Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #6 Portland
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Dallas Mavericks
57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)
PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)
Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jason Kidd | 80 | 2653 | 3.78 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 0.116 | 14.4 |
| SG | Rodrigue Beaubois | 28 | 496 | -0.83 | -1.1 | -1.6 | 0.022 | 11.4 |
| SF | Shawn Marion | 80 | 2253 | 0.03 | -2.2 | 0.8 | 0.120 | 17.0 |
| PF | Dirk Nowitzki | 73 | 2504 | 4.89 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 0.213 | 23.4 |
| C | Tyson Chandler | 74 | 2059 | 2.99 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.218 | 18.4 |
| SG | Jason Terry | 82 | 2564 | 0.81 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.100 | 15.9 |
| PG | Jose Barea | 81 | 1669 | -1.65 | 0.9 | -1.7 | 0.093 | 14.8 |
| C | Brendan Haywood | 72 | 1331 | -3.21 | -2.1 | 1.4 | 0.104 | 11.7 |
| PF | Brian Cardinal | 56 | 618 | 0.44 | -1.2 | 1.1 | 0.132 | 9.7 |
| SF | Peja Stojakovic | 33 | 617 | -0.03 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 0.126 | 15.2 |
| SG | Corey Brewer | 69 | 1510 | -0.75 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.036 | 11.0 |
| SF | DeShawn Stevenson | 72 | 1158 | -3.11 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.074 | 9.8 |
| SF | Caron Butler | 29 | 867 | -0.89 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.067 | 14.2 |
| PF | Ian Mahinmi | 56 | 488 | 0.30 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.177 | 13.7 |
| SG | Dominique Jones | 18 | 135 | -6.28 | -0.6 | -0.7 | 0.007 | 10.6 |
Portland Trail Blazers
48-34, 3rd in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Nate McMillan (48-34)
PTS/G: 96.3 (24th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.8 (7th of 30)
SRS: 1.84 (12th of 30) ▪ Pace: 87.9 (30th of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.8 (10th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.1 (14th of 30)
Expected W-L: 46-36 (12th of 30)
Arena: Rose Garden Arena ▪ Attendance: 840,924 (2nd of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Andre Miller | 81 | 2650 | 1.56 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.127 | 17.8 |
| SG | Wes Matthews | 82 | 2758 | 1.60 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.126 | 15.5 |
| SF | Nicolas Batum | 80 | 2522 | 0.70 | -1.7 | 0.9 | 0.126 | 14.8 |
| PF | Gerald Wallace | 71 | 2693 | 2.53 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.111 | 16.2 |
| C | LaMarcus Aldridge | 81 | 3211 | 2.24 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 0.166 | 21.5 |
| SG | Rudy Fernandez | 78 | 1821 | 1.06 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.100 | 13.4 |
| C | Marcus Camby | 59 | 1540 | 0.49 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.116 | 14.8 |
| SG | Brandon Roy | 47 | 1310 | -2.16 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 0.077 | 13.9 |
| PG | Patrick Mills | 64 | 783 | -3.13 | -2.7 | -3.8 | 0.044 | 13.0 |
| PG | Armon Johnson | 38 | 277 | -8.32 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.044 | 9.3 |
| C | Jarron Collins | 28 | 181 | -8.84 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.016 | 1.6 |
| PF | Chris Johnson | 14 | 138 | -4.65 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 0.080 | 10.2 |
| SF | Luke Babbitt | 24 | 137 | -12.02 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.143 | 1.0 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | DAL | POR | Prob | Games | DAL | POR | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 23.1% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.6% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.3% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19.8% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 17.0% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15.6% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 11.8% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14.5% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 10.9% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10.7% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 9.1% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8.4% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 5.1% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6.8% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 2.6% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3.6% | |
| DAL | 71.3% | DAL | 64.4% | |||||
| POR | 28.7% | POR | 35.6% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 15th, 2011 at 9:18 pm
As a Portland fan, I'm slightly nervous about the number of pundits picking the Blazers to win. It gives me some hope that is likely not justified by Portland's recent playoff track record, especially with Nate McMillan as coach, although he has been better this year.