BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 31, 2010)
Posted by Neil Paine on December 31, 2010
2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on December 30, 2010:
| Rank | Prev | Team | W | L | WPct | Offense | Rk | Prv | Defense | Rk | Prv | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Miami Heat | 25 | 9 | 0.735 | 4.42 | 5 | 5 | -5.32 | 3 | 3 | 9.74 |
| 2 | 1 | Boston Celtics | 24 | 6 | 0.800 | 2.32 | 10 | 10 | -6.48 | 2 | 2 | 8.80 |
| 3 | 3 | San Antonio Spurs | 28 | 4 | 0.875 | 5.36 | 2 | 1 | -2.42 | 9 | 11 | 7.78 |
| 4 | 5 | Los Angeles Lakers | 22 | 10 | 0.688 | 4.53 | 4 | 3 | -1.47 | 11 | 12 | 5.99 |
| 5 | 4 | Dallas Mavericks | 24 | 7 | 0.774 | 1.64 | 11 | 11 | -4.25 | 5 | 6 | 5.89 |
| 6 | 6 | Chicago Bulls | 20 | 10 | 0.667 | -1.63 | 19 | 16 | -7.09 | 1 | 1 | 5.45 |
| 7 | 8 | Orlando Magic | 21 | 12 | 0.636 | 0.42 | 14 | 15 | -4.13 | 6 | 7 | 4.55 |
| 8 | 7 | Utah Jazz | 22 | 11 | 0.667 | 3.33 | 8 | 6 | 0.20 | 15 | 15 | 3.13 |
| 9 | 10 | Denver Nuggets | 18 | 13 | 0.581 | 4.72 | 3 | 4 | 2.02 | 19 | 20 | 2.70 |
| 10 | 11 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 22 | 11 | 0.667 | 3.20 | 9 | 9 | 1.05 | 17 | 18 | 2.15 |
| 11 | 9 | New Orleans Hornets | 18 | 14 | 0.563 | -2.24 | 22 | 19 | -4.03 | 7 | 4 | 1.79 |
| 12 | 14 | Atlanta Hawks | 21 | 13 | 0.618 | 0.89 | 12 | 13 | -0.61 | 14 | 14 | 1.49 |
| 13 | 12 | Houston Rockets | 15 | 16 | 0.484 | 3.78 | 6 | 7 | 2.65 | 22 | 21 | 1.14 |
| 14 | 13 | Portland Trail Blazers | 17 | 16 | 0.515 | 0.16 | 15 | 14 | -0.68 | 13 | 13 | 0.85 |
| 15 | 16 | New York Knickerbockers | 18 | 14 | 0.563 | 3.49 | 7 | 8 | 3.32 | 25 | 25 | 0.17 |
| Rank | Prev | Team | W | L | WPct | Offense | Rk | Prv | Defense | Rk | Prv | Overall |
| 16 | 20 | Memphis Grizzlies | 14 | 18 | 0.438 | -2.40 | 23 | 21 | -2.17 | 10 | 9 | -0.22 |
| 17 | 19 | Philadelphia 76ers | 13 | 19 | 0.406 | -1.31 | 18 | 20 | -0.94 | 12 | 10 | -0.36 |
| 18 | 15 | Indiana Pacers | 13 | 17 | 0.433 | -3.98 | 25 | 24 | -2.85 | 8 | 8 | -1.13 |
| 19 | 18 | Phoenix Suns | 13 | 17 | 0.433 | 5.75 | 1 | 2 | 6.96 | 30 | 30 | -1.20 |
| 20 | 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | 12 | 18 | 0.400 | -5.89 | 29 | 28 | -4.54 | 4 | 5 | -1.35 |
| 21 | 22 | Golden State Warriors | 12 | 19 | 0.387 | -0.39 | 16 | 17 | 3.28 | 24 | 24 | -3.68 |
| 22 | 23 | Toronto Raptors | 11 | 20 | 0.355 | 0.52 | 13 | 12 | 4.49 | 29 | 29 | -3.97 |
| 23 | 21 | Los Angeles Clippers | 10 | 23 | 0.303 | -2.19 | 21 | 23 | 2.14 | 20 | 19 | -4.33 |
| 24 | 25 | Detroit Pistons | 11 | 21 | 0.344 | -0.60 | 17 | 18 | 4.12 | 26 | 28 | -4.72 |
| 25 | 24 | New Jersey Nets | 9 | 23 | 0.281 | -4.35 | 26 | 26 | 1.23 | 18 | 17 | -5.58 |
| 26 | 27 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 8 | 25 | 0.242 | -1.66 | 20 | 22 | 4.29 | 28 | 27 | -5.95 |
| 27 | 26 | Charlotte Bobcats | 11 | 19 | 0.367 | -5.25 | 28 | 29 | 0.71 | 16 | 16 | -5.97 |
| 28 | 28 | Washington Wizards | 8 | 22 | 0.267 | -3.79 | 24 | 25 | 2.20 | 21 | 23 | -5.99 |
| 29 | 30 | Sacramento Kings | 6 | 23 | 0.207 | -5.93 | 30 | 30 | 2.96 | 23 | 22 | -8.89 |
| 30 | 29 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 8 | 24 | 0.250 | -4.98 | 27 | 27 | 4.21 | 27 | 26 | -9.20 |
| HCA | 3.47 | |||||||||||
| LgRtg | 107.20 |
To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.
December 31st, 2010 at 10:00 am
Btw, minimizing the margin in the ratings like DSMOk suggested last week actually didn't change them at all:
This was using an exponent of 2... I didn't have time to re-arrange the spreadsheet so that I wasn't raising a negative # to the 1.5 power.
December 31st, 2010 at 11:01 am
Come the end of each season, what is the percent chance a team will win a championship based on their position in this ranking?
December 31st, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Re: #2 - Steps to determine this:
1. Regress to end-of-season ratings by adding 413 possessions of rating 0.00
2. Convert eff. diff. ratings to SRS by multiplying by 92.53/100
3. Convert SRS to WPct using WPct = 0.51419884 + 0.035212338*SRS + 0.00000026073081*SRS^5 + 0.000052608571*SRS^4 - 0.000039551538*SRS^3 - 0.00000035817527*SRS^6 - 0.0021272644*SRS^2
4. Determine stdev of NBA talent = 0.144 (reference)
5. Estimate each team's true wpct talent using (0.5 / 0.144^2 + wpct / stdev^2)/(1 / 0.144^2 + 1 / stdev^2), where stdev = (SQRT((wins + losses) * wpct * (1 - wpct))) / (wins + losses)
6. Simulate rest of season 1000 times using talent estimates
The results:
December 31st, 2010 at 9:34 pm
In the West, Spurs say, "get behind me, devil." The other storyline is the delayed emergence of a legit fourth place - surely Utah OKC or Denver will move up from the pack and closer to the top teams.
Not too early for me to say since I don't care much about the East - we probably have our four home court teams and the rest of the season is about five through eight and who gets what spot.