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2010-11 Projected vs. Actual (11-22-2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on November 22, 2010

Key: OSPM/DSPM = Offensive/Defensive Statistical +/- Pr-OS/Pr-DS = Projected OSPM/DSPM from Simple Projection System Team Off/Def = Team offensive/defensive rating relative to league average Team Ovr = Team offensive rating minus defensive rating Team Pr-Off/Pr-Def/Pr-Ovr = Team projected efficiency relative to league avg. Player Team Player Age Team G MP OSPM DSPM Pr-OS Pr-DS Off […]

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Final 2010-11 Simple Projections for All Veterans

Posted by Neil Paine on October 26, 2010

Projected Per-36 Minute Rates Percentages player_name age fgm fga 3pm 3pa ftm fta orb drb ast stl blk tov pf pts fg% 3p% ft% ts% Shareef Abdur-Rahim 34 5.3 11.9 0.9 2.6 2.7 3.6 1.8 4.4 3.2 1.0 0.7 2.0 3.3 14.2 0.442 0.356 0.760 0.525 Alex Acker 28 5.5 12.7 1.1 3.1 2.1 3.0 […]

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Will the 2011 Heat Emulate the 2007 Patriots?

Posted by Neil Paine on September 24, 2010

Sorry to go on a 2011 Miami Heat bender here, but BBR Blog reader Nick had an intriguing comment in response to yesterday's post about a possible weakness of the LeBron James/Dwyane Wade tandem: "Trying to compare the Heat to anything that has ever come before is an exercise in futility. You have the best […]

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Posted in Analysis, Non-Basketball, Offseason, Season Preview | 22 Comments »

Best Offensive and Defensive Coaches

Posted by Neil Paine on September 21, 2010

When I posted last month about the all-time players who played for the best offensive and defensive teams in NBA history, there was a common theme among a number of the names at the top of each list: namely, they all played for a certain coach, or under a certain scheme. It only makes sense, […]

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Posted in Analysis, Coaches, History, Statgeekery | 14 Comments »

Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Posted by Neil Paine on August 11, 2010

Today I thought we'd briefly put aside the top college programs series and take a look at the NBA teams that had the most personnel turnover from one season to the next. As we all know, the 2010-11 Miami Heat will probably return less than half of their minutes from a year ago, with the […]

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Posted in Analysis, History | 5 Comments »

The LeBron Rant

Posted by Neil Paine on July 9, 2010

Basketball is all about sharing, about unselfishness, about legends like Bill Russell doing whatever it takes to win. But apparently it's also about who has the bigger... um, contract. You see, all we heard these past few days was whether LeBron and D-Wade could co-exist as "Alpha Males", or that LBJ joining Wade in Miami […]

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Posted in No Math Required, Offseason, Rants & Ramblings | 281 Comments »

2010 NBA Draft: Player Comparisons (Lottery Picks)

Posted by Neil Paine on June 25, 2010

I love the way the web's best draft sites provide comparable NBA players for draftees, because -- while totally unscientific -- it provides a decent framework upon which to build your view of (and expectations for) each rookie. Today, I'm going to look at the comparisons from Basketball Prospectus' Kevin Pelton, HoopsHype, DraftExpress, and NBADraft.net […]

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Posted in Analysis, NBA Draft, Offseason | 3 Comments »

All Players w/ at least 1 30+ minute game, 2008-10

Posted by Neil Paine on June 4, 2010

Player 30mp Games Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) Chris Mihm 1 20.982235 13.756764 1.525 0.127292 Dante Cunningham 1 19.705399 13.711768 1.437 0.150775 Josh McRoberts 2 17.385490 9.862048 1.763 0.078010 Gordan Giricek 3 14.614218 8.043418 1.817 0.069316 Kevin Ollie 2 12.669536 10.538762 1.202 0.229374 Amir Johnson 8 11.002489 5.125428 2.147 0.031890 Brevin Knight 9 10.542314 […]

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Championship Usage Patterns and “The Secret”

Posted by Neil Paine on May 18, 2010

In basketball perhaps more than any other sport, the concept of team-building -- creating a cohesive group that fits together and may be greater than the sum of its parts -- is phenomenally important. In baseball, a sport dominated by one-on-one matchups, not a whole lot of consideration has to be made for how teammates […]

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Posted in Analysis, Playoffs, Rants & Ramblings, Statgeekery | 9 Comments »

Player Audit: Adrian Dantley

Posted by Neil Paine on April 8, 2010

As his prize for winning the 2010 Basketball-Reference NCAA Tournament Pool contest, reader Ian was able to request a post on a basketball-related subject of his choosing. The topic he went with: "As for a subject of the blog, I'll go with my childhood hero, who I feel has long been unheralded by the masses, […]

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Posted in History, Player Audit | 29 Comments »