usg 124 -> 128.3 rating
    30.2 usg 104 -> 101.2 rating

24. huevonkiller Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 10:27 am

    Sorry if there are some minor errors, but that is a rough draft.

25. JTaylor21 Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 11:40 am

    Excellent job, huevonkiller. Just goes to show that bron really does step his game up when the stakes are higher. He's second alltime in Playoffs PPG right behind guess who MJ.

26. Anon Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 1:56 pm

    When he is healthy, CP3 is one of the 3 players (along with Bron and Wade) that own the league offensively. Ditto with Manu.

    Bosh is a surprise, but his game has always been underrated on that end. If he could just bring anything on defense he would be a top 5 overall player easily.

    Gasol simply continues to make a name for himself as well. He - not Kobe, as poster #9 went off on a hilarious rant about - was the man against the league's better defenses in 2010 for LA and is perhaps the best offensive big in the game.

    I think that later down the road, Dirk will get the props he deserves as an ALL-TIME great. Year after year, he performs against everybody, regular season and playoffs. And I don't wanna hear it from the "rings people" - can't fault him for the '06 Finals where Wade played well, the Heat defense played JUST as well and the Mavs arguably got shafted by the refs. And this season he owned the Spurs in the playoffs, except he had no help elsewhere.

    Maybe Dirk and CP3 need to get together on the same team.

27. Austin Scott Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 2:42 pm

    How about Maggette and Brockman. Milwaukee really geared up this offseason, and Illyasova made his list a few times too. I think that the Bucks are getting ready to play some of the toughest EC defenses, and i think that they have a legit chance to make some noise next season and potentially upset one of the three favorite east teams.

28. Adarsh Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 2:50 pm

    Bryant's play isn't surprising at all... at least not in the regular season. In the playoffs, he was his usual self... definitely wouldn't look too much into a stat that ranks Westbrook or Baron over him.

    Neil, how do the Boston Celtics perform vs Top 5 defenses? Curious to know why Rondo isn't on any of these lists.

29. Neil Paine Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 3:25 pm

    Re #28 - Here are Kobe's numbers for the playoffs alone:

    Vs. Type of D	MP	ORtg	%Pos	OSPM
    Top 10	508.9	103.9	33.8	4.72
    Above-Avg	673.2	108.0	33.4	5.40
    Below-Avg/Bottom 10	249.5	135.4	31.0	14.40

    (Note: I combined below-avg and bottom 10 in 1 row because L.A. only played one below-avg defense, Phoenix, and they happened to be in the bottom 10 as well)

    So Kobe's performance vs. good defenses was better (really, the overall performance was better, lending credence to the injury theory), though he still did the overwhelming majority of his damage against the Suns, the 8th-worst defensive team in the league.

30. BSK Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 10:38 pm

    It would be helpful to know how much year-to-year variation is typical. Should we assume that there is something appreciably different about Kobe this year than last because of the change or is such a change "normal"?

31. Matt Says:
    July 29th, 2010 at 11:00 pm

    Still wondering why Miami only won one game.

32. rav Says:
    August 1st, 2010 at 9:48 am

    @ Matt (31.)

    Because, apart from Wade, the team was horrible?

    And the Celts turned it on in the playoffs.

33. Matt Says:
    August 1st, 2010 at 11:46 am

    Should that not reflect negatively on Wade, though? The Heat won 47 games. The Celtics won 50 games. And it was a 4-5 seed matchup. I do not buy into the "team was horrible" non-sense at all. This is the same team that came close to nearly sweeping the Lakers, save a Kobe game-winner. Did Wade's injury and Pierce's game-winner, have that much of an impact on the Heat player's psyche? Does that not fall on Wade? I just find it very tough to buy into the notion that Wade "Ruled" the Top D when his team only won 1 game. Also, if the Celtics "turned it on", should that reflect positively on Rondo, instead? Just not following the logic.

34. Anon Says:
    August 12th, 2010 at 2:56 pm

    "The Heat won 47 games. The Celtics won 50 games. And it was a 4-5 seed matchup. I do not buy into the "team was horrible" non-sense at all."

    Doesn't matter if your team is 82-0. If your team doesn't play well in a particular series, you don't win.

    "Did Wade's injury and Pierce's game-winner, have that much of an impact on the Heat player's psyche? Does that not fall on Wade?"

    No, because Wade is Wade. He came to play...his teammates did not. And that's not HIS fault.

    I see that the casual fan still loves to put an individual's OWN flaws on someone else -- preferably the visible face on the team.