Archive for the 'General' Category

Sports Reference's New Blog: Stathead

I have to admit that I find it very hard to follow all of the great research that people people are producing every day on the web. It's hard enough just checking the two or three largest sites, but when you add in team blogs, other stathead blogs and everything else, it becomes impossible. This doesn't even include trying to locate recent research in hockey, baseball, football and soccer.

So we've decided to do something about it. Every weekday, the Stathead blog will summarize the best research-related studies, news, conferences, and resources for baseball, basketball, football, hockey and soccer.

The blog will primarily be edited by Neil Paine and will typically feature 20-30 links to analytic content around the internet. We've been working out the format over the last two weeks, and we think you'll soon appreciate our concise summaries for all of the articles we write about.

Feedback as always is welcome.

We've all heard about Lorenzen Wright's tragic death by now, and even worse the fact that investigators suspect foul play. By all accounts, Wright was a great guy, one of those pro athletes who truly cared about the fans and the city he played in. But I've been struggling to eulogize his career, because at the NBA level it didn't quite live up to expectations -- as the #7 pick in the '96 draft, Wright turned out to be an average player at best, eventually settling into a part-time starter/backup role for most of his career. That said, though, Wright was unquestionably a good defender, ranking 12th in defensive rating among qualified power forwards during his stint in Memphis:

Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday, I had the distinct honor and privilege of attending the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, where a virtual "who's who" of basketball analysts were on hand to listen to panelists that ranged from Daryl Morey, Mark Cuban, and Kevin Pritchard to John Hollinger, Dean Oliver, and even Bill Simmons. It was such a great experience and a thrill to meet many of my fellow APBRmetricians, so here are some of my hoops-related impressions from the conference:

Read the rest of this entry »

There's a surprising name atop the Southeast Division these days, and it's the Miami Heat, winners of 3 straight and 6 of their first 7 games. How have they been doing it? Well, with Dwyane Wade powering the attack (via 31.8 pace-adjusted P/40) you might think they were an offensive team, but it's actually been their 3rd-ranked defense that's staking Miami to the hot start. After the jump, check out the box score-based defensive stats for the Heat so far (league average pts/possession = 105.9):

Read the rest of this entry »

Today at ESPN, J.A. Adande wondered if Kobe Bryant is playing better now than ever before, ultimately concluding that if not, then he's doing a pretty darned good approximation of his peak. Well, that's a sentiment I can agree with -- Kobe Bryant is nothing if not mega-consistent, and this year he's defying both the aging curve and the natural complacency you'd expect from someone who just won his 4th title. Take a look at his career numbers, adjusted for pace (after the jump):

Read the rest of this entry »

The b-ball blogosphere has been full of Kevin Durant chatter this weekend, after Wayne Winston criticized the young Thunder star for his poor adjusted plus/minus numbers. TrueHoop's Henry Abbott called Durant's rather pitiful APM performance to date (it was -8.62 last year, which is just ridiculously awful) a "conundrum", and there's really no other way to frame the situation than to say that apparently Durant's on-court impact is not matching that which you'd expect from his gaudy box score stats or his considerable basketball talent. In other words, he should have a better APM than he does.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Paul's new children's book, "Long Shot: Never Too Small to Dream Big," is about how a young CP3 was able to overcome his short stature to become an NBA superstar. It's a feel-good story for the whole family, I'm sure, but it also begs the question: where does Paul stand among the great small guards of all time?

Read the rest of this entry »

Here's a fun Friday data dump: Since 1968 (the advent of the modern 82-game schedule), which team assembled the most experienced roster? How about the least experienced roster?

Read the rest of this entry »

Last time around, we ran a study using a system of estimating Win Shares in seasons prior to 1978, and I wanted to touch a little on how that was done. Basically, I ran an OLS regression on all pre-1978 players, based on player stats (plus age & height) from 1978-2007, that estimated their "missing" totals -- turnovers prior to '78, TO/BLK/STL prior to 1974, etc. Whenever team stats were available, I scaled up/down the individual numbers to match team totals. When team numbers weren't available, I had to estimate them as well using the same method, and then makle sure the individuals matched the teams. In other words, the team numbers always superceded the individual totals.

Read the rest of this entry »

No, that title shouldn't be interpreted as a particularly butchered way of writing "The 223 Club"... It's about guys who made at least 220 3-point field goals in a single season.

Read the rest of this entry »