Biggest Team Factor Declines
Posted by Neil Paine on January 24, 2011
This morning, Zach Lowe of SI.com's must-read Point Forward blog emailed me wondering how Utah's collapse in defensive rebounding % ranks among all-time declines. That got me wondering about the biggest drop-offs in all of the Four Factors, so I ran Z-scores on each team's numbers and looked at the biggest negative changes from one year to the next:
Offensive Effective FG%
| Year | Team | z_eFG% | Prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Cleveland Cavaliers | -1.717 | 1.595 | -3.312 |
| 1989 | Boston Celtics | 0.559 | 2.946 | -2.387 |
| 1998 | Golden State Warriors | -2.379 | -0.015 | -2.364 |
| 1997 | Orlando Magic | -0.713 | 1.507 | -2.220 |
| 1997 | San Antonio Spurs | -1.203 | 0.852 | -2.055 |
| 1977 | Buffalo Braves | -0.914 | 1.135 | -2.049 |
| 1976 | Chicago Bulls | -2.844 | -0.822 | -2.022 |
| 2010 | New Jersey Nets | -2.175 | -0.154 | -2.021 |
| 2001 | Detroit Pistons | -1.141 | 0.860 | -2.001 |
| 1975 | Atlanta Hawks | -1.553 | 0.386 | -1.939 |
Offensive Turnover %
| Year | Team | z_TOV% | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Denver Nuggets | -1.455 | 2.021 | -3.476 |
| 1993 | Minnesota Timberwolves | -2.140 | 1.268 | -3.409 |
| 2000 | Chicago Bulls | -3.150 | -0.433 | -2.718 |
| 1994 | Chicago Bulls | -0.332 | 2.093 | -2.425 |
| 2006 | New York Knickerbockers | -2.611 | -0.188 | -2.423 |
| 2008 | Sacramento Kings | -1.688 | 0.733 | -2.421 |
| 2003 | Denver Nuggets | -2.364 | -0.001 | -2.363 |
| 2000 | Phoenix Suns | -0.823 | 1.502 | -2.326 |
| 2004 | Washington Wizards | -1.538 | 0.751 | -2.290 |
| 1997 | New York Knickerbockers | -2.459 | -0.219 | -2.240 |
Offensive Rebound %
| Year | Team | z_ORB% | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | Dallas Mavericks | -1.430 | 2.095 | -3.525 |
| 1983 | Houston Rockets | -1.144 | 2.278 | -3.423 |
| 1999 | Chicago Bulls | -1.317 | 2.028 | -3.345 |
| 1994 | Detroit Pistons | -1.587 | 1.105 | -2.692 |
| 2004 | Golden State Warriors | -0.119 | 2.550 | -2.669 |
| 1993 | San Antonio Spurs | -1.701 | 0.566 | -2.267 |
| 1990 | Golden State Warriors | -2.061 | 0.160 | -2.220 |
| 2008 | Orlando Magic | -1.262 | 0.954 | -2.216 |
| 1984 | Indiana Pacers | -2.045 | 0.110 | -2.155 |
| 2002 | Detroit Pistons | -1.639 | 0.496 | -2.136 |
Offensive FT/FGA
| Year | Team | z_FT/FGA | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Los Angeles Clippers | -1.596 | 1.276 | -2.872 |
| 2001 | Detroit Pistons | 0.149 | 2.669 | -2.520 |
| 1998 | Golden State Warriors | -1.559 | 0.948 | -2.508 |
| 1992 | Atlanta Hawks | -1.176 | 1.265 | -2.441 |
| 2010 | Milwaukee Bucks | -2.016 | 0.143 | -2.159 |
| 1987 | Utah Jazz | -1.429 | 0.599 | -2.029 |
| 2002 | Washington Wizards | -0.264 | 1.671 | -1.935 |
| 2006 | Phoenix Suns | -2.998 | -1.074 | -1.924 |
| 2005 | Golden State Warriors | -2.024 | -0.113 | -1.911 |
| 2010 | Philadelphia 76ers | -1.041 | 0.815 | -1.856 |
Defensive Effective FG%
| Year | Team | z_deFG% | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Cleveland Cavaliers | -2.231 | 1.153 | -3.384 |
| 1979 | Boston Celtics | -1.969 | 1.320 | -3.289 |
| 2007 | Memphis Grizzlies | -2.104 | 1.125 | -3.230 |
| 2004 | Sacramento Kings | -0.737 | 2.336 | -3.073 |
| 1979 | Cleveland Cavaliers | -1.596 | 1.329 | -2.925 |
| 1997 | San Antonio Spurs | -1.220 | 1.616 | -2.836 |
| 1996 | Charlotte Hornets | -1.815 | 0.968 | -2.783 |
| 2010 | Detroit Pistons | -1.591 | 0.897 | -2.488 |
| 2003 | Philadelphia 76ers | -1.144 | 1.305 | -2.448 |
| 1977 | Milwaukee Bucks | -1.295 | 1.109 | -2.403 |
Defensive Turnover %
| Year | Team | z_dTOV% | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | San Diego Clippers | -1.541 | 1.407 | -2.948 |
| 1976 | Washington Bullets | -0.928 | 1.769 | -2.697 |
| 2007 | Charlotte Bobcats | 0.658 | 3.260 | -2.603 |
| 2004 | Orlando Magic | -1.460 | 0.952 | -2.411 |
| 2005 | Los Angeles Lakers | -2.302 | 0.107 | -2.408 |
| 1999 | Boston Celtics | 0.815 | 3.212 | -2.397 |
| 2003 | Atlanta Hawks | -1.762 | 0.496 | -2.257 |
| 2007 | New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets | -1.431 | 0.681 | -2.113 |
| 1990 | New York Knickerbockers | -0.428 | 1.657 | -2.084 |
| 1995 | Dallas Mavericks | -0.800 | 1.158 | -1.957 |
Defensive Rebound %
| Year | Team | z_DRB% | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Milwaukee Bucks | -2.346 | 0.944 | -3.290 |
| 1988 | San Antonio Spurs | -1.959 | 0.778 | -2.737 |
| 1985 | New York Knickerbockers | -1.983 | 0.605 | -2.588 |
| 1979 | New Orleans Jazz | -1.730 | 0.840 | -2.570 |
| 1983 | Golden State Warriors | -1.152 | 1.274 | -2.426 |
| 2011 | Utah Jazz | -1.361 | 1.001 | -2.362 |
| 1985 | Cleveland Cavaliers | -0.090 | 2.192 | -2.282 |
| 2004 | Denver Nuggets | -1.096 | 1.129 | -2.225 |
| 2000 | Dallas Mavericks | -2.673 | -0.475 | -2.199 |
| 1980 | Houston Rockets | -1.695 | 0.412 | -2.108 |
Defensive FT/FGA
| Year | Team | z_dFT/FGA | prev | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Boston Celtics | -3.215 | -0.221 | -2.993 |
| 2004 | Utah Jazz | -3.615 | -1.160 | -2.455 |
| 1998 | Denver Nuggets | -1.344 | 1.077 | -2.421 |
| 2004 | Memphis Grizzlies | -0.896 | 1.412 | -2.308 |
| 2009 | Milwaukee Bucks | -2.923 | -0.651 | -2.271 |
| 2001 | Orlando Magic | -2.041 | 0.183 | -2.224 |
| 1989 | San Antonio Spurs | -1.693 | 0.429 | -2.121 |
| 2008 | Minnesota Timberwolves | -1.336 | 0.782 | -2.118 |
| 2010 | Toronto Raptors | -0.819 | 1.260 | -2.078 |
| 2011 | Minnesota Timberwolves | -1.694 | 0.348 | -2.042 |
A few 2011 teams on these lists... For those still doubting LeBron James' overall impact, note that his departure from Cleveland coincided with the biggest declines in both offensive and defensive shooting effectiveness by a team since 1974! Also, there's Utah with the 6th-biggest drop-off in DRB% relative to the league, and the T-Wolves with the 10th-biggest decline in opponent FT/FGA.
January 27th, 2011 at 9:23 am
i dont get why you dont understand what i am saying. i never once said he WASNT responsible for nearly every single win. i am saying we cannot reach that conclusion by comparing metrics from last year to this year, and only pointing to one factor (lebron leaving) as being the only reason for that huge difference when multiple factors are in play. I AM NOT ARGUING THE CONCLUSION! lol i have an issue with the analysis which is incomplete. thats all.
January 27th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
The differential comparison of using last year's team with LBJ on/off court is then what you seek. Yet you continue to bang your head against a spikes.
Cavs LAST YEAR NOT THIS YEAR:
+11 with LBJ on - championship contender
-5 with him off - worst team in the NBA
The Heat this year:
+ 11 with LBJ on - you know the drill.
+1.3 with LBJ off - not terrible, still a playoff team.
But it's NOT the Lakers:
+8.2 with Kobe on - you know the drill by now, I hope?
+8.3 with Kobe off - you definitely know the drill, championship contending team.