BBR Rankings: Pre-Finals Schedule-Adjusted NBA Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings

Posted by Neil Paine on May 27, 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on May 26, 2011:

					Full-Season										Post-Deadline
Rk	Prv	Team	Cnf	Div	W	L	WPct	Off	Rk	Prv	Def	Rk	Prv	Ovr	Off	Def	Ovr
1	1	Miami Heat	E	SE	70	27	0.722	4.31	1	1	-3.23	5	5	7.54	4.69	-1.72	6.41
2	2	Chicago Bulls	E	C	71	27	0.724	0.66	13	12	-6.19	2	2	6.85	1.49	-5.81	7.30
3	3	Los Angeles Lakers	W	P	61	31	0.663	3.20	7	7	-2.62	8	8	5.81	0.67	-4.18	4.85
4	4	San Antonio Spurs	W	SW	63	25	0.716	3.71	5	5	-1.97	9	9	5.68	3.86	0.83	3.02
5	5	Dallas Mavericks	W	SW	69	28	0.711	2.82	8	8	-2.79	6	6	5.61	4.15	-4.23	8.38
6	6	Boston Celtics	E	A	61	30	0.670	-1.06	21	21	-6.30	1	1	5.24	-3.55	-5.73	2.18
7	7	Orlando Magic	E	SE	54	34	0.614	0.20	15	15	-4.68	3	3	4.87	-1.67	-5.33	3.66
8	8	Denver Nuggets	W	NW	51	36	0.586	4.15	2	2	-0.35	13	14	4.50	2.34	-5.83	8.17
9	9	Oklahoma City Thunder	W	NW	64	35	0.646	3.79	4	4	-0.35	14	13	4.14	5.21	-1.70	6.91
10	10	Memphis Grizzlies	W	SW	53	42	0.558	0.07	16	16	-2.70	7	7	2.77	0.85	-3.54	4.39
11	11	Houston Rockets	W	SW	43	39	0.524	3.96	3	3	1.63	20	20	2.32	3.63	-1.20	4.82
12	12	Portland Trail Blazers	W	NW	50	38	0.568	1.49	10	10	-0.22	15	15	1.71	3.21	-0.77	3.98
13	13	New Orleans Hornets	W	SW	48	40	0.545	-0.92	18	18	-1.89	10	10	0.98	0.72	2.82	-2.10
14	14	Philadelphia 76ers	E	A	42	45	0.483	-0.75	17	17	-1.53	11	11	0.79	-2.12	-1.61	-0.51
15	15	New York Knickerbockers	E	A	42	44	0.488	3.57	6	6	3.49	27	27	0.08	4.89	6.13	-1.24
Rk	Prv	Team	Cnf	Div	W	L	WPct	Off	Rk	Prv	Def	Rk	Prv	Ovr	Off	Def	Ovr
16	16	Phoenix Suns	W	P	40	42	0.488	2.29	9	9	2.97	22	22	-0.68	0.91	2.34	-1.43
17	17	Atlanta Hawks	E	SE	50	44	0.532	-1.02	20	20	0.18	16	16	-1.20	-2.04	0.78	-2.82
18	18	Milwaukee Bucks	E	C	35	47	0.427	-5.84	30	30	-4.51	4	4	-1.33	-6.24	-4.15	-2.09
19	19	Indiana Pacers	E	C	38	49	0.437	-2.51	23	23	-0.83	12	12	-1.68	-4.15	0.21	-4.36
20	20	Utah Jazz	W	NW	39	43	0.476	0.98	11	11	2.78	21	21	-1.80	0.38	5.13	-4.75
21	21	Golden State Warriors	W	P	36	46	0.439	0.92	12	13	3.23	25	25	-2.31	1.67	2.39	-0.71
22	22	Los Angeles Clippers	W	P	32	50	0.390	-1.89	22	22	1.27	19	19	-3.17	-2.95	-0.92	-2.03
23	23	Detroit Pistons	E	C	30	52	0.366	0.64	14	14	5.13	29	29	-4.50	3.36	8.65	-5.28
24	24	Charlotte Bobcats	E	SE	34	48	0.415	-3.74	25	25	1.06	17	17	-4.81	-4.44	4.02	-8.46
25	25	Sacramento Kings	W	P	24	58	0.293	-3.97	26	26	1.26	18	18	-5.23	-2.56	1.96	-4.52
26	26	Minnesota Timberwolves	W	NW	17	65	0.207	-3.18	24	24	3.22	24	24	-6.40	-4.29	3.60	-7.89
27	27	Toronto Raptors	E	A	22	60	0.268	-1.00	19	19	6.07	30	30	-7.07	-1.60	8.43	-10.03
28	28	New Jersey Nets	E	A	24	58	0.293	-4.06	27	27	3.07	23	23	-7.13	-3.66	5.03	-8.69
29	29	Washington Wizards	E	SE	23	59	0.280	-4.72	28	28	3.25	26	26	-7.97	-4.98	4.80	-9.79
30	30	Cleveland Cavaliers	E	C	19	63	0.232	-5.08	29	29	4.68	28	28	-9.76	-6.42	2.18	-8.60
		HCA												3.43			3.43
		LgRtg												107.99			108.23

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.

This entry was posted on Friday, May 27th, 2011 at 9:26 am and is filed under BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

18 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Pre-Finals Schedule-Adjusted NBA Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings”

Neil Paine Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 9:27 am

Ken Pomeroy-ized:

		Full-Season			Post-Deadline
Rank	Team	adjOE	adjDE	Pyth	adjOE	adjDE	Pyth
1	Miami Heat	112.30	104.76	0.726	112.92	106.51	0.694
2	Chicago Bulls	108.65	101.80	0.713	109.72	102.42	0.724
3	Los Angeles Lakers	111.18	105.37	0.680	108.91	104.05	0.654
4	San Antonio Spurs	111.70	106.01	0.675	112.09	109.07	0.595
5	Dallas Mavericks	110.81	105.20	0.674	112.38	104.00	0.747
6	Boston Celtics	106.93	101.69	0.669	104.68	102.50	0.573
7	Orlando Magic	108.18	103.31	0.656	106.56	102.90	0.620
8	Denver Nuggets	112.14	107.64	0.640	110.57	102.40	0.746
9	Oklahoma City Thunder	111.78	107.64	0.629	113.44	106.53	0.707
10	Memphis Grizzlies	108.06	105.29	0.590	109.09	104.69	0.640
11	Houston Rockets	111.95	109.62	0.573	111.86	107.03	0.650
12	Portland Trail Blazers	109.47	107.77	0.555	111.44	107.47	0.624
13	New Orleans Hornets	107.07	106.10	0.532	108.95	111.05	0.434
14	Philadelphia 76ers	107.24	106.46	0.526	106.11	106.62	0.483
15	New York Knickerbockers	111.56	111.48	0.502	113.12	114.36	0.462
Rank	Team	adjOE	adjDE	Pyth	adjOE	adjDE	Pyth
16	Phoenix Suns	110.28	110.96	0.479	109.14	110.58	0.454
17	Atlanta Hawks	106.97	108.17	0.461	106.19	109.01	0.409
18	Milwaukee Bucks	102.15	103.47	0.455	101.99	104.08	0.429
19	Indiana Pacers	105.48	107.16	0.445	104.09	108.44	0.360
20	Utah Jazz	108.97	110.77	0.443	108.62	113.36	0.355
21	Golden State Warriors	108.91	111.22	0.427	109.90	110.62	0.477
22	Los Angeles Clippers	106.09	109.26	0.398	105.28	107.31	0.434
23	Detroit Pistons	108.62	113.12	0.362	111.60	116.88	0.344
24	Charlotte Bobcats	104.25	109.05	0.347	103.79	112.26	0.250
25	Sacramento Kings	104.02	109.25	0.335	105.67	110.19	0.357
26	Minnesota Timberwolves	104.81	111.21	0.304	103.94	111.84	0.264
27	Toronto Raptors	106.99	114.06	0.290	106.64	116.66	0.221
28	New Jersey Nets	103.93	111.06	0.283	104.57	113.26	0.246
29	Washington Wizards	103.27	111.24	0.261	103.25	113.03	0.220
30	Cleveland Cavaliers	102.91	112.66	0.220	101.81	110.42	0.243
	HCA			0.609			0.609

Anon Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 9:56 am
Seems like these ratings have been vindicated to some extent. I remember during the duldroms of the Heat season after lots of 'close' losses, they were rated in the top 3 and lots of people were questioning the ratings. The Heat also seem to vindicate the posts of whether the head-to-head record against a team is more predictive than the team's overall record.
Neil Paine Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 10:08 am
Heat have been doing a whole lot of vindicating this past month.
Anon Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 11:18 am
For example, take a look at the very first comment here, back in mid-February, when the Heat were ranked #1: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8856

"Why is Miami ahead of Boston when they have lost all three head-to-heads against them?

I mean, stats are great and all but stats are supposed to bear some relationship with reality."

The reality was that Miami was losing close to good teams and crushing bad teams. The post I will remember most is a very early post showing that crushing bad teams is in fact a much better predictor of success than close wins or losses versus good teams (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8159).
Ben Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 11:59 am
A little surprised that Dallas hasn't climbed the rankings more. I assume if you threw out the games without Dirk, they'd be up near Miami and Chicago.

It's funny that in such an up and down season, the Heat have been pretty steady in these rating.
Matt Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
It's funny that even Chicago at 71-27 has yet reach the 72 win mark posted by the '96 Bulls.
Bill Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
The Boston-Miami series was skewed some by Rondo's dislocated elbow. The playoff head-to-head lineups were very different from the regular season lineups.
huevonkiller Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
The post-deadline seems a little off.

If the Lakers suffered major injuries, and it seems they did with Pau's legs and Kobe's ankle against New Orleans, then LA's rating is disingenuous. Bryant took 5 attempts at the rim the entire dallas series and made 2 of them. San Antonio was also derailed by Manu's arm. That's the top two seeds right there. Probably has some domino effect on playoff ratings.
huevonkiller Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
#7

Miami's rotation got a bit better you mean, even when they were losing it was a toss-up series at worst.
Michael Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Interesting that Miami doesn't look so hot post-deadline, but I imagine that is entirely attributable to their 5-game losing streak to kick off the final stretch. Since then, well...27-5 in games the Big 3 played (1-1 without at least 1 of them). Beat a lot of good teams during that stretch too: LA, SA, Memphis, Atlanta, Denver, Boston, Chicago, Philly.
huevonkiller Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
A playoff rating would certainly be interesting, that's a more important cutoff point.
Bill Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
#9

No, I'm referring to the argument that head-to-head doesn't matter. It may not, but the Miami-Boston series is a disingenuous example. Boston had an arguable talent advantage in the regular season meetings that disappeared once Rondo was lost. It was no longer the same lineups going head to head.
Anon Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
"Boston had an arguable talent advantage in the regular season meetings that disappeared once Rondo was lost."

They went up 2-0 with a healthy Rondo playing...
huevonkiller Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
I'm more interested in how the Lakers had both of their superstars injured.
DSMok1 Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
I've posted my Pre-Finals Bayesian Power Ratings here: http://bit.ly/jKDy9s

I've got the Heat 0.8 points/100Poss better than the Mavs.
cort Says:
May 27th, 2011 at 7:31 pm
miami has gotten better as the season wore on and they learned to play together better. the return of haslem is a boost as well. i want dallas to win and like dirk, but haslem did a pretty good job on him in the 2006 Finals. he got up in him, played him rough and forced him to shoot quicker than he wanted to. intimidated him a bit, but i dont think he can do that this time around. dirk is playing his best and haslem is coming off injury.
now dirk is taking his time and not letting the defense dictate him into taking a quick shot, instead analyzing the situation and driving/posting more. i hope dirk takes it to haslem, but we will see what happens. james will probably guard him some at key moments too.
if dirk gets fair treatment from refs and doesnt let himself get rushed, he should be able to figure out how to beat either player with his size, body control and skill level. he is playing with more confidence and fire now than in 2006.
huevonkiller Says:
May 28th, 2011 at 8:24 am
Joel Anthony will be assigned to him, as will Bosh at some points.
Sean Says:
May 28th, 2011 at 8:45 am
Earlier in the season, Miami's power rating should NOT have been higher than Boston's. Boston was the better team. Miami BECAME better as the season wore on. If you look at the early season head to head---when Boston was better despite a lower power rating---the dynamic of their team was different. 2 of the first 3 matchups came within the 1st ten games of the season. Boston WAS better. I don't care what the power rating said. The reason(s) why that changed include Miami growing and becoming more cohesive and some OLD men in Boston experiencing attrition. If you look at the boxscores of the 1st two games, Shaq (WHO?!?) was playing 18-22 minutes per game and Pierce and Garnett and Allen were all playing 39-42 minutes per game. In the 2nd game (I think), Pierce scored ONE point. And Boston ROLLED. That's how good they were. That's how much BETTER they were than Miami at the time. The power ratings were NOT picking that up. That was a problem with the power ratings. Boston led by 15 points or so at each halftime of those 1st two games-----and by more than that after 3 Quarters of the 3rd game. They were SLAPPING Miami around. Shaq was out for the 3rd game, but Perkins was back. Neither contributed anything by season's end. By season's end, Miami was CLEARLY better.

Boston did NOT lose the playoff series because of Rondo's injury---though it did impact them to a degree. They lost because they were old and because Miami by season's end was just better. Miami evolved during the season while Boston decomposed. Probably around the time of their 3rd meeting, they were eye to eye, passing each other on the mall escalators-----Miami going UP, Boston going DOWN. Boston also never adjusted to the trade(s) Ainge made. He gambled and lost on what Shaq could contribute.

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