2010 Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Orlando vs. Boston
Posted by Neil Paine on May 14, 2010
2010 Playoffs Home ▪ 2010 Playoff Previews
2. Orlando Magic
Coach: Stan Van Gundy
SRS: 7.12 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.0 (18th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.4 (4th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.3 (3rd of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Atlanta Hawks
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Charlotte Bobcats
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 0.536 | 2 | 0.136 | 17 | 0.246 | 25 | 0.246 | 7 |
| Orlando Magic - Opp | 0.477 | 1 | 0.122 | 26 | 0.226 | 1 | 0.205 | 3 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Lewis | 30 | 82 | SF | 110.7 | 18.3 | 104.1 | 0.51 | 15.5 | 47.6 | 39.7 | 80.6 | 7.4 | 13.0 | -1.55 | 22.4 | 52.5 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Vince Carter | 33 | 79 | SG | 112.1 | 24.2 | 105.3 | -0.37 | 19.5 | 45.6 | 36.7 | 84.0 | 17.8 | 9.9 | 2.22 | 30.1 | 31.9 | 1.7 | 12.6 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Jameer Nelson | 27 | 72 | PG | 109.8 | 23.3 | 106.1 | -1.21 | 16.0 | 48.1 | 38.1 | 84.5 | 32.1 | 16.8 | 5.18 | 16.4 | 32.0 | 1.7 | 10.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Dwight Howard | 24 | 83 | C | 113.4 | 24.6 | 95.3 | 6.01 | 19.2 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 59.2 | 8.7 | 20.5 | -6.26 | 97.8 | 0.8 | 12.0 | 31.3 | 6.0 | 1.4 |
| Matt Barnes | 29 | 79 | SF | 111.2 | 16.4 | 102.8 | 1.27 | 12.4 | 58.6 | 31.9 | 74.0 | 10.1 | 17.0 | -1.08 | 26.2 | 37.2 | 6.1 | 18.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Mickael Pietrus | 27 | 78 | SG | 105.8 | 16.8 | 104.0 | 0.33 | 14.0 | 50.2 | 37.9 | 63.3 | 4.7 | 12.7 | -2.15 | 20.2 | 56.8 | 2.8 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Marcin Gortat | 25 | 84 | PF | 112.7 | 13.6 | 99.3 | 3.71 | 9.8 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 2.4 | 16.2 | -3.19 | 33.0 | 1.3 | 11.5 | 24.3 | 4.8 | 0.8 |
| Jason Williams | 34 | 73 | PG | 114.6 | 15.6 | 106.2 | -1.08 | 10.5 | 51.2 | 38.0 | 75.6 | 26.9 | 17.1 | 6.56 | 9.6 | 51.9 | 0.5 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| J.J. Redick | 25 | 76 | SG | 123.2 | 17.7 | 107.6 | -1.23 | 15.8 | 47.3 | 40.5 | 86.0 | 13.9 | 10.3 | 2.34 | 40.1 | 49.5 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Ryan Anderson | 21 | 82 | PF | 111.8 | 23.5 | 103.3 | -0.97 | 19.4 | 51.4 | 37.0 | 86.6 | 7.1 | 13.6 | -3.44 | 21.1 | 54.4 | 9.2 | 16.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Brandon Bass | 24 | 80 | PF | 111.7 | 20.4 | 103.6 | -0.02 | 16.2 | 51.1 | 0.0 | 82.5 | 5.1 | 12.2 | -2.83 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| A. Johnson | 35 | 75 | PG | 109.8 | 17.8 | 105.6 | -1.07 | 11.6 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 95.0 | 24.2 | 18.8 | 3.94 | 18.0 | 35.1 | 2.4 | 11.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
4. Boston Celtics
Coach: Doc Rivers
SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.8 (5th of 30)
How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus Cleveland Cavaliers
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Miami Heat
| Team | eFG% | Rank | TOV% | Rank | ORB% | Rank | FT/FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 0.522 | 5 | 0.145 | 27 | 0.228 | 28 | 0.248 | 6 |
| Boston Celtics - Opp | 0.487 | 9 | 0.149 | 2 | 0.262 | 12 | 0.251 | 24 |
Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):
| Player | Ag | Ht | Ps | ORtg | %P | DRtg | DPA | P36 | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | AR | TR | PR | Fr | 3t | OR% | DR% | Bk% | St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | 23 | 73 | PG | 111.0 | 23.0 | 103.0 | 0.93 | 13.6 | 53.6 | 21.3 | 62.1 | 43.7 | 18.9 | 9.56 | 31.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 10.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| Ray Allen | 34 | 77 | SG | 114.6 | 19.1 | 107.7 | -0.99 | 16.9 | 55.6 | 36.3 | 91.3 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 0.39 | 26.0 | 41.0 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Paul Pierce | 32 | 78 | SF | 114.0 | 23.0 | 104.8 | 0.32 | 19.6 | 49.7 | 41.4 | 85.2 | 15.1 | 15.7 | -0.86 | 49.9 | 30.3 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Kevin Garnett | 33 | 83 | PF | 112.4 | 21.5 | 101.0 | 2.01 | 17.5 | 52.3 | 20.0 | 83.7 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 1.08 | 28.6 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 24.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| K. Perkins | 25 | 82 | C | 105.2 | 17.8 | 101.5 | 2.85 | 13.4 | 60.5 | 0.0 | 58.2 | 6.0 | 22.6 | -5.18 | 53.6 | 0.6 | 9.1 | 24.4 | 4.8 | 0.6 |
| Glen Davis | 24 | 81 | PF | 103.2 | 20.4 | 105.9 | -0.18 | 13.3 | 44.4 | 0.0 | 69.6 | 5.9 | 14.6 | -3.18 | 49.5 | 1.4 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Tony Allen | 28 | 76 | SG | 101.1 | 20.1 | 100.9 | 1.62 | 13.5 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 60.5 | 13.0 | 19.4 | -2.02 | 47.0 | 2.0 | 7.4 | 12.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| R. Wallace | 35 | 82 | PF | 100.0 | 18.9 | 100.5 | 2.68 | 14.5 | 51.1 | 28.3 | 76.8 | 7.3 | 9.8 | -0.54 | 19.2 | 44.6 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Michael Finley | 36 | 79 | SG | 104.0 | 13.1 | 108.1 | -1.44 | 10.4 | 48.0 | 39.0 | 53.3 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 1.08 | 8.2 | 44.6 | 1.0 | 10.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| S. Williams | 26 | 81 | PF | 117.8 | 15.8 | 103.0 | 1.96 | 12.3 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 76.5 | 5.3 | 16.7 | -2.68 | 81.0 | 0.8 | 9.9 | 19.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| Nate Robinson | 25 | 69 | PG | 107.3 | 24.3 | 109.9 | -2.07 | 18.2 | 47.4 | 39.0 | 74.6 | 24.9 | 13.9 | 3.20 | 13.6 | 45.2 | 2.9 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Marquis Daniels | 29 | 78 | SG | 101.6 | 15.6 | 107.1 | -0.90 | 11.2 | 53.4 | 21.4 | 60.7 | 11.1 | 15.0 | 0.21 | 22.5 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 8.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Season Series
| Picks | Most Likely | Second Opinion |
|---|---|---|
| SPM "True Skill" Projection says: | Magic in 7 | Magic in 5 |
| SRS says: | Magic in 5 | Magic in 7 |
| I say: | Magic in 6 | Magic in 7 |
May 14th, 2010 at 11:34 am
The schedule looks harsh for the old guys, but the 2 games the Celtics lost vs the Cavs were the ones they had 3 days off for. The wins all came after 1 day off.
May 14th, 2010 at 11:41 am
I amended the schedule, they actually have the extra 2 days off between Games 2 & 3:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_Playoffs#Conference_Finals:_.282.29_Orlando_Magic_vs._.284.29_Boston_Celtics
May 14th, 2010 at 11:53 am
Celts will win; they nearly beat Orlando last year without KG! They are peaking at the right time; the big 3 is healthy and playing well, Rondo is better than ever (he will destroy Nelson), and th bench is better too. I have the Celts going all the way now...
PS Rajon Rondo, 2010 finals MVP; you heard it here first!
May 14th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
Personally, I would love to see that. And if the Celts had shown more in the season series w/ Orlando, I'd be more inclined to agree. But the Magic are really, really good, probably the best team in the league. I think they're the odds-on favorites to win the championship right now.
May 14th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
This series will come down to team rebounding and the head to head point guard battle. If the Celts can defend the Nelson / Dwight and Nelson / Lewis pick and roll, and Garnett outplays Lewis in that weird two way mismatch, they can get it done.
May 14th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
The question with the Celts has always been, "are they healthy?" If they are, and they certainly appear to be now, they have the best starting 5 in the game (and the bench is improved too). This looks like the team that started 23-5, not the one that ended 17-17
Also, Boston matches up very, very well with Orlando. If only they hadn't traded away Eddie House...
May 14th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
PS Orlando beat up on some really weak teams in the first 2 rounds; Bobcats were just happy to be there, Hawks couldn't defend anybody, nearly lost to depleted Bucks
May 14th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Statistical Plus/Minus + Weighted minutes played projection:
ORL vs BOS
4 to 0 14.8%
4 to 1 28.0%
4 to 2 18.0%
4 to 3 19.2%
3 to 4 6.7%
2 to 4 8.5%
1 to 4 3.2%
0 to 4 1.6%
Margin
9.55 5.24
ORL BOS
80.0% 20.0%
Orlando in 5 is the estimate here. Orlando looks to be the best team in the league right now, by a 1.5 pt. margin.
BTW: even after the fact, the Boston demolition of Cleveland looks like it was pretty unlikely.
May 14th, 2010 at 5:05 pm
Boston is a different team when Garnett plays this well. It's a little like the '95 Rockets where Clyde suddenly turned back into Clyde and they destroyed expectations.
May 15th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
"I have the Celts going all the way now..."
"I think [the Magic are] the odds-on favorites to win the championship right now."
Bookmarked! I'm going to enjoy returning here to scrape up these quotes after the Lakers win their repeat championship in June. That said, the Orlando-Celtics series should be entertaining. You should write a post about Vince Carter's playoff performances.
Cheers!
May 16th, 2010 at 3:24 am
You'll come back just in case they don't, too, right?
May 16th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
Is anybody surprised?
May 16th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
Who knows with these Celtics anymore... I've seen them dominate teams they weren't even supposed to beat, lose to teams they were supposed to dominate, and blow 20-point leads against every type of team. Nothing would surprise me at this point.
May 16th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
Even the 08 team was like this; remember how bad they looked against the Hawks in the first round? This team is potentially better, because Rondo is so much better (and Perk and Davis)
May 16th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
That is true, and the complaint then was that they couldn't win a road playoff game. But what was different was that the regular-season version was one of the most dominant teams of all time, so they had proven for at least 82 games what they were capable of. This year's team has proven it for maybe 40 games, including this afternoon's.
May 17th, 2010 at 11:28 am
What did Tony Allen do to ESPN? That ridiculous one-handed alley-oop didn't make the top 10, didn't even make the game recap
May 17th, 2010 at 11:33 am
Neil, do you think more weight should be given to a team's playoff performance than regular performance (on a per game basis anyway), because the playoffs basically guarantee a tougher strength of schedule?
This Celtics team is sort of reminding me of the 2001 Lakers. They aren't as dominant obviously as a regular season squad or a playoff squad, but at this point it seems clear that they were hampered by injuries and then holding back to get healthy in the second half of the reg season. So, like the Lakers, I think when we talk about upsets and such regarding this team, we need to look more to their playoff performances than to their regular season performances.