Playoff Preview: #1 San Antonio vs. #8 Memphis
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
San Antonio Spurs
61-21, 1st in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Gregg Popovich (61-21)
PTS/G: 103.7 (6th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 98.0 (14th of 30)
SRS: 5.86 (4th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.3 (14th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.8 (2nd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.6 (11th of 30)
Expected W-L: 56-26 (6th of 30)
Arena: AT&T Center ▪ Attendance: 750,879 (12th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Tony Parker | 78 | 2528 | 2.70 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.156 | 20.4 |
| SG | Manu Ginobili | 80 | 2426 | 6.51 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 0.195 | 21.7 |
| SF | Richard Jefferson | 81 | 2459 | -0.67 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.115 | 12.4 |
| PF | Tim Duncan | 76 | 2156 | 2.26 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 0.171 | 21.9 |
| C | Antonio McDyess | 73 | 1386 | -1.31 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.105 | 12.8 |
| PG | George Hill | 76 | 2148 | 0.58 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.136 | 14.6 |
| C | DeJuan Blair | 81 | 1734 | 2.26 | -0.9 | -0.7 | 0.132 | 17.1 |
| SG | Gary Neal | 80 | 1685 | -0.76 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 0.100 | 13.2 |
| PF | Matt Bonner | 66 | 1432 | 0.54 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 0.147 | 13.5 |
| SF | James Anderson | 26 | 286 | -5.38 | -1.9 | -1.8 | 0.051 | 8.5 |
| C | Tiago Splitter | 60 | 738 | 0.19 | -1.2 | -1.1 | 0.149 | 16.0 |
| PG | Chris Quinn | 41 | 292 | -5.77 | -1.2 | -0.3 | 0.024 | 7.5 |
| SF | Steve Novak | 30 | 215 | 0.91 | -1.3 | -2.9 | 0.196 | 17.8 |
| SF | Danny Green | 8 | 92 | -1.64 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.076 | 13.2 |
Memphis Grizzlies
46-36, 3rd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Lionel Hollins (46-36)
PTS/G: 99.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (13th of 30)
SRS: 2.55 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.9 (15th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.6 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.1 (9th of 30)
Expected W-L: 48-34 (10th of 30)
Arena: FedExForum ▪ Attendance: 600,507 (27th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Mike Conley | 81 | 2872 | 2.47 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.111 | 15.8 |
| SG | Tony Allen | 72 | 1494 | 4.23 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.152 | 18.3 |
| SF | Sam Young | 78 | 1577 | -1.98 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 0.088 | 12.5 |
| PF | Zach Randolph | 75 | 2724 | 3.14 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.185 | 22.6 |
| C | Marc Gasol | 81 | 2586 | 1.36 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 0.146 | 16.8 |
| SF | Shane Battier | 82 | 2375 | 0.02 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 0.103 | 12.3 |
| SG | O.J. Mayo | 71 | 1869 | -1.39 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.062 | 12.6 |
| PF | Darrell Arthur | 80 | 1609 | -0.73 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 0.113 | 15.7 |
| PG | Jason Williams | 27 | 295 | -4.16 | 0.8 | -1.2 | 0.031 | 8.4 |
| C | Hamed Haddadi | 31 | 168 | -0.51 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.164 | 19.7 |
| PG | Greivis Vasquez | 70 | 860 | -4.51 | -2.0 | -1.4 | 0.030 | 9.4 |
| SG | Xavier Henry | 38 | 527 | -7.48 | -1.5 | -0.7 | 0.021 | 7.0 |
| PG | Ishmael Smith | 43 | 442 | -5.81 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.016 | 7.6 |
| PF | Leon Powe | 30 | 328 | -2.33 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 0.090 | 15.0 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | SAS | MEM | Prob | Games | SAS | MEM | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.4% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20.5% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 19.7% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18.6% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 17.8% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 13.3% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 12.8% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 12.9% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 10.1% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11.6% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 8.0% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 11.5% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 4.1% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7.1% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 2.1% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4.5% | |
| SAS | 75.7% | SAS | 47.5% | |||||
| MEM | 24.3% | MEM | 52.5% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 15th, 2011 at 11:26 am
Those post-deadline percentages are le crazy! Very cool insight there, especially with the swings in HCA and # of games.
April 15th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Yeah, that is pretty crazy.
April 15th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
What changed to make Memphis more favored post-deadline?
April 15th, 2011 at 3:45 pm
Memphis played a lot better (especially on offense) after Rudy Gay was lost for the season in Mar., and that was right around the same time San Antonio started resting their players and generally sitting on their huge lead in the standings.