Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #5 Denver
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Oklahoma City Thunder
55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)
PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)
Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Russell Westbrook | 82 | 2847 | 4.46 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 0.159 | 23.6 |
| SG | Thabo Sefolosha | 79 | 2049 | 0.10 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.097 | 10.4 |
| SF | Kevin Durant | 78 | 3038 | 4.97 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.189 | 23.6 |
| PF | Serge Ibaka | 82 | 2216 | -0.13 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.164 | 17.6 |
| C | Kendrick Perkins | 29 | 742 | -3.35 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.063 | 9.6 |
| SG | James Harden | 82 | 2189 | 2.40 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 0.156 | 16.4 |
| PF | Nick Collison | 71 | 1524 | -1.56 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.113 | 10.8 |
| C | Nazr Mohammed | 75 | 1280 | -1.30 | 0.1 | -1.9 | 0.100 | 15.9 |
| PG | Eric Maynor | 82 | 1200 | -3.35 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.061 | 11.7 |
| SF | Daequan Cook | 43 | 598 | -0.17 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 0.126 | 12.8 |
| SG | Nate Robinson | 59 | 1013 | -2.00 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 0.051 | 10.0 |
| PG | Royal Ivey | 25 | 155 | -3.93 | -0.7 | -3.8 | 0.060 | 8.2 |
| C | Cole Aldrich | 18 | 141 | -2.78 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.066 | 7.1 |
| C | Byron Mullens | 13 | 85 | -11.38 | -0.1 | -1.9 | -0.113 | 3.5 |
Denver Nuggets
50-32, 2nd in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: George Karl (50-32)
PTS/G: 107.5 (1st of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 102.7 (21st of 30)
SRS: 4.80 (7th of 30) ▪ Pace: 95.6 (2nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 112.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.3 (16th of 30)
Expected W-L: 54-28 (7th of 30)
Arena: Pepsi Center ▪ Attendance: 696,568 (16th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Ty Lawson | 80 | 2103 | 1.67 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.153 | 17.9 |
| SG | Arron Afflalo | 69 | 2324 | -0.22 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.128 | 13.6 |
| SF | Wilson Chandler | 72 | 2401 | -0.72 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.079 | 14.6 |
| PF | Kenyon Martin | 48 | 1233 | 0.38 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.104 | 14.1 |
| C | Nene Hilario | 75 | 2291 | 4.15 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 0.201 | 20.4 |
| PG | Raymond Felton | 75 | 2737 | 1.78 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.094 | 16.6 |
| SF | Danilo Gallinari | 62 | 2104 | 0.47 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.139 | 15.7 |
| SG | J.R. Smith | 79 | 1968 | 2.86 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 0.121 | 16.4 |
| PF | Al Harrington | 73 | 1665 | -0.69 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.060 | 12.3 |
| C | Chris Andersen | 45 | 732 | 1.60 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 0.207 | 19.0 |
| SF | Gary Forbes | 63 | 791 | -3.91 | -1.9 | -2.2 | 0.055 | 11.6 |
| C | Timofey Mozgov | 45 | 524 | -4.78 | -1.8 | -1.8 | 0.053 | 10.8 |
| C | Kosta Koufos | 50 | 434 | -5.44 | -0.5 | -2.7 | 0.027 | 12.6 |
| PF | Melvin Ely | 30 | 366 | -4.88 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.083 | 8.3 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | OKC | DEN | Prob | Games | OKC | DEN | Prob | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 20.7% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25.2% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 18.4% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17.8% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 13.4% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14.0% | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 12.6% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13.9% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 11.8% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12.7% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 11.4% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7.2% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 7.2% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7.2% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 4.4% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2.1% | |
| OKC | 46.8% | OKC | 30.4% | |||||
| DEN | 53.2% | DEN | 69.6% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 15th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
OKC is a gigantic question mark. I like them enough to win the title, but I like Denver enough to upset them in the first round.
April 15th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
OKC should be the West favorite simply by injury status of other teams better than them. DEN should be favored with how their new team is performing.
NBA Championship being played in the first round this year.
April 15th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Nah it isn't.
April 15th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
How much weight should be placed on the two games they played recently? OKC seemed to be toying with them. I just don't think Denver is built for the playoffs.
April 16th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Where did you get the RAPM and 4-year APM numbers?
April 16th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Because I'm a moron, I forgot to credit Jeremias Engelmann's site for that data:
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/
1,000 apologies for that; I've added a note to the bottom of each page.