NBA Finalists That Improved the Most In the Playoffs
Posted by Neil Paine on June 2, 2010
One of the biggest storylines of the 2010 playoffs has obviously been the Boston Celtics' totally unexpected postseason turnaround. From late December through the end of the regular season, the Celts were a very mediocre ballclub (literally average: they were .500 after Christmas), but in the playoffs they have looked -- and played -- like a completely different team, very nearly channeling the dominance of their 2008 championship squad. And lost amid the stories of Boston's playoff about-face has been the fact that the Lakers, owners of barely an above-average offense during the regular season, have morphed into an offensive juggernaut once again, as they were during the 2008 and 2009 regular seasons. In the history of the NBA, have any Finalists changed their identities more during the playoffs?
To answer that question, let's briefly go back to yesterday's post... There, I introduced a method of estimating team offensive and defensive ratings (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions) for years prior to 1974, which essentially opens up all of NBA history to us for studies like this (except 1951 -- unbelievably, they didn't even track rebounds that year). Today I want to use the same framework to see which Finalists most outperformed what we would have expected their playoff offensive & defensive ratings to be, given their regular-season numbers and the RS numbers of their playoff opponents.
During the regular season, we can broadly assume that every team played a league-average strength of schedule (this is not always exactly true, but as Ed Kupfer once pointed out to me, perceived team-by-team differences in regular-season SOS quality are wildly overstated). During the playoffs, we can characterize a team's SOS as the average of the regular-season efficiencies of the teams it faced in the playoffs, weighted by games played against each opponent. Then, to establish expected postseason efficiency levels, you just adjust the teams' regular-season numbers to what they "would be" if the team had faced their postseason SOS during the regular season, using the pythagorean formula (essentially the same process I used to translate offensive and defensive ratings for era in this post).
Let's take an example: during the regular season, the Lakers had an estimated ORtg (using the simplified possessions formula from yesterday) of 108.2 vs. a league average of 107.3. During the playoffs, their opponents have an average regular-season defensive rating of 107, so we would expect their playoff offensive rating to be 107.9, or (107 * (108.214 / (108.214 + 107.314))1/14) / ((1-(108.214 / (108.214 + 107.314)))1/14). In actuality, their estimated ORtg in the playoffs has been 112.5, so they've outperformed their expectation by +4.6. How does this stack up to other NBA Finalists from the past?
50 Biggest Offensive Improvements
(mouse over column headers for descriptions)
| Year | Team | RSeORtg | RSeLgRtg | avoppDRtg | POeORtg | POxORtg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952 | New York Knicks | 86.8 | 85.6 | 82.1 | 91.2 | 83.3 | 7.94 |
| 1954 | Minneapolis Lakers | 86.2 | 86.1 | 83.4 | 90.7 | 83.4 | 7.26 |
| 1963 | Los Angeles Lakers | 98.6 | 95.4 | 90.7 | 100.0 | 93.7 | 6.34 |
| 2001 | Los Angeles Lakers | 106.1 | 102.7 | 99.8 | 109.3 | 103.0 | 6.26 |
| 1952 | Minneapolis Lakers | 85.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | 92.1 | 86.6 | 5.49 |
| 1973 | New York Knicks | 101.5 | 98.5 | 94.1 | 102.1 | 96.9 | 5.17 |
| 1962 | Los Angeles Lakers | 95.0 | 93.3 | 89.7 | 96.1 | 91.3 | 4.86 |
| 1954 | Syracuse Nationals | 88.0 | 86.1 | 85.4 | 91.8 | 87.2 | 4.61 |
| 2010 | Los Angeles Lakers | 108.2 | 107.3 | 107.0 | 112.5 | 107.9 | 4.58 |
| 1966 | Los Angeles Lakers | 98.9 | 94.4 | 92.0 | 100.8 | 96.4 | 4.36 |
| 1972 | New York Knicks | 100.2 | 99.2 | 97.2 | 102.6 | 98.2 | 4.36 |
| 1961 | Boston Celtics | 89.5 | 91.6 | 90.2 | 92.4 | 88.1 | 4.33 |
| 1982 | Los Angeles Lakers | 109.4 | 106.2 | 103.7 | 110.9 | 106.9 | 4.04 |
| 1966 | Boston Celtics | 92.8 | 94.4 | 94.7 | 96.9 | 93.2 | 3.75 |
| 1986 | Boston Celtics | 111.2 | 106.9 | 105.8 | 113.7 | 110.0 | 3.69 |
| 1958 | St. Louis Hawks | 88.5 | 88.4 | 86.6 | 90.3 | 86.8 | 3.55 |
| 1999 | San Antonio Spurs | 103.9 | 102.5 | 99.4 | 103.8 | 100.7 | 3.08 |
| 1992 | Portland Trail Blazers | 111.0 | 107.3 | 104.7 | 111.2 | 108.3 | 2.92 |
| 1969 | Boston Celtics | 95.1 | 95.8 | 95.1 | 97.2 | 94.3 | 2.85 |
| 1957 | St. Louis Hawks | 88.3 | 88.8 | 86.5 | 88.8 | 86.1 | 2.70 |
| 1993 | Chicago Bulls | 111.4 | 107.4 | 104.8 | 111.3 | 108.7 | 2.62 |
| 2000 | Indiana Pacers | 109.1 | 103.8 | 100.1 | 107.7 | 105.3 | 2.48 |
| 1968 | Boston Celtics | 95.6 | 96.1 | 95.1 | 97.0 | 94.6 | 2.41 |
| 1978 | Seattle Supersonics | 100.0 | 101.7 | 100.3 | 100.9 | 98.6 | 2.29 |
| 1955 | Fort Wayne Pistons | 91.4 | 89.5 | 87.6 | 91.7 | 89.5 | 2.24 |
| 1951 | Rochester Royals | 91.0 | 84.6 | 84.1 | 92.7 | 90.4 | 2.22 |
| 2005 | San Antonio Spurs | 108.1 | 105.5 | 105.2 | 110.0 | 107.8 | 2.19 |
| 1994 | Houston Rockets | 107.6 | 106.3 | 103.2 | 106.7 | 104.5 | 2.16 |
| 1998 | Chicago Bulls | 107.6 | 105.4 | 104.3 | 108.5 | 106.4 | 2.02 |
| 1995 | Houston Rockets | 112.7 | 108.9 | 107.2 | 112.9 | 111.0 | 1.99 |
| 1988 | Los Angeles Lakers | 113.0 | 107.4 | 105.6 | 113.0 | 111.1 | 1.95 |
| 1989 | Los Angeles Lakers | 114.3 | 107.9 | 106.2 | 114.4 | 112.5 | 1.89 |
| 1991 | Chicago Bulls | 114.1 | 107.2 | 105.7 | 114.4 | 112.6 | 1.84 |
| 1983 | Philadelphia 76ers | 109.9 | 105.3 | 102.6 | 108.7 | 107.1 | 1.67 |
| 1960 | St. Louis Hawks | 93.6 | 90.8 | 88.3 | 92.5 | 91.0 | 1.53 |
| 1987 | Boston Celtics | 113.1 | 107.6 | 104.9 | 111.4 | 110.3 | 1.12 |
| 2005 | Detroit Pistons | 105.0 | 105.5 | 102.3 | 102.9 | 101.8 | 1.05 |
| 1965 | Los Angeles Lakers | 97.4 | 92.9 | 91.7 | 97.2 | 96.1 | 1.05 |
| 1986 | Houston Rockets | 108.5 | 106.9 | 105.0 | 107.6 | 106.6 | 0.98 |
| 2009 | Orlando Magic | 110.3 | 108.1 | 104.3 | 107.4 | 106.4 | 0.95 |
| 2006 | Miami Heat | 106.5 | 105.5 | 102.7 | 104.6 | 103.7 | 0.94 |
| 1987 | Los Angeles Lakers | 115.6 | 107.6 | 108.2 | 117.2 | 116.3 | 0.87 |
| 1976 | Phoenix Suns | 102.0 | 98.9 | 96.8 | 100.7 | 99.8 | 0.86 |
| 1959 | Minneapolis Lakers | 89.9 | 89.9 | 88.2 | 89.0 | 88.2 | 0.84 |
| 1984 | Boston Celtics | 110.4 | 107.3 | 105.6 | 109.5 | 108.7 | 0.81 |
| 1964 | San Francisco Warriors | 92.3 | 93.8 | 89.8 | 89.1 | 88.3 | 0.80 |
| 1970 | Los Angeles Lakers | 101.2 | 100.1 | 100.1 | 101.8 | 101.1 | 0.67 |
| 2000 | Los Angeles Lakers | 104.6 | 103.8 | 102.3 | 103.8 | 103.1 | 0.66 |
| 1999 | New York Knicks | 99.5 | 102.5 | 99.4 | 97.1 | 96.5 | 0.63 |
| 1985 | Los Angeles Lakers | 114.6 | 107.8 | 107.3 | 114.6 | 114.1 | 0.54 |
The Lakers have a long history of performing better on offense during the playoffs than you would expect from the regular-season numbers, and the 2010 version is no exception -- their +4.58 mark this year is the second-biggest offensive improvement by any Finalist in the last 37 years. The biggest? The 2001 Lakers, the most dominant playoff team ever.
But if you thought the 2010 Lakers' offense was dramatically better in the postseason, check out the 2010 Celtics' defensive improvement:
50 Biggest Defensive Improvements
| Year | Team | RSeDRtg | RSeLgRtg | avoppORtg | POeDRtg | POxDRtg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Los Angeles Lakers | 102.5 | 102.7 | 105.8 | 95.8 | 105.6 | 9.77 |
| 1998 | Utah Jazz | 104.3 | 105.4 | 108.1 | 97.3 | 106.9 | 9.54 |
| 1988 | Detroit Pistons | 104.0 | 107.4 | 111.0 | 98.7 | 107.4 | 8.70 |
| 2010 | Boston Celtics | 104.5 | 107.3 | 110.0 | 99.1 | 107.2 | 8.10 |
| 1981 | Boston Celtics | 104.1 | 106.2 | 108.8 | 99.8 | 106.7 | 6.93 |
| 1974 | Boston Celtics | 97.1 | 99.6 | 101.3 | 92.2 | 98.8 | 6.54 |
| 1967 | San Francisco Warriors | 93.3 | 95.7 | 98.3 | 89.4 | 95.8 | 6.42 |
| 1967 | Philadelphia 76ers | 94.4 | 95.7 | 97.2 | 89.6 | 95.9 | 6.37 |
| 1989 | Detroit Pistons | 103.5 | 107.9 | 110.6 | 99.8 | 106.1 | 6.34 |
| 1971 | Milwaukee Bucks | 97.3 | 98.3 | 99.3 | 92.0 | 98.3 | 6.26 |
| 1975 | Golden State Warriors | 98.2 | 98.8 | 98.3 | 91.4 | 97.7 | 6.24 |
| 2003 | San Antonio Spurs | 101.1 | 103.7 | 106.1 | 97.4 | 103.5 | 6.12 |
| 1999 | New York Knickerbockers | 98.3 | 102.5 | 105.1 | 94.8 | 100.8 | 5.98 |
| 1997 | Chicago Bulls | 103.3 | 108.1 | 111.2 | 100.4 | 106.3 | 5.86 |
| 1978 | Washington Bullets | 100.0 | 101.7 | 104.1 | 96.6 | 102.3 | 5.67 |
| 1971 | Baltimore Bullets | 96.5 | 98.3 | 100.9 | 93.4 | 99.1 | 5.65 |
| 1977 | Portland Trail Blazers | 99.5 | 101.0 | 103.4 | 96.3 | 101.9 | 5.57 |
| 2004 | Detroit Pistons | 96.7 | 103.3 | 103.9 | 91.8 | 97.4 | 5.53 |
| 1995 | Houston Rockets | 110.4 | 108.9 | 113.4 | 110.0 | 115.0 | 4.99 |
| 1972 | Los Angeles Lakers | 96.2 | 99.2 | 102.9 | 94.9 | 99.8 | 4.97 |
| 1984 | Los Angeles Lakers | 107.9 | 107.3 | 109.1 | 104.8 | 109.7 | 4.91 |
| 1969 | Los Angeles Lakers | 95.5 | 95.8 | 94.7 | 89.6 | 94.4 | 4.84 |
| 1986 | Houston Rockets | 106.0 | 106.9 | 109.6 | 103.9 | 108.7 | 4.81 |
| 1985 | Los Angeles Lakers | 107.5 | 107.8 | 110.5 | 105.4 | 110.2 | 4.75 |
| 1990 | Detroit Pistons | 102.0 | 107.3 | 111.0 | 100.8 | 105.5 | 4.73 |
| 1980 | Philadelphia 76ers | 103.6 | 106.3 | 108.7 | 101.4 | 105.9 | 4.49 |
| 1991 | Chicago Bulls | 104.7 | 107.2 | 108.5 | 101.5 | 106.0 | 4.49 |
| 1979 | Seattle Supersonics | 101.1 | 104.8 | 107.8 | 99.5 | 104.0 | 4.45 |
| 1981 | Houston Rockets | 107.1 | 106.2 | 107.8 | 104.2 | 108.7 | 4.44 |
| 1996 | Chicago Bulls | 103.3 | 108.6 | 110.7 | 100.9 | 105.3 | 4.39 |
| 2005 | Detroit Pistons | 100.6 | 105.5 | 106.7 | 97.5 | 101.8 | 4.35 |
| 2006 | Dallas Mavericks | 104.2 | 105.5 | 108.5 | 102.8 | 107.1 | 4.34 |
| 1964 | Boston Celtics | 84.5 | 93.8 | 95.5 | 81.8 | 86.1 | 4.31 |
| 2009 | Los Angeles Lakers | 104.4 | 108.1 | 110.0 | 102.0 | 106.3 | 4.29 |
| 1957 | Boston Celtics | 84.5 | 88.8 | 88.4 | 80.2 | 84.2 | 4.02 |
| 1951 | New York Knickerbockers | 86.4 | 84.6 | 88.2 | 86.0 | 90.0 | 3.98 |
| 1951 | Rochester Royals | 87.7 | 84.6 | 85.6 | 84.8 | 88.8 | 3.91 |
| 1956 | Fort Wayne Pistons | 89.9 | 89.8 | 90.4 | 86.7 | 90.5 | 3.80 |
| 1970 | Los Angeles Lakers | 99.4 | 100.1 | 102.8 | 98.3 | 102.0 | 3.75 |
| 1976 | Boston Celtics | 96.4 | 98.9 | 100.6 | 94.3 | 98.0 | 3.74 |
| 2008 | Los Angeles Lakers | 105.5 | 107.0 | 110.7 | 105.4 | 109.1 | 3.69 |
| 2007 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 100.8 | 106.8 | 108.2 | 98.6 | 102.1 | 3.51 |
| 1979 | Washington Bullets | 101.0 | 104.8 | 106.3 | 99.0 | 102.5 | 3.51 |
| 1956 | Philadelphia Warriors | 90.8 | 89.8 | 89.5 | 87.2 | 90.6 | 3.42 |
| 1997 | Utah Jazz | 103.6 | 108.1 | 111.4 | 103.4 | 106.8 | 3.41 |
| 2006 | Miami Heat | 102.3 | 105.5 | 107.0 | 100.5 | 103.8 | 3.29 |
| 1998 | Chicago Bulls | 99.7 | 105.4 | 109.4 | 100.3 | 103.5 | 3.17 |
| 1980 | Los Angeles Lakers | 105.5 | 106.3 | 107.7 | 103.7 | 106.9 | 3.15 |
| 2004 | Los Angeles Lakers | 99.7 | 103.3 | 103.0 | 96.3 | 99.4 | 3.09 |
| 1983 | Los Angeles Lakers | 106.5 | 105.3 | 108.8 | 107.0 | 110.0 | 3.08 |
The 2010 Celtics are the 4th-most-improved playoff team ever, trailing only the '88 Pistons, the '98 Jazz... and those pesky 2001 Lakers again. The Celts' defense has been better in these playoffs -- and against a tougher offensive SOS -- than they were during their epic 2008 regular-season run, when they were one of the best defenses of all time.
50 Biggest Overall Improvements
Add up the offensive and defensive improvements for each NBA Finalist, and what do you get? This list of the most improved overall Finalists in playoff history:
| Year | Team | RSeORtg | RSeDRtg | RSeLgRtg | avoppORtg | avoppDRtg | POeORtg | POeDRtg | POxORtg | POxDRtg | OffDiff | DefDiff | OvrDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Los Angeles Lakers | 106.1 | 102.5 | 102.7 | 105.8 | 99.8 | 109.3 | 95.8 | 103.0 | 105.6 | 6.26 | 9.77 | 16.03 |
| 2010 | Boston Celtics | 108.5 | 104.5 | 107.3 | 110.0 | 103.9 | 104.8 | 99.1 | 105.1 | 107.2 | -0.26 | 8.10 | 7.84 |
| 1954 | Minneapolis Lakers | 86.2 | 83.0 | 86.1 | 87.2 | 83.4 | 90.7 | 83.6 | 83.4 | 84.0 | 7.26 | 0.38 | 7.64 |
| 1995 | Houston Rockets | 112.7 | 110.4 | 108.9 | 113.4 | 107.2 | 112.9 | 110.0 | 111.0 | 115.0 | 1.99 | 4.99 | 6.98 |
| 1961 | Boston Celtics | 89.5 | 85.3 | 91.6 | 92.4 | 90.2 | 92.4 | 83.5 | 88.1 | 86.0 | 4.33 | 2.44 | 6.76 |
| 1999 | New York Knicks | 99.5 | 98.3 | 102.5 | 105.1 | 99.4 | 97.1 | 94.8 | 96.5 | 100.8 | 0.63 | 5.98 | 6.60 |
| 1972 | New York Knicks | 100.2 | 97.9 | 99.2 | 101.5 | 97.2 | 102.6 | 98.1 | 98.2 | 100.2 | 4.36 | 2.13 | 6.49 |
| 1991 | Chicago Bulls | 114.1 | 104.7 | 107.2 | 108.5 | 105.7 | 114.4 | 101.5 | 112.6 | 106.0 | 1.84 | 4.49 | 6.33 |
| 1951 | Rochester Royals | 91.0 | 87.7 | 84.6 | 85.6 | 84.1 | 92.7 | 84.8 | 90.4 | 88.8 | 2.22 | 3.91 | 6.13 |
| 1986 | Houston Rockets | 108.5 | 106.0 | 106.9 | 109.6 | 105.0 | 107.6 | 103.9 | 106.6 | 108.7 | 0.98 | 4.81 | 5.79 |
| 1989 | Detroit Pistons | 109.5 | 103.5 | 107.9 | 110.6 | 107.4 | 108.1 | 99.8 | 108.9 | 106.1 | -0.86 | 6.34 | 5.48 |
| 1974 | Boston Celtics | 100.7 | 97.1 | 99.6 | 101.3 | 97.6 | 97.6 | 92.2 | 98.7 | 98.8 | -1.12 | 6.54 | 5.42 |
| 2005 | Detroit Pistons | 105.0 | 100.6 | 105.5 | 106.7 | 102.3 | 102.9 | 97.5 | 101.8 | 101.8 | 1.05 | 4.35 | 5.40 |
| 1985 | Los Angeles Lakers | 114.6 | 107.5 | 107.8 | 110.5 | 107.3 | 114.6 | 105.4 | 114.1 | 110.2 | 0.54 | 4.75 | 5.29 |
| 1982 | Los Angeles Lakers | 109.4 | 104.8 | 106.2 | 107.7 | 103.7 | 110.9 | 105.1 | 106.9 | 106.3 | 4.04 | 1.23 | 5.27 |
| 1978 | Washington Bullets | 100.8 | 100.0 | 101.7 | 104.1 | 101.3 | 100.0 | 96.6 | 100.4 | 102.3 | -0.40 | 5.67 | 5.26 |
| 1984 | Los Angeles Lakers | 111.5 | 107.9 | 107.3 | 109.1 | 106.8 | 111.3 | 104.8 | 111.0 | 109.7 | 0.31 | 4.91 | 5.22 |
| 1998 | Chicago Bulls | 107.6 | 99.7 | 105.4 | 109.4 | 104.3 | 108.5 | 100.3 | 106.4 | 103.5 | 2.02 | 3.17 | 5.19 |
| 1993 | Chicago Bulls | 111.4 | 104.8 | 107.4 | 110.2 | 104.8 | 111.3 | 105.0 | 108.7 | 107.5 | 2.62 | 2.50 | 5.11 |
| 1971 | Baltimore Bullets | 97.0 | 96.5 | 98.3 | 100.9 | 96.1 | 94.2 | 93.4 | 94.9 | 99.1 | -0.65 | 5.65 | 5.00 |
| 1973 | New York Knicks | 101.5 | 94.9 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.1 | 102.1 | 97.1 | 96.9 | 96.6 | 5.17 | -0.48 | 4.69 |
| 1975 | Golden State Warriors | 101.2 | 98.2 | 98.8 | 98.3 | 95.8 | 96.5 | 91.4 | 98.2 | 97.7 | -1.63 | 6.24 | 4.61 |
| 1970 | Los Angeles Lakers | 101.2 | 99.4 | 100.1 | 102.8 | 100.1 | 101.8 | 98.3 | 101.1 | 102.0 | 0.67 | 3.75 | 4.42 |
| 2003 | San Antonio Spurs | 107.2 | 101.1 | 103.7 | 106.1 | 101.6 | 103.4 | 97.4 | 105.1 | 103.5 | -1.74 | 6.12 | 4.38 |
| 2004 | Detroit Pistons | 103.5 | 96.7 | 103.3 | 103.9 | 100.2 | 99.1 | 91.8 | 100.4 | 97.4 | -1.27 | 5.53 | 4.26 |
| 2006 | Miami Heat | 106.5 | 102.3 | 105.5 | 107.0 | 102.7 | 104.6 | 100.5 | 103.7 | 103.8 | 0.94 | 3.29 | 4.23 |
| 2009 | Los Angeles Lakers | 112.5 | 104.4 | 108.1 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 109.7 | 102.0 | 109.8 | 106.3 | -0.08 | 4.29 | 4.21 |
| 1981 | Boston Celtics | 110.0 | 104.1 | 106.2 | 108.8 | 105.1 | 106.0 | 99.8 | 108.8 | 106.7 | -2.86 | 6.93 | 4.07 |
| 1994 | Houston Rockets | 107.6 | 103.0 | 106.3 | 108.5 | 103.2 | 106.7 | 103.2 | 104.5 | 105.1 | 2.16 | 1.91 | 4.06 |
| 1990 | Detroit Pistons | 108.3 | 102.0 | 107.3 | 111.0 | 107.9 | 108.2 | 100.8 | 108.9 | 105.5 | -0.73 | 4.73 | 4.00 |
| 1996 | Chicago Bulls | 116.9 | 103.3 | 108.6 | 110.7 | 105.6 | 113.2 | 100.9 | 113.6 | 105.3 | -0.45 | 4.39 | 3.94 |
| 1986 | Boston Celtics | 111.2 | 102.0 | 106.9 | 108.6 | 105.8 | 113.7 | 103.5 | 110.0 | 103.6 | 3.69 | 0.16 | 3.86 |
| 2010 | Los Angeles Lakers | 108.2 | 103.1 | 107.3 | 111.8 | 107.0 | 112.5 | 108.2 | 107.9 | 107.5 | 4.58 | -0.77 | 3.81 |
| 1971 | Milwaukee Bucks | 108.5 | 97.3 | 98.3 | 99.3 | 98.6 | 106.1 | 92.0 | 108.9 | 98.3 | -2.77 | 6.26 | 3.49 |
| 1987 | Los Angeles Lakers | 115.6 | 106.5 | 107.6 | 109.8 | 108.2 | 117.2 | 106.1 | 116.3 | 108.6 | 0.87 | 2.56 | 3.43 |
| 1988 | Detroit Pistons | 109.1 | 104.0 | 107.4 | 111.0 | 107.0 | 103.5 | 98.7 | 108.7 | 107.4 | -5.29 | 8.70 | 3.41 |
| 1979 | Seattle Supersonics | 103.8 | 101.1 | 104.8 | 107.8 | 104.1 | 102.0 | 99.5 | 103.1 | 104.0 | -1.09 | 4.45 | 3.36 |
| 2006 | Dallas Mavericks | 111.0 | 104.2 | 105.5 | 108.5 | 102.8 | 107.2 | 102.8 | 108.2 | 107.1 | -0.99 | 4.34 | 3.35 |
| 1983 | Philadelphia 76ers | 109.9 | 102.4 | 105.3 | 106.7 | 102.6 | 108.7 | 102.1 | 107.1 | 103.7 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 3.31 |
| 1963 | Los Angeles Lakers | 98.6 | 95.9 | 95.4 | 94.1 | 90.7 | 100.0 | 97.9 | 93.7 | 94.6 | 6.34 | -3.24 | 3.10 |
| 1966 | Boston Celtics | 92.8 | 88.8 | 94.4 | 97.2 | 94.7 | 96.9 | 92.2 | 93.2 | 91.4 | 3.75 | -0.76 | 2.99 |
| 1964 | Boston Celtics | 90.9 | 84.5 | 93.8 | 95.5 | 91.1 | 87.0 | 81.8 | 88.3 | 86.1 | -1.32 | 4.31 | 2.99 |
| 1967 | Philadelphia 76ers | 102.1 | 94.4 | 95.7 | 97.2 | 94.1 | 97.0 | 89.6 | 100.5 | 95.9 | -3.50 | 6.37 | 2.87 |
| 1952 | New York Knicks | 86.8 | 86.1 | 85.6 | 87.3 | 82.1 | 91.2 | 92.8 | 83.3 | 87.7 | 7.94 | -5.11 | 2.82 |
| 2004 | Los Angeles Lakers | 103.8 | 99.7 | 103.3 | 103.0 | 97.1 | 97.3 | 96.3 | 97.6 | 99.4 | -0.36 | 3.09 | 2.73 |
| 1980 | Los Angeles Lakers | 111.2 | 105.5 | 106.3 | 107.7 | 103.6 | 107.9 | 103.7 | 108.4 | 106.9 | -0.43 | 3.15 | 2.71 |
| 1968 | Boston Celtics | 95.6 | 92.2 | 96.1 | 98.6 | 95.1 | 97.0 | 94.4 | 94.6 | 94.7 | 2.41 | 0.25 | 2.66 |
| 2002 | Los Angeles Lakers | 106.9 | 99.3 | 104.2 | 107.3 | 101.1 | 103.6 | 99.6 | 103.6 | 102.3 | 0.00 | 2.63 | 2.63 |
| 1980 | Philadelphia 76ers | 107.7 | 103.6 | 106.3 | 108.7 | 104.1 | 103.7 | 101.4 | 105.5 | 105.9 | -1.86 | 4.49 | 2.63 |
| 1977 | Portland Trail Blazers | 104.7 | 99.5 | 101.0 | 103.4 | 100.0 | 100.7 | 96.3 | 103.7 | 101.9 | -3.00 | 5.57 | 2.57 |
So the 2010 Celtics are the second-most improved playoff team ever, having tacked on +7.8 points of estimated efficiency differential to what you would expect their performance to be in the playoffs. However, that's a distant 2nd place behind the 2001 Lakers, still owners of the most improbable postseason run in NBA history: the '01 Lakers essentially went from a good but not great team during the regular-season to arguably the greatest team of all time during the playoffs!
Past performance is still the best predictor of future results, of course -- but as these teams showed, it's hardly a 100% foolproof method of predicting playoff success.
June 2nd, 2010 at 2:22 pm
Very nice work.
Those 2001 Lakers sure are in a class by themselves. More than twice as improved as anyone else.
The '95 Rockets and '99 Knicks rank in the top 6.
Of those early '70s Knicks teams, it's the 1972 edition that was most improved. They knocked off the favored Celtics 4-1.
Nice work. Did I say that already?
June 2nd, 2010 at 3:04 pm
The 2001 Lakers were not exactly a secret before the playoffs. They'd won their last 8 & were in the middle of a 3 year title run. Most of the teams that improved in the playoffs seem like that - great teams that were beat up or resting during the regular season, not ordinary teams that caught fire.
Or maybe that's just how they seem afterwards. Is there a way to measure expectations & reputation before & after a season?
June 2nd, 2010 at 4:44 pm
For the most part I see teams whose best players got healthy late in the season or who had significant signings last in the season. The 2001 Lakers got a healthy, in shape Shaq at the end. The 2010 Celtics got healthy KG & Pierce ready to play. The '95 Rockets picked up Clyde. The '99 Knicks picked up Spree and Camby. The '91 Bulls break that mold. I don't really remember that regular season anymore, but nobody expected that team to dominate the playoffs the way they did. Other than a monster game by Charles Barkley in round 2 and a stroke of bad luck in game 1 of the finals (MJ game winner rimout), they went through untouched.
June 2nd, 2010 at 5:47 pm
I haven't looked at it systematically, but it seems like a lot of these teams had won a championship recently. Slacking off in the regular season seems to be a real phenomenon.
June 3rd, 2010 at 8:54 am
Great work.
I'm surprised the 95 Rockets rank behind the 10 Celtics.
They had an even worse regular season and pulled a last minute trade that sounded a bit desperate at the time (Clyde had been on the decline for 2+ years, Otis Thorpe was a valuable PF next to Hakeem, who after the trade had to pretty much take care of the paint on his own, not an esay task for a 32 year-old center...).
The Celtics at least had home court advantage in the 1st round and a relatively weak opponent with the Heat to gather some steam whereas the Rockets had to defeat nothing less than the best 4 teams of the regular season, and they even somehow found a way to sweep one of them.