‘Black Holes’, Position-by-Position
17th February 2011
The chart on this post about non-passing guards was so popular, I decided to run it for players at all positions (minimum 30 MPG):
Posted in Data Dump, Statgeekery | 25 Comments »
Archive for the 'Statgeekery' Category
Layups: The ‘Black Hole Atlas’
15th February 2011
How in the cosmos did I miss this the first time around?
Two weeks ago, while I was busy with Super Bowl/Hall of Fame work at PFR, SBNation's Tom Ziller posted a story -- and an awesome graphic -- about the biggest "black holes" (players who never pass) in the NBA.
Posted in Analysis, Just For Fun, Layups, Statgeekery | 21 Comments »
How Telling Is a Team’s Record vs. Elite Teams?
14th February 2011
Despite their high overall marks, apparently neither the Lakers nor the Heat can beat the league's other so-called "elite" teams. Miami is just 6-9 this season against teams in the top 10 in W-L%, and 0-6 against top-5 teams. The Lakers are barely better, going 6-7 vs. top-10 squads and 2-6 against the top 5. Here's a summary of the other teams in the top 10 by either W-L% or point differential:
Posted in Analysis, History, Playoffs, Statgeekery | 41 Comments »
BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 11, 2011)
11th February 2011
2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 10, 2011:
Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off on BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 11, 2011)
Layups: Ken Pomeroy on Single-Game Plus-Minus
10th February 2011
Ken Pomeroy (of the outstanding college hoops stat site Kenpom.com) ran an interesting simulation last month with regard to the randomness inherent in single-game plus-minus scores:
A treatise on plus/minus - the kenpom.com blog
According to Ken's simulation, a player with precisely average "true +/- skill" can show up with wildly variant observed +/- values over the course of a game, or even 20 games.
Just for fun, I re-ran this experiment for ten thousand games, tracking the observed +/- impact of the player through various checkpoints. Here were the results:
| #Sims | On | Off | MOV | per40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.00 | -17.00 | -12.00 | 44.00 |
| 10 | 0.70 | -2.60 | -1.90 | 6.60 |
| 100 | 0.49 | -0.85 | -0.36 | 2.68 |
| 500 | -0.39 | -1.02 | -1.41 | 1.26 |
| 1000 | -0.16 | -0.46 | -0.61 | 0.60 |
| 5000 | -0.06 | 0.10 | 0.04 | -0.31 |
| 10000 | -0.13 | 0.12 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
Even after 10,000 games, a massive sample that would never be possible to achieve in real life, our perfectly average "player" appears to be a half-point per 40 min worse than average by raw on/off-court plus minus. As Ken says, "respect randomness"!
Posted in Analysis, Layups, Statgeekery | 3 Comments »
2011 APBRmetric All-Stars
9th February 2011
Just as we did last season, let's take a look at which players would have made the All-Star teams if various advanced stats were the only criteria in the voting. To pick teams, I used the official positional designations from the 2011 ballot; each team must have 4 guards, 4 forwards, and 2 centers, with room for 2 wild cards from any position to fill out the roster. Players in bold are starters; "*" designates the player as a member of the real-life All-Star team.
Posted in All-Star Game, Analysis, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 142 Comments »
BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 4, 2011)
4th February 2011
2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 3, 2011:
Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 14 Comments »
Team W-L Record in Games as a Leading Scorer
3rd February 2011
This post is a major data dump, and really more for trivia purposes than anything else. But I put together a list of every player who led an NBA team in scoring in a regular-season game from 1987-2011, along with their PPG in those team-leading games, and the team's W-L record in those games (for the full list of players, click here). Here were the 50 players with the most games as a leading scorer:
Posted in Data Dump, History, Statgeekery, Totally Useless, Trivia | 8 Comments »
Layups: Check Out These College Basketball Resources
1st February 2011
It's February now, and with the NCAA Tournament starting in 42 days, you probably need to study up on college basketball.
That means it's time for my annual plug of Ken Pomeroy's amazing NCAA advanced stats site. It serves as a great companion to our own College Basketball at S-R site, where you can grab the conventional numbers and get a big dose of NCAA history.
Together, those two sites should serve as vital weaponry in your bracket battles next month.
Posted in Layups, NCAA, Statgeekery | 1 Comment »
BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (January 28, 2011)
28th January 2011
2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on January 27, 2011:
Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off on BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (January 28, 2011)