Mailbag: Last-Place Teams Who Beat the League’s Best
Posted by Neil Paine on April 6, 2011
Longtime BBR reader Imadogg had a great observation/question last Wednesday:
"Last night, the last place Cavs beat the Greatest Team Ever Assembled, the Miami Heat. That means this year, the Cavaliers have defeated the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, and Miami Heat... 3 of the top 6 teams in the league (record-wise, as of now), and the current 2, 2, and 3 seeds.
When was the last time this happened, that the last place team in the entire league defeated half of the top 6 teams in a single season? Maybe it happens more often than I think, but I'd be surprised."
I was finally able to research this today. First, I searched for teams ranked last (or tied for last) in the NBA in WPct. Then, I searched for teams ranked in the top 6 (again, with ties) in WPct, and counted how many different times those teams had been beaten by the last-place teams. Here's every instance in NBA history where a last-place team by WPct beat at least 3 of the top 6 teams by WPct:
| Last-Place Team | Record | WPct | Lg Tms | Top 6 (& ties) Beaten | Pct of Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952 Milwaukee Hawks | 17-49 | 0.258 | 10 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| 1953 Philadelphia Warriors | 12-57 | 0.174 | 10 | 3 of 6 | 50% |
| 1954 Baltimore Bullets | 16-56 | 0.222 | 9 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1955 Milwaukee Hawks | 26-46 | 0.361 | 8 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| 1956 Rochester Royals | 31-41 | 0.431 | 8 | 7 of 7 | 100% |
| 1957 Rochester Royals | 31-41 | 0.431 | 8 | 7 of 7 | 100% |
| 1958 Minneapolis Lakers | 19-53 | 0.264 | 8 | 6 of 7 | 86% |
| 1959 Cincinnati Royals | 19-53 | 0.264 | 8 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| 1960 Cincinnati Royals | 19-56 | 0.253 | 8 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1961 New York Knicks | 21-58 | 0.266 | 8 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| 1962 Chicago Packers | 18-62 | 0.225 | 9 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1963 New York Knicks | 21-59 | 0.263 | 9 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| 1964 New York Knicks | 22-58 | 0.275 | 9 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| 1965 San Francisco Warriors | 17-63 | 0.213 | 9 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1966 Detroit Pistons | 22-58 | 0.275 | 9 | 6 of 6 | 100% |
| Last-Place Team | Record | WPct | Lg Tms | Top 6 (& ties) Beaten | Pct of Top 6 |
| 1967 Baltimore Bullets | 20-61 | 0.247 | 10 | 7 of 7 | 100% |
| 1968 San Diego Rockets | 15-67 | 0.183 | 12 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1970 San Diego Rockets | 27-55 | 0.329 | 14 | 4 of 6 | 67% |
| 1973 Philadelphia 76ers | 9-73 | 0.110 | 17 | 3 of 6 | 50% |
| 1974 Philadelphia 76ers | 25-57 | 0.305 | 17 | 5 of 7 | 71% |
| 1976 Chicago Bulls | 24-58 | 0.293 | 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% |
| 1977 New York Nets | 22-60 | 0.268 | 22 | 4 of 6 | 67% |
| 1978 New Jersey Nets | 24-58 | 0.293 | 22 | 3 of 6 | 50% |
| 1979 New Orleans Jazz | 26-56 | 0.317 | 22 | 6 of 9 | 67% |
| 1984 Indiana Pacers | 26-56 | 0.317 | 23 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1985 Indiana Pacers | 22-60 | 0.268 | 23 | 5 of 6 | 83% |
| 1986 New York Knicks | 23-59 | 0.280 | 23 | 3 of 6 | 50% |
| 2002 Golden State Warriors | 21-61 | 0.256 | 29 | 4 of 7 | 57% |
| 2011 Cleveland Cavaliers | 16-61 | 0.208 | 30 | 3 of 6 | 50% |
Lo and behold, the 2011 Cavaliers are indeed on the list.
Notice how much harder this feat is to pull off now than in the NBA's early days, simply because the league has expanded so much. In the late 1950s, with an 8-team league, "top-6 teams" almost overlapped with "last-place teams". But the 2011 Cavs are the first team to do it in the 30-team era, and just the second in the last 25 seasons. So even in what has been a miserable season for Cleveland, they can take credit for this positive -- and rare -- accomplishment.
April 6th, 2011 at 11:45 am
They beat the Lakers after losing by 55 earlier in the season. That was far more impressive.
Still it is a matter of sample size to me, the Cavs don't have some intrinsic advantage against elite teams.
April 6th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Very interesting. Although the Cavs have the worst record in the league they have taken down the most elite teams. I look foward to reading your next entry!
April 6th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
They also split their wins pre-Baron trade and post-Baron trade, so it's not like there's some key personnel issue going on here. I'd guess a mix of opponent apathy and sheer unpredictability may help.
April 6th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
I can't help but think opponents overlooking the Cavs is involved here. The losing streak and the team dropping to the bottom of the league was a national story for weeks. If players and coaches prepared more for other contests it would be understandable, not that I've heard any quotes to that effect.
April 6th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
4th hardest SOS. Practice helps . . .
April 6th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
Thanks for the research Neil... wow, the worst record of all time had 33% of it's wins against 3 of the top 6 teams haha. Now that's crazy.
April 6th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
I appreciate Neil taking the time to research this but the Cavs only have a 1/2 game "lead" on the T-Wolves for the worst record. So they may not end up as the worst team in the league. Which would render this whole exercise pointless.
April 6th, 2011 at 7:51 pm
To Ed's point, are the Win% calculated at the time of the game or season-to-date (which would be season-end for all but this year)? That seems to matter, since these numbers could jostle. A team may have beat an elite team mid-year only to have that team fall from their lofty perch. Naturally, that would make us cast doubt of considering them to be of elite status, but if their fall from grace was a function of injuries, it might muddy the waters a bit. Of course, any wins in the early part of the year would be equally invalid. I guess the point is that the only appropriate way to do this would be to look at end-of-year Win%, to which the Cavs are yet to necessarily achieve this.
April 7th, 2011 at 3:23 am
Imadogg, you might find it less crazy if you say that the worst record of all time got one third of their wins against the top third of teams...
April 7th, 2011 at 8:51 am
This study of course begs the question: What teams finished with the best record and managed to lose to several of the worst teams?
I nominate the 1985-86 Celtics, that dominant Walton-backed team which cruised to a 67-15 record. Among their 15 losses, they were beaten by the 5 worst teams in the East, and twice to NJ.
Their 15 losses came to teams averaging 38.6 wins. Avg SRS of -1.0 .
Now these studies based on W-L records are kind of dodgy, in that a terrible team that manages to beat some great teams may improve their record to where they aren't the 'worst' team that year.
What about a really big data dump that simply compares all team/opponent SRS and finds the least predictable results in a team's schedule? That is, the greatest average difference between expected and actual results. This would obviate the discrepancies of league size, W% vs SRS, etc.
Maybe middling teams would have the most unpredictable results. More likely, those with great home/away disparity. I still go with the '86 Celts.
April 7th, 2011 at 11:22 am
All you need is the heart of a Champion!!! You can defeat anybody.
http://soundcloud.com/reggiev/champion
April 7th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
They also beat the Knicks 3 times.
April 8th, 2011 at 9:45 am
to be fair, that was before Carmelo learned how to play defense for one game.
April 8th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
You'd lose a good chunk of your results, but I think the gist of the question would be better phrased by 'How often has the worst team (by however you define worst) beaten a team in the top 1/5th of the league?'
I think it is amusing though that from 56-58, any team that the last place team beat would have been in 'the top 6'.
April 8th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Bulls are next.
The Cavs are underperforming. They have Jamison and Williams.